今年4月，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子連續(xù)第二個(gè)月下跌，下跌5.39美元，跌幅超過(guò)5%，至101.05美元/桶。今年以來(lái)，參考價(jià)格籃子較去年同期下跌10.22美元或8.7%。4月份，原油期貨再次遭受重創(chuàng)，截至2012年7月，布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格下跌5.6%，月均價(jià)約為103美元/桶。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）的WTI指數(shù)小幅下跌1%，至92美元/桶。脆弱的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)加上需求增長(zhǎng)放緩、原油產(chǎn)量上升和高庫(kù)存的前景，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)下跌。由于動(dòng)量交易導(dǎo)致黃金和白銀等大宗商品拋售，導(dǎo)致黃金和白銀等大宗商品暴跌創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，原油也因交叉商品和股市羊群行為而下跌。美國(guó)商品期貨交易委員會(huì)（CFTC）和歐洲商品交易所（CE）對(duì)交易員報(bào)告的最新承諾，證實(shí)了4月份投資者對(duì)石油的看跌情緒。不過(guò)，自本月初以來(lái)，該籃子指數(shù)有所改善，于5月9日升至101.67美元/桶。繼前一年增長(zhǎng)3.0%后，預(yù)計(jì)2013年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為3.2%，與上次報(bào)告沒(méi)有變化。美國(guó)住房和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)顯示復(fù)蘇，但考慮到持續(xù)存在的財(cái)政不確定性，美國(guó)2013年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)仍保持在1.8%不變。日本的預(yù)測(cè)已經(jīng)從0.8%修正為1.1%，這是由于近期貨幣刺激的支持。歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，預(yù)計(jì)將收縮0.5%。出口放緩影響了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，增長(zhǎng)率從8.1%修正為8.0%，而印度的預(yù)測(cè)不變，為6.0%。今年年初以來(lái)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了脆弱的復(fù)蘇，但勢(shì)頭再次開(kāi)始放緩，增長(zhǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向下行傾斜。2013年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)與上一份報(bào)告保持不變，為80萬(wàn)桶/日，與2012年的預(yù)測(cè)大體一致。不過(guò)，根據(jù)實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)，今年第一季度的業(yè)績(jī)已經(jīng)有所下降。增長(zhǎng)的很大一部分來(lái)自中國(guó)，每天增長(zhǎng)40萬(wàn)桶。其他非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家預(yù)計(jì)將增加約80萬(wàn)桶/日，中東地區(qū)約為30萬(wàn)桶/日，其次是其他亞洲和拉丁美洲，分別增長(zhǎng)約20萬(wàn)桶/日。相比之下，經(jīng)合組織的需求預(yù)計(jì)將萎縮約40萬(wàn)桶/日，略低于2012年。非歐佩克的供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)2013年將增長(zhǎng)100萬(wàn)桶/日，2012年將增長(zhǎng)50萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告基本持平。2013年，經(jīng)合組織（OECD）美洲仍然是增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)力，而OECD歐洲的降幅最大。預(yù)計(jì)2013年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將增加20萬(wàn)桶/日。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士估計(jì)，4月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為3046萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月增加0.28萬(wàn)桶/日。4月份，由于輕質(zhì)和中間餾分油裂縫的急劇下降，成品油市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)失地，這些裂縫受到供應(yīng)增加和全球需求減弱的壓力。在亞洲，煉油廠利潤(rùn)率下降的主要原因是桶頂。由于WTI價(jià)格的回升，美國(guó)的利潤(rùn)率經(jīng)歷了強(qiáng)勁的調(diào)整。在歐洲，布倫特原油價(jià)格的下跌使得歐洲利潤(rùn)率得以回升，盡管由于國(guó)內(nèi)需求低迷，市場(chǎng)基本面疲弱。在油輪市場(chǎng)，由于噸位需求較低，臟油和清潔油市場(chǎng)普遍看跌。平均來(lái)說(shuō)，臟貨現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)比上個(gè)月下降了4%。運(yùn)費(fèi)下降的主要原因是煉油廠維修需求下降和冬季結(jié)束。與上月相比，歐佩克和中東航線以及所有報(bào)告港口的抵達(dá)量均有所下降。經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存在3月份略有下降，與5年平均水平保持一致。原油比季節(jié)平均水平高出1900萬(wàn)桶，而產(chǎn)品則顯示出約相同數(shù)量的赤字。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率而言，經(jīng)合組織（OECD）股價(jià)為59.1天，比五年平均水平高出約1.3天。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，4月份美國(guó)商業(yè)股上漲2000萬(wàn)桶。這表明，與季節(jié)平均水平相比，歐佩克原油過(guò)剩4200萬(wàn)桶，其中大部分來(lái)自原油。2012年歐佩克原油需求量估計(jì)為3020萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告上調(diào)了10萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一年相比基本持平。2013年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求平均為2980萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告上調(diào)了10萬(wàn)桶/日，較去年下降了40萬(wàn)桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket dropped for the second-consecutive month in April, declining by$5.39 or more than 5% to stand at $101.05/b. Year-to-date, the Basket declined by $10.22 or 8.7%from the same period last year. Crude oil futures took a substantial hit again in April, with Brentfalling 5.6% to July 2012 levels with a monthly average of around $103/b. Nymex WTI edged 1%lower to average $92/b. A vulnerable global economy combined with the prospect of moderatedemand growth, rising crude production, and high stocks sent prices tumbling. Crude oil also lostground amid cross-commodity and equity market herd behaviour as momentum trading led to a selloffthat sent commodities, such as gold and silver, plunging by record levels. The latest CFTC andICE commitment of traders’ reports confirmed the bearish investor sentiment towards oil in April.However, the Basket has shown some improvement since the start of the month to stand at$101.67/b on 9 May.World economic growth is forecast at 3.2% in 2013, following growth of 3.0% in the previous year,unchanged from the last report. The US housing and labour markets continue to show a recovery,but given persistent fiscal uncertainties, the US growth forecast for 2013 remains unchanged at1.8%. Japan’s forecast has been revised to 1.1% from 0.8%, on support from recent monetarystimulus. The Euro-zone’s forecast remains unchanged, with an expected contraction of 0.5%.Slowing exports have impacted China’s economy and growth has been revised to 8.0% from 8.1%,while India’s forecast is unchanged at 6.0%. A fragile recovery in the global economy has beenvisible since the beginning of the year, but momentum has started slowing again and growth risksare skewed to the downside.World oil demand growth in 2013 remains unchanged from the previous report at 0.8 mb/d, broadlyin line with the estimate for 2012. However, the performance of the first quarter of this year has beenrevised down based on actual data. A large portion of the growth is seen coming from China, with a0.4 mb/d increase. The other non-OECD countries are expected to add some 0.8 mb/d, with theMiddle East region accounting for around 0.3 mb/d, followed by Other Asia and Latin America withgrowth of about 0.2 mb/d each. In contrast, OECD demand is expected to see a contraction ofaround 0.4 mb/d, which is slightly less than in 2012.Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d in 2013, following an increase of 0.5 mb/d in2012, broadly unchanged from the previous report. OECD Americas remain the driver of growth in2013, while OECD Europe is seen experiencing the largest decline. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/d in 2013. In April, total OPEC crude oilproduction, according to secondary sources, was estimated to average 30.46 mb/d, an increase of0.28 mb/d over the previous month.Product markets continued losing ground in April due to sharp declines in light and middle distillatecracks, which have been pressured by rising supplies along with weaker demand worldwide. In Asia,refinery margins fell mostly for the top of the barrel. US margins experienced a strong correction dueto the recovery in WTI prices. In Europe, the drop in the Brent price allowed European margins torecover, despite weak market fundamentals due to lacklustre domestic demand. In the tanker market, a general bearish sentiment could be seen in both dirty and clean markets inApril, due to low tonnage demand. On average, dirty spot freight rates dropped by 4% from theprevious month. The drop in freight rates was mainly driven by lower demand on refinerymaintenance and the end of the winter season. OPEC and Middle East sailings declined fromprevious month, along with arrivals in all reported ports.OECD commercial oil stocks fell marginally in March, remaining in line with the five-year average.Crude stood 19.0 mb over the seasonal average, while products indicated a deficit of about thesame amount. In terms of forward cover, OECD stocks stood at 59.1 days, some 1.3 days above thefive-year average. Preliminary data shows US commercial stocks rose by 20.0 mb in April. Thisindicates a surplus of 42.0 mb compared to the seasonal average, with the bulk coming from crude.Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 is estimated at 30.2 mb/d, following an upward revision of0.1 mb/d from the previous report and broadly unchanged compared to the previous year. In 2013,demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 29.8 mb/d, representing an upward revision of0.1 mb/d from the previous report and a 0.4 mb/d decline from last year.