<p>這是英國石油公司第二年向公眾公布全球能源展望。我很高興看到這一決定得到了我們對(duì)去年版本的回復(fù)的認(rèn)可，該版本從英國石油公司網(wǎng)站上下載了超過36000次。我對(duì)這一答復(fù)感到特別高興，因?yàn)槲覉?jiān)信，分享能源展望的數(shù)據(jù)和分析——以及我們對(duì)世界能源的年度統(tǒng)計(jì)審查——是我們的責(zé)任的一部分，為全世界公司、政府和餐桌上有關(guān)能源的討論提供信息。本能源展望包含我們對(duì)未來能源趨勢和關(guān)鍵不確定性的預(yù)測，基于我們對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策和技術(shù)發(fā)展的看法。這是我們對(duì)2030年世界能源供需最有可能出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果的看法；不一定是我們英國石油公司希望看到的能源世界。今年，我們將更詳細(xì)地探討全球能源故事的幾個(gè)重要方面：中國和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和能源需求的路徑；影響中東能源出口前景的因素；以及公路運(yùn)輸中能源消費(fèi)的“驅(qū)動(dòng)力”。一如既往，構(gòu)成這一前景的數(shù)字指向長期趨勢，突出系統(tǒng)中潛在的決策點(diǎn)或“故障線”；簡而言之，他們的工作是傳達(dá)我們?cè)谏a(chǎn)和消費(fèi)能源方面都面臨的潛在挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇。</p><p>我們的工作是從數(shù)字中解開這個(gè)故事。例如，這一前景突出表明，即使可再生能源繼續(xù)快速增長，礦物燃料仍將在世界能源結(jié)構(gòu)中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。雖然這對(duì)碳排放的可能途徑有著不可回避的影響，但展望也強(qiáng)調(diào)了通過改用天然氣等碳密集度較低的燃料來提高能源效率和“減輕碳負(fù)荷”的機(jī)會(huì)。這一前景也挑戰(zhàn)了一些長期持有的信念。例如，美國供需前景的重大變化突顯出進(jìn)口依存度（當(dāng)今最大的能源進(jìn)口國）將大幅下降的可能性。也許對(duì)我來說最重要的是，前景如何提醒我們，我們都是有聯(lián)系的。全球能源貿(mào)易繼續(xù)快速增長，將世界經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系在一起，推動(dòng)世界各國能源使用與經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系顯著趨同。這些都是更好的改變。它們是由市場驅(qū)動(dòng)的，雖然它們需要精心設(shè)計(jì)的政策的支持，但它們是我對(duì)世界能夠應(yīng)對(duì)提供負(fù)擔(dān)得起、安全、可持續(xù)和當(dāng)然安全的能源這一挑戰(zhàn)感到樂觀的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵原因。我們希望你能發(fā)現(xiàn)2012年版的英國石油2030年能源展望是對(duì)全球能源討論的有益補(bǔ)充</p>

This is the second year in which BP has made our outlook for global energy available to the public. I am glad to see this decision was endorsed by the response we received to last year’s edition, which was downloaded over 36,000 times from BP’s website. I was particularly pleased at this response because I strongly believe that sharing the data and analysis of the Energy Outlook–and of our annual Statistical Review of World Energy –is part of our responsibility to inform the discussions on energy that are occurring in companies, governments, and over dinner tables worldwide. This Energy Outlook contains our projections of future energy trends and key uncertainties, based on our views of the evolution of the world economy, of policy, and technology. This is our view of the most likely outcome for world energy supply and demand to 2030; it is not necessarily the energy world we at BP wish to see. This year we examine in more detail several important facets of the global energy story: the pathways for economic development and energy demand in China and India; the factors affecting the energy export prospects of the Middle East; and the “drivers” of energy consumption in road transportation. As always, the numbers that make up this outlook point to long term trends and highlight potential decision points or “fault lines” in the system; in short, their job is to convey the underlying challenges and opportunities we all face in producing and consuming energy.

Our job is to unlock this story from the numbers. For example, this outlook highlights the critical role that fossil fuels will continue to play in the world’s energy mix, even as renewable energy sources continue their rapid growth. While this has inescapable implications for the likely path of carbon emissions, the outlook also highlights the opportunities for improving energy efficiency and “l(fā)ightening the carbon load” by switching to less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas. The outlook also challenges some long-held beliefs. Significant changes in US supply and demand prospects, for example, highlight the likelihood that import dependence (in what is today’s largest energy importer) will decline substantially. Perhaps most important to me is how the outlook reminds us that we are all connected. Global energy trade continues to grow rapidly, linking the world’s economies and driving a remarkable convergence of the relationship between energy use and economic activity in countries around the world. These are changes for the better. They are market driven, and while they need the support of well-designed policies, they represent a key reason why I feel optimistic about the world’s ability to meet the challenge of providing energy that is affordable, secure, sustainable and of course safe. We hope you find the 2012 edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2030a useful addition to the global energy discussion.