1. For nearly 60 years, the international atomic energy agency has pursued the objective of providing member states with nuclear science and technology in a safe, reliable and peaceful manner.During this period, it has adjusted its programme of work within the framework of the statute to meet the changing needs and development objectives of member states.2. Iaea's activities in 2015 were balanced in its main areas of work: technology transfer, safety and security, and verification.During the year, the iaea supported its member states in using nuclear science and technology to achieve their development goals and address a range of global challenges -- from meeting growing energy needs and protecting the environment, to improving food security and human health in a sustainable manner.At the same time, it is committed to promoting and strengthening global nuclear safety and security, and to promoting non-proliferation by preventing the use of nuclear materials and facilities for non-peaceful purposes.In this way, the iaea has contributed to global peace, security and development and has truly improved the lives of people everywhere.3. The following is a report on iaea activities for 2015. Nuclear technologyNuclear powerStatus and trends4. Global nuclear power generation capacity increased in 2015 to 382.9 gigawatts at the end of the year.The number of nuclear-powered reactors in transit rose to 441 in 2015, with 10 new reactors connected to the grid, the highest since 1993.That year, construction began on seven reactors, bringing the total number under construction around the world to 67, and seven reactors were shut down permanently.5. Iaea projections for 2030 show global nuclear capacity growth of 2 per cent under the low growth scenario and 68 per cent under the high growth scenario.The forecasts are lower than those for 2014 because of uncertainty about energy policy, license renewals, reactor closures and future construction.These figures take into account the decommissioning of power plants;Actual new capacity over the next 15 years would be about 150 gw under a low-growth scenario and 300 gw under a high-growth scenario(electric).Short - and long-term growth prospects remain concentrated in Asia, with Africa, eastern Europe and Latin America also expected to grow.The main conference6. In June, an international conference on "spent fuel management in nuclear-powered reactors: integrated fuel cycle back-end programmes" was held at iaea headquarters in Vienna, with the participation of 207 representatives from 39 member states and five international organizations.Participants discussed key issues including the safety of spent fuel management and the strategy of spent fuel management.The need for an integrated fuel cycle back-end programme, particularly for processing, storage, transport and disposal, and for a holistic approach to spent fuel management was stressed.7. In November, iaea organized its largest research reactor conference to date, the international conference on safety management and efficient utilization of research reactors.The meeting in Vienna attracted 300 participants from 56 member states.The conclusions of the meeting included that operators should ensure the sustainability of research reactors through appropriate strategic planning, that iaea safety standards and nuclear security guidelines should be integrated into their operation, and that greater use of networking should be made to learn from peers.Climate change and sustainable development8. The 21st session of the parties to the United Nations framework convention on climate change (unfccc), held in Paris on 11 December, 30 November, adopted a new binding agreement on climate change.The Paris agreement acknowledges the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.At the same time, worldwide energy demand is expected to grow.Climate change and nuclear power 2015, an iaea publication launched in preparation for the 21st session of the unfccc, describes how nuclear energy, as one of the low-carbon energy sources available today, can help address this "climate-energy challenge".Energy assessment service9. Iaea continues to provide energy assessment services to member states, including assistance, upon request, in energy planning studies.These studies will help countries assess how different technologies, including nuclear power, can potentially help them meet their energy needs.In 2015, iaea continued to build the capacity of member states to carry out "nuclear energy system assessment" in accordance with the methodology developed by the agency's international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles.In 2015, the nuclear energy system assessment was launched in Malaysia and is being carried out in Indonesia, Romania and Ukraine.Support in transit for nuclear power plants10. Many operators have invested in enhancing the safety and security of their nuclear plants and improving their reliability, while coping with increased operating costs and low electricity prices.This has implications for the cost of nuclear power generation and could affect the long-term economic sustainability of power plants.A technical meeting of 35 participants from 16 member countries, held in Helsinki, Finland, in May, assessed the economic impact and identified the drivers of technology, management and external costs that affect long-term operations.Commencement of nuclear programme11. In order to strengthen support for the "new nuclear start-up states", the 30 or so member states currently considering or planning nuclear power plans, lessons learned from the first six years of the working group visit to the comprehensive nuclear infrastructure review were reviewed and published.Iaea also updated the "national nuclear infrastructure profiles" and the "integrated work plans" of several countries, which were subsequently used to plan iaea activities for 2016-2017.In 2015, the iucr working group visited Kenya, Morocco and Nigeria.

1. 近 60 年來，國際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)一直追求以安全、可靠和和平的方式向成員國提供核科學(xué)技術(shù)的目標(biāo)。這期間，它在《規(guī)約》的框架內(nèi)調(diào)整了工作計(jì)劃，以使其與解決成員國不斷變化的需求和發(fā)展目標(biāo)相適應(yīng)。

2. 原子能機(jī)構(gòu) 2015 年的活動(dòng)在其主要工作領(lǐng)域得到了平衡：技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓、安全和安保、核查。這一年，原子能機(jī)構(gòu)支持其成員國利用核科學(xué)技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)自己的發(fā)展目標(biāo)和應(yīng)對(duì)一系列全球性挑戰(zhàn) — 從滿足日益增長的能源需求和保護(hù)環(huán)境，到以可持續(xù)的方式改善糧食安全和人體健康。與此同時(shí)，它致力于促進(jìn)和加強(qiáng)全球核安全和核安保， 以及通過防止核材料和核設(shè)施用于非和平目的促進(jìn)不擴(kuò)散。原子能機(jī)構(gòu)以這種方式促進(jìn)了全球和平、安全與發(fā)展，并真正改善了世界各地人們的生活。

3. 以下是 2015 年原子能機(jī)構(gòu)活動(dòng)的報(bào)告。

核 技 術(shù)

核電

狀況和趨勢

4. 全球核能發(fā)電容量在 2015 年有所增長，在年終達(dá)到 382.9 吉瓦（電）。在運(yùn)核動(dòng)力堆的數(shù)量在 2015 年增加至 441 座，有 10 座新反應(yīng)堆并網(wǎng)發(fā)電，創(chuàng) 1993 年以來新高。這一年，開工建設(shè)七座反應(yīng)堆，這使得世界各地在建反應(yīng)堆的總數(shù)達(dá)到 67 座，七座反應(yīng)堆被永久關(guān)閉。

5. 原子能機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì) 2030 年的預(yù)測顯示，全球核電容量增長在低增長情景假設(shè)下為 2%， 在高增長情景假設(shè)下為 68%。由于有關(guān)能源政策、許可證展期、反應(yīng)堆關(guān)閉和未來建設(shè)的不確定性，這些預(yù)測值均低于 2014 年的預(yù)測值。這些數(shù)字考慮到電廠退役；今后 15 年的實(shí)際新增容量在低增長情景下約為 150 吉瓦（電），在高增長情景下為 300 吉瓦

（電）。短期和長期增長前景仍然集中在亞洲，非洲、東歐和拉丁美洲也有望增長。

主要會(huì)議

6. 6 月，在原子能機(jī)構(gòu)維也納總部舉行了“核動(dòng)力堆乏燃料管理：燃料循環(huán)后端綜合方案”國際會(huì)議，來自 39 個(gè)成員國和五個(gè)國際組織的 207 名代表參加了會(huì)議。與會(huì)者討論了包括乏燃料管理安全和乏燃料管理戰(zhàn)略在內(nèi)的一些關(guān)鍵問題。會(huì)議強(qiáng)調(diào)了尤其在加工、貯存、運(yùn)輸和處置方面采取燃料循環(huán)后端綜合方案的必要性，以及采取乏燃料管理整體觀的必要性。

   7.11 月，原子能機(jī)構(gòu)組織了其迄今為止規(guī)模最大的研究堆會(huì)議 —“研究堆安全管理和有效利用”國際會(huì)議。這次會(huì)議在維也納舉行，吸引了來自 56 個(gè)成員國的 300 名與會(huì)者。會(huì)議得出的結(jié)論包括，營運(yùn)者應(yīng)當(dāng)通過適當(dāng)?shù)膽?zhàn)略規(guī)劃確保研究堆的可持續(xù)性，應(yīng)當(dāng)將原子能機(jī)構(gòu)安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和核安保導(dǎo)則綜合納入到它們的運(yùn)行中，以及應(yīng)當(dāng)更多地利用聯(lián)網(wǎng)向同行學(xué)習(xí)。

氣候變化和可持續(xù)發(fā)展

8. 11 月 30 日至 12 月 11 日在法國巴黎舉行的《聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約》締約方第二十一屆會(huì)議（“氣候變化公約”第二十一屆會(huì)議）通過了關(guān)于氣候變化的新的有約束力的協(xié)定。“巴黎協(xié)定”承認(rèn)，盡快需要減少全球溫室氣體排放。與此同時(shí)，世界范圍的能源需求預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)增長。在“氣候變化公約”第二十一屆會(huì)議籌備期間推出的原子能機(jī)構(gòu)出版物《2015 年氣候變化與核電》，介紹了核能作為當(dāng)今可用的低碳能源來源之一，能夠幫助應(yīng)對(duì)這一“氣候-能源挑戰(zhàn)”。

能源評(píng)定服務(wù)

9. 原子能機(jī)構(gòu)繼續(xù)向成員國提供能源評(píng)定服務(wù)，包括根據(jù)請求協(xié)助它們開展能源規(guī)劃研究。這些研究有助于各國評(píng)價(jià)包括核電在內(nèi)的不同技術(shù)如何能夠潛在地幫助它們滿足能源需求。2015 年，原子能機(jī)構(gòu)繼續(xù)建設(shè)成員國按照原子能機(jī)構(gòu)“革新型核反應(yīng)堆和燃料循環(huán)國際項(xiàng)目”開發(fā)的方法學(xué)開展“核能系統(tǒng)評(píng)定”的能力。2015 年，在馬來西亞啟動(dòng)了“核能系統(tǒng)評(píng)定”，并正在印度尼西亞、羅馬尼亞和烏克蘭進(jìn)行該項(xiàng)評(píng)定。

支持在運(yùn)核電廠

10. 許多營運(yùn)者已投資加強(qiáng)其核電廠的安全和安保并提高其可靠性，同時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì)增加的運(yùn)營成本和低電價(jià)。這對(duì)核能發(fā)電的成本產(chǎn)生影響，并可能影響電廠長期運(yùn)行的經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)性。5 月在芬蘭赫爾辛基舉行的有來自 16 個(gè)成員國的 35 人參加的技術(shù)會(huì)議，評(píng)估了這種經(jīng)濟(jì)影響，確定了影響長期運(yùn)行的技術(shù)、管理和外部成本方面的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。

啟動(dòng)核電計(jì)劃

11. 為加強(qiáng)對(duì)“新啟動(dòng)核電國家”即目前正在考慮或規(guī)劃核電計(jì)劃的約 30 個(gè)成員國的支持，回顧并出版了從“綜合核基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)評(píng)審”頭六年工作組訪問中汲取的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。原子能機(jī)構(gòu)還更新了幾個(gè)國家的“國家核基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)概況”和“綜合工作計(jì)劃”，這些資料隨后被用于規(guī)劃原子能機(jī)構(gòu)的 2016－2017 年的活動(dòng)。2015 年，對(duì)肯尼亞、摩洛哥和尼日利亞開展了“綜合核基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)評(píng)審”工作組訪問。