在過去的12個月里，世界能源日周邊的能源市場出現(xiàn)了巨大的qjhravab，然而，改變?nèi)蚰茉大w系的挑戰(zhàn)仍然緊迫而艱巨。全球金融危機和隨之而來的經(jīng)濟衰退對未來幾年的能源市場前景產(chǎn)生了巨大影響。隨著經(jīng)濟吸引力的增強，世界能源需求已經(jīng)大幅下降；其重新啟動的速度在很大程度上取決于全球經(jīng)濟復蘇的速度。各國已對經(jīng)濟多邊貿(mào)易的威脅作出反應，將其視為金融危機的一個縮影，有針對性和協(xié)調(diào)一致的財政和貨幣刺激措施，這是一個未經(jīng)授權(quán)的規(guī)模。在許多情況下，stimulis packiges已經(jīng)采取了一些措施來促進dean energy的發(fā)展，目的是增加一個更大的、同樣真實的、滯后的期限威脅——災難性的dimate變化。我們?nèi)绾螒獙@一挑戰(zhàn)，將對能源市場產(chǎn)生深遠影響。作為溫室氣體排放的主要來源，能源是問題的核心，因此解決問題的關(guān)鍵是能源。表演的時間到了：1《聯(lián)合國氣候變化框架公約》締約方會議（2009年12月）提出了一個談判《京都議定書》后續(xù)條約的決定性機會，該條約使世界走上了一條嘗試性的可持續(xù)能源道路?！妒澜缒茉凑雇?009》（WEO-2009）（對這一挑戰(zhàn)進行了配對，并表明需要wtat來克服這一挑戰(zhàn)。能源挑戰(zhàn)的規(guī)模和廣度是巨大的，遠遠超過許多人的認識。但它可以而且必須得到滿足。經(jīng)濟衰退通過抑制綠色氣體排放量的增長，使能源部門轉(zhuǎn)型的任務(wù)變得更加容易，因為它為我們提供了一個相對狹窄的機會之窗，讓我們可以在低碳技術(shù)上對cmcertrate investmert采取行動。與能源相關(guān)的caftondoxkfe（2009年的碳排放量將低于經(jīng)濟衰退時的水平）。但是，如果Ccperhagen沒有達成一項強有力的協(xié)議，而且排放量恢復了它們的tpward路徑，那么這種節(jié)約w？U將毫無意義。家庭和企業(yè)主要負責進行所需的投資，但政府掌握著改變能源投資組合的關(guān)鍵。政策和法規(guī)框架是在國家和項目層面制定的，它決定了投資和消費是否轉(zhuǎn)向低碳選擇。因此，這一前景展示了兩個ScVaCox的結(jié)果：一個參考場景，WTICH提供了一個基線圖，說明如果政府不改變其現(xiàn)有的政策和措施，全球能源MARICET將如何發(fā)展；以及450種情形，wtich描述了在wfich中的一個問題，即采取集體政策行動，使大氣中格氏氣體的長期濃度達到每小時450個單位（ppm CO），這一目標正在得到世界的廣泛支持。

The past 12 months have seen enormous qjhravab in energy markets around the wodd, yet the challenges of transforming the global energy system remain urgent and daunting. The global financial crisis and ensuing recession have had a dramatic inpact m the outlook for energy maitets, partkdarty in the next few years. Wortd energy demand in a製勇ate has already plunged with the economic attraction; how quickly it rebouuis depends largely on how quickly the global econooy recwers. Countries have responded to the threat of economic mdt<lown as a resit of the financial crisis with pronpt and co-ordiiated fiscal and monetary stimuli cn an uxxecedented scale. In many cases, stimulis packiges have hduded measures to promote dean energy with the aim of tadding an even bigger, and just as real, lag-term threat - that of disastrous dimate change. How we rise to that challenge will have far-reaching consequences for energy markets. As the leading source of greenhousegas emissions, energy is at the heart of the problem and so nu6t be rteyal to the solution. The time to act has arrived: the 1 ?" Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Coiwenticn cn Qimate Change (UNFCCQ in Copentngen (December 2009) presents a decisive cpportmity to negotiate a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol - one that puts the wortd onto a trdy sustainable energy path. The WorldEner^ Outlook 2009 (WEO-2009) (paitifies the challenge and shows wtat is required to overcome it. The scale and breadth of the energy challenge is enormous - far greater than many people realise. But it can and must be met. The recession, by curbing the growth in greenhxse-gas emissions, has made the task of transforming the energy sector easier by giving us an inprecedented, yet relatively narrow, window of opportunity to take action to cmcertrate investmert on low-cartx)n technology. Energy-related caftondoxkfe (COJ enissions in 2009 wil be wdl bdow what they would have been had the recession not occirred. But this saving wU count for nothing if a robust deal is not reached in Ccperhagen - and emissions resume their tpward path. Households and businesses are largely responsble for making the required investments, but governments hold the key to changing the mix of energy investment. The policy and regdatory frameworis established at nattonal and itemational levels Mil detemine whether investment and consumption dedsims are steered towards low-carbon options. Accordingly, this Outlook presents the results of two scenarks: a Reference Scenario, wtich provides a baseline picture of how global energy maricets would evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies and measures; and a 450 Scenario, wtich depicts a wortd in wfich collective policy action is taken to lint the leng-term concentratim of greerhotse gases in the atmospliere to 450 parts per rrtllionof COfeqiivalert (ppm CO,qh an objective that is gaining widespread suppcrt aromd the wortd.