1. 50 years, the international atomic energy agency (iaea), has been committed to achieve the ideal of "atoms for peace", in promoting the peaceful use of nuclear technology global cooperation, enhance global nuclear safety and nuclear security and through verification activities about will nuclear facilities and material only for peaceful purposes of international commitments are the assurance of compliance with always plays a coordinating center role.This chapter provides an overview of nuclear-related developments worldwide in 2010 and how they affect the work of the iaea.2. Continued assessment of the fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant accident caused by the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on March 11, 2011.Since the present report focuses on developments in 2010, the incident and its implications are not addressed here and will be addressed in future iaea reports.  Nuclear technology Nuclear power, nuclear fuel cycle and sustainable developmentCurrent situation and trend of nuclear power3. The need to harness sustained economic development to alleviate poverty and hunger clearly requires increased energy and electricity supplies.Nuclear power is an important contributor to global electricity generation. As a major source of energy supply and a way to mitigate climate change, nuclear power has been undergoing a steady reevaluation process.More than 60 countries have expressed interest in exploring nuclear power, and many of them could have their first reactors operational by 2030, according to iaea projections.Construction began on 15 new nuclear-powered reactors, the most since 1985.Five new reactors were added to the grid and one retired, resulting in a net increase in global nuclear capacity to 375 gigawatts.By the end of 2010, there were 441 reactors in operation and 66 under construction.1The expected growth of nuclear power5. The current expansion and near-term and long-term growth prospects remain asia-centric.Asia is home to 12 of the 15 reactors under construction and two-thirds of those under construction by the end of the year.Four of the five new reactors are in Asia.In 2010, expectations for future growth remain high.The agency raised its low forecast for global nuclear capacity in 2030 by 7 per cent from its 2009 forecast, while the high forecast was slightly revised down.This upward revision of the low forecast reflects the progress made by the government, power companies and suppliers in implementing the announced plans.The relative stability of the high-value forecasts means that, globally, the strong appetite for the possibility of more ambitious nuclear expansion remained largely unchanged in 2010.7. In 2010, iaea extended its projections to 2050 for the first time.In terms of low value forecasts, growth will be inThe post-2030 slowdown.In terms of high-value projections, the world's nuclear capacity will increase fourfold by 2050.8. Atomic energy agency (iaea), also attended by the organisation for economic co-operation and the international energy agency and the oecd nuclear energy agency published the 2010 edition of the power production forecasting cost of work, which shows that calculated by the low interest rates, capital intensive low-carbon technologies such as nuclear power to can compete with coal-fired power plants and burning natural gas combined cycle plant base load power supply for the cost.But at high interest rates, fossil-fuel power is cheaper in many places than nuclear power.Provide support for in-transit nuclear power plants9. There is now a more global and competitive energy market with more stringent regulatory, stakeholder and environmental requirements than when most existing power plants were built.At the end of 2010, 358 of the 441 nuclear-powered transporters had been operating for more than 20 years.Many member states therefore continue to give high priority to the operation of their reactors beyond the 30-40 years originally envisaged.10. During the iaea technical cooperation cycle 2009-2011, 15 member states have been participating in technical cooperation projects to strengthen their planning and management capabilities to promote long-term operations and improve performance.That is double the seven member states that participated in the 2007-2008 cycle.Expansion of nuclear power programs11. The majority of the increase in installed nuclear power capacity will occur in the 29 countries that already have nuclear power projects in operation.After slowing construction in the 1990s, these countries have recently shown greater interest in building new power plants.Currently, 24 countries are planning to expand their existing nuclear programs, and by the end of 2010, countries with reactors in operation were building 65 reactors.At the same time, the agency has received an increasing number of applications for assistance for future expansion of nuclear power projects.Iaea assistance continues to contribute to the development of the necessary nuclear power infrastructure.Energy assessment service12. Iaea supports national energy assessments for all interested member states, not just those interested in nuclear power.The agency sometimes assesses member states directly.In other cases, iaea has helped to build the capacity of member states to carry out self-assessment through the transfer of assessment tools to member states and the training of their experts.In 2010, the demand for iaea assistance in promoting energy system analysis and planning and in promoting national and regional capacity-building for future energy strategies and the role of nuclear power continued to increase.More than 120 member states are currently using analytical tools developed for this purpose by the iaea.During 2010, more than 650 energy analysts from 68 countries were trained to use these tools.After a successful initial experience with e-training, about 20% of the training took the form of distance learning classes.

1. 五十多年來，國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)一直致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)“原子用于和平”的理想，在促進(jìn)全球和平利用核技術(shù)合作、提高全球核安全和核安保以及通過核查活動(dòng)提供關(guān)于僅將核設(shè)施和核材料用于和平目的的國(guó)際承諾正在得到遵守的保證方面始終發(fā)揮著協(xié)調(diào)中心的作用。本章概述 2010 年世界范圍內(nèi)與核有關(guān)的發(fā)展以及這些發(fā)展如何影響原子能機(jī)構(gòu)工作的情況。

2. 對(duì) 2011 年 3 月 11 日襲擊日本的地震和海嘯這種異常自然災(zāi)害引起的福島第一核電站事故繼續(xù)進(jìn)行評(píng)定。由于本報(bào)告?zhèn)戎赜?nbsp;2010 年的發(fā)展情況，因此，對(duì)該事故及其影響在此并不進(jìn)行論述，而將在原子能機(jī)構(gòu)今后的報(bào)告中加以處理。

核 技 術(shù)

核電、核燃料循環(huán)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展

核電的現(xiàn)狀和趨勢(shì)

3. 需要利用經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展來減輕貧困和饑餓明顯要求增加能源和電力的供應(yīng)。核電是全球電力的一個(gè)重要促進(jìn)因素，作為一種主要能源供應(yīng)來源和一種緩解氣候變化的途徑，核電一直在經(jīng)歷一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的再評(píng)價(jià)過程。60 多個(gè)國(guó)家已表示有興趣探索核電，而且按照原子能機(jī)構(gòu)的預(yù)測(cè)，其中許多國(guó)家有可能在 2030 年前將其首座反應(yīng)堆投入運(yùn)行。

4. 有 15 座新核動(dòng)力堆開工建設(shè)，這是 1985 年以來新開工建設(shè)數(shù)量最多的一次。五座新反應(yīng)堆并入電網(wǎng)，一座反應(yīng)堆退休，其結(jié)果是全球核發(fā)電容量出現(xiàn)凈增加，達(dá)到375 吉瓦（電）。到 2010 年底，正在運(yùn)行的反應(yīng)堆有 441 座，在建反應(yīng)堆為 66 座。¹

核電的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)

5. 當(dāng)前的擴(kuò)大以及近期和遠(yuǎn)期的增長(zhǎng)前景仍以亞洲為中心。在開工建造的 15 座反應(yīng)堆中有 12 座在亞洲，年底在建的反應(yīng)堆中也有三分之二在亞洲。五座并網(wǎng)的新反應(yīng)堆中有四座在亞洲。

6. 2010 年，對(duì)未來增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期依然很高。相比 2009 年的預(yù)測(cè)，原子能機(jī)構(gòu)將 2030 年全球核電裝機(jī)容量的低值預(yù)測(cè)提高了 7%，而高值預(yù)測(cè)則略微下調(diào)。對(duì)低值預(yù)測(cè)的這種上調(diào)修改反映了政府、電力公司和供應(yīng)商在執(zhí)行已宣布的計(jì)劃方面取得的進(jìn)展。高值預(yù)測(cè)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定意味著從全球來看，對(duì)更加雄心勃勃的核擴(kuò)展可能性的強(qiáng)烈愿望在2010 年基本未變。

7. 2010 年，原子能機(jī)構(gòu)首次將其預(yù)測(cè)延伸至 2050 年。就低值預(yù)測(cè)而言，增長(zhǎng)將在

2030 年后放緩。就高值預(yù)測(cè)而言，2050 年的全球核電裝機(jī)容量將比目前提高四倍。

8. 原子能機(jī)構(gòu)還參加了由經(jīng)合組織國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)和經(jīng)合組織核能機(jī)構(gòu)出版的 2010 年版《電力生產(chǎn)預(yù)測(cè)成本》的編制工作，其中顯示，按照低利率計(jì)算，資本密集的低碳技術(shù)如核能能夠以可與燃煤電廠和燃天然氣聯(lián)合循環(huán)廠競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的成本提供基荷電力。但按照高利率計(jì)算，化石燃料的發(fā)電成本在許多地方低于核電。

對(duì)在運(yùn)核電廠提供支持

9. 與現(xiàn)有大多數(shù)電廠在建造的時(shí)候相比，目前有一個(gè)更具全球性和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性的能源市場(chǎng)，在監(jiān)管、利益相關(guān)者和環(huán)境方面的要求也更加嚴(yán)格。在 2010 年底 441 座在運(yùn)核動(dòng)力堆中，有 358 座已經(jīng)運(yùn)行了 20 多年。因此，許多成員國(guó)繼續(xù)高度優(yōu)先重視其反應(yīng)堆在超過最初設(shè)想的 30－40 年后的運(yùn)行問題。

10. 在原子能機(jī)構(gòu) 2009－2011 年技術(shù)合作周期內(nèi)，有 15 個(gè)成員國(guó)一直在參加加強(qiáng)其規(guī)劃和管理能力以促進(jìn)長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)行和提高實(shí)績(jī)的技術(shù)合作項(xiàng)目。這比 2007－2008 年周期有七個(gè)成員國(guó)參與翻了一倍。

核電計(jì)劃的擴(kuò)大

11. 核電裝機(jī)容量的大部分增長(zhǎng)將出現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)擁有運(yùn)行中的核電計(jì)劃的 29 個(gè)國(guó)家。在20 世紀(jì) 90 年代減緩新建之后，這些國(guó)家最近對(duì)建造新電廠表現(xiàn)出更加濃厚的興趣。目前有 24 個(gè)國(guó)家正在計(jì)劃擴(kuò)大其現(xiàn)有核計(jì)劃，到 2010 年底，有在運(yùn)反應(yīng)堆的國(guó)家正在建造 65 座反應(yīng)堆。與此同時(shí)，原子能機(jī)構(gòu)收到了越來越多關(guān)于對(duì)未來擴(kuò)大核電計(jì)劃提供援助的申請(qǐng)。原子能機(jī)構(gòu)的援助繼續(xù)幫助發(fā)展必要的核電基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)。

能源評(píng)定服務(wù)

12. 原子能機(jī)構(gòu)支持對(duì)所有感興趣的成員國(guó)而不僅僅是對(duì)那些對(duì)核電感興趣的成員國(guó)開展國(guó)家能源評(píng)定。原子能機(jī)構(gòu)有時(shí)直接對(duì)成員國(guó)進(jìn)行評(píng)定。在其它情況下，原子能機(jī)構(gòu)則通過向成員國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)讓評(píng)定工具和培訓(xùn)成員國(guó)專家?guī)椭⒊蓡T國(guó)開展自我評(píng)定的能力。2010 年，在促進(jìn)能源系統(tǒng)分析和規(guī)劃以及促進(jìn)對(duì)未來能源戰(zhàn)略和核電的作用開展國(guó)家和地區(qū)性研究的能力建設(shè)方面請(qǐng)求原子能機(jī)構(gòu)提供援助的需求繼續(xù)增加。120 多個(gè)成員國(guó)目前正在使用原子能機(jī)構(gòu)為此開發(fā)的分析工具。2010 年期間，對(duì)來自 68 個(gè)國(guó)家的 650 多名能源分析人員進(jìn)行了使用這些工具的培訓(xùn)。在對(duì)電子培訓(xùn)進(jìn)行成功的初步體驗(yàn)之后，約 20%的培訓(xùn)采取了遠(yuǎn)程學(xué)習(xí)班的方式。