1. Since its establishment half a century ago, the international atomic energy agency (iaea) has always played the role of focal point in promoting worldwide cooperation in the peaceful USES of nuclear technology, enhancing global nuclear safety and security, and ensuring compliance through verification activities with international obligations on nuclear materials and facilities for peaceful purposes.The following sections provide an overview of the "nuclear developments" achieved worldwide in 2008 within the framework of the three pillars: technology, safety and security and verification, and their impact on the work of the iaea.  technology Nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle and sustainable developmentCurrent situation and trend of nuclear power2. 2008 was an abnormal year for nuclear power.No new reactors have been added to the grid, although projections for the future of nuclear power have been revised upward.This is the first year since 1955 that no new reactors have been put into operation.But construction began on 10 new reactors, the most since 1985.By the end of 2008, a total of 44 nuclear-powered reactors were under construction and 438 were operating, providing about 14 percent of the world's electricity.3. Current developments and near-term and long-term growth prospects remain asia-centric.Of the 10 reactors that began construction in 2008, eight were in the area.Of the 44 reactors under construction at the end of 2008, 28 were in Asia.In addition, 28 of the 39 new reactors brought online in recent years are in the region.On a country-by-country basis, China is considering sharply increasing its nuclear power growth targets.Six of the 10 reactors under construction in 2008 were in China.India's plan to expand its civilian nuclear power programme 15-fold over the next 20 years is expected to be boosted by the lifting in 2008 of restrictions on the supply of nuclear technology previously imposed by suppliers.The Russian federation has raised its target for nuclear power capacity to 52 to 59 gigawatts (gw) by 2020.The NRC has received joint license applications for 18 new reactors, bringing the total under review to 26.4. In 2008, the iaea revised up its medium-term forecast for nuclear power, raising its low and high forecasts for 2030 to 473 gigawatts (gw) 1 and 748 gw (gw) respectively (figure 1).The international energy agency also raised its forecast.Innovative nuclear technology5. Iaea continued to promote coordination and information sharing in the field of technological innovation and development.In particular, iaea has compiled a summary of developing country expectations and prepared a "user general consideration" for the development of appropriate designs in the near future.Six countries completed the evaluation of innovative nuclear systems using the evaluation methodology developed by the iaea international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles, and eight other countries completed similar joint studies.The methodology of the international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles will be updated with the results obtained.6. A "fourth generation international forum" was established to lead the world's leading nuclear powers in developing next-generation nuclear energy systems to meet future energy needs.In 2008, China signed a "system arrangement" for joint work on ultra-high temperature reactors.France, Japan and the United States are coordinating prototype sodium-cooled fast reactors.Other projects on system integration, safety and operation, advanced fuels, nuclear power plant supporting subitems and the global actinide cycle international demonstration are under way.Iaea and the fourth international forum organized a workshop on the use of software to evaluate the economics of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors in October.Supply to ensure7. In 2008, the director general's proposal to establish an iaea-sponsored stockpile of nuclear fuel as a last resort to prevent supply disruptions received a number of positive responses.In September 2006, the initiative against the nuclear threat proposed to contribute us $50 million to the iaea with an additional contribution of us $100 million from member states.By the end of 2008, Norway ($5 million), the united Arab emirates ($10 million), the United States ($50 million) and the European Union (25 million euros) to support the iaea may establish low-enriched uranium reserves to provide the contributions and made donors, so that the iaea has very close to the required amount of $150 million.3 also in 2008, progress was made on other proposals made by member states relating to fuel supply guarantees.4 these include the German proposal to establish a "multilateral enrichment protected area project", 5, and the Russian federation's initiative to establish a stockpile of low enriched uranium at the angarsk international uranium enrichment centre to be made available to iaea for use by its member states upon request.

1. 國際原子能機構成立半個世紀以來，在促進世界范圍和平利用核技術合作、提高全球核安全和核保安以及通過核查活動確保核材料和核設施用于和平目的的國際義務得到遵守方面始終發(fā)揮著協(xié)調(diào)中心的作用。以下各節(jié)概述了 2008 年全世界在三個支柱即技術、安全與保安和核查的框架內(nèi)實現(xiàn)的“核發(fā)展”以及這些發(fā)展對原子能機構工作產(chǎn)生的影響。

技 術

核電、核燃料循環(huán)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展

核電的現(xiàn)狀與趨勢

2. 2008 年對于核電是反常的一年。雖然對核電今后發(fā)展的預測作了上調(diào)，但卻沒有任何新反應堆并入電網(wǎng)。這是 1955 年以來第一年沒有任何一座新反應堆投入運行。但有 10 座新反應堆開工建設，這是 1985 年以來歷年中數(shù)量最多的一年。到 2008 年底， 總共有 44 座核動力反應堆正在建造，438 座正在運行，供電量占全世界發(fā)電總量的約14%。

3. 當前的發(fā)展以及近期和遠期的增長前景仍以亞洲為中心。在 2008 年開工建設的 10 座反應堆中，8 座在該地區(qū)。在截至 2008 年底正在建造的 44 座反應堆中，有 28 座在亞洲。此外，在近年并網(wǎng)的 39 座新反應堆中，有 28 座在該地區(qū)。就各個國家而言， 中國正在考慮大幅提高其核電增長目標。2008 年開工建設的 10 座反應堆中有 6 座在中國。印度計劃在今后 20 年中將其民用核電計劃擴大 15 倍，而 2008 年供應國取消以前對印度施加的核技術供應限制預計將對印度的這一計劃起到促進作用。俄羅斯聯(lián)邦提高了目標，其核電裝機容量計劃到 2020 年達到 52 至 59 吉瓦（電）。美國核管理委員會收到了 18 座新反應堆的聯(lián)合許可證申請，從而使正在審查之中的新反應堆總數(shù)達到26 座。

   4.2008 年，原子能機構上調(diào)了其對核電的中期預測，將對 2030 年的低值預測和高值預測分別上調(diào)到了 473 吉瓦（電）¹ 和 748 吉瓦（電）（圖 1）。國際能源機構也上調(diào)了其預測。

創(chuàng)新型核技術

   5.  原子能機構繼續(xù)促進技術創(chuàng)新和發(fā)展領域的協(xié)調(diào)和信息共享。具體而言，原子能機構對發(fā)展中國家的預期進行了匯總，編寫了在近期開發(fā)適當設計時的“用戶通用考慮因素”。六個國家使用原子能機構“革新型核反應堆和燃料循環(huán)國際項目”制訂的評價方法學完成了對革新型核系統(tǒng)的評定，另有八個國家也完成了類似的聯(lián)合研究。將使用取得的結果更新“革新型核反應堆和燃料循環(huán)國際項目”的方法學。

6. 設立了“第四代國際論壇”，目的是引領全世界主要的核技術國家開發(fā)下一代核能系統(tǒng)，以滿足未來的能源需求。2008 年，中國簽署了聯(lián)合開展超高溫反應堆工作的“系統(tǒng)安排”。法國、日本和美國正在協(xié)調(diào)開展原型鈉冷快堆工作。關于系統(tǒng)整合、安全和運行、先進燃料、核電廠配套子項和“全球錒系元素循環(huán)國際論證”的其他項目正在執(zhí)行之中。原子能機構和“第四代國際論壇”于 10 月組織了一個關于使用軟件評價高溫氣冷堆經(jīng)濟性的講習班。

供應保證

7.2008 年，總干事關于作為最后手段建立由原子能機構主持的核燃料儲備以防供應中斷的建議得到了許多積極響應。2006 年 9 月，“反對核威脅倡議”提出在成員國追加捐款 1 億美元的情況下向原子能機構捐款 5000 萬美元。到 2008 年底，挪威（500 萬美元）、阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國（1000 萬美元）、美國（5000 萬美元）和歐洲聯(lián)盟（2500 萬歐元）為支持原子能機構可能建立的低濃鈾儲備提供了捐款和作出了認捐，從而使原子能機構已非常接近為此所需的 1.5 億美元的總額。³ 也是在 2008 年，在成員國提出的與燃料供應保證有關的其他建議方面也取得了進展。⁴ 這些建議包括德國關于設立“多邊濃縮保護區(qū)項目”的建議，⁵ 以及俄羅斯聯(lián)邦關于在安加爾斯克國際鈾濃縮中心建立低濃鈾儲備以便在原子能機構提出要求后提供給原子能機構供其成員國使用的倡議。