石油市場亮點

今年6月，歐佩克一籃子參考原油價格平均下跌1.53美元，至72.95美元/桶。整個月，由于經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)喜憂參半，對經(jīng)濟復蘇的力度描繪了一幅不確定的圖景，市場仍不穩(wěn)定。歐洲的主權(quán)債務擔憂以及中國的財政和貨幣政策收緊，抵消了美國汽油需求略有改善，有時失業(yè)申請人數(shù)下降的影響。股票和匯率波動也影響了價格。7月初，由于市場情緒因經(jīng)濟擔憂而暫時轉(zhuǎn)為看跌，該籃子價格跌至70美元/桶以下。然而，到第二周，價格在7月14日回升至73.93美元/桶。

2010年世界經(jīng)濟增長勢頭強勁，預計增長3.8%。迄今為止，經(jīng)濟復蘇得到了前所未有的財政和貨幣刺激的支持。預計在未來幾個月，這兩項指標都將逐漸減少，私人消費和投資將不得不得到補償。再加上大多數(shù)發(fā)達國家宣布的財政緊縮措施以及中國的貨幣和財政緊縮，明年的經(jīng)濟增長應該會略有放緩。因此，預計2011年世界經(jīng)濟將增長3.7%。經(jīng)濟增長率為2.0%，美國為2.5%，日本為1.4%，歐元區(qū)為0.9%。預計對全球增長的主要貢獻將再次來自非OEC國家，主要是中國，占8.8%，印度占7.7%。

2010年世界石油需求增長率不變，為90萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)預計今年不會出現(xiàn)任何增長，主要是由于歐洲需求下降。2011年，世界石油需求預計將增長100萬桶/日，反映出對全球經(jīng)濟復蘇步伐的持續(xù)謹慎。增長將發(fā)生在非經(jīng)合組織國家，主要是中國、印度、中東和拉丁美洲。由于經(jīng)濟持續(xù)復蘇，對工業(yè)燃料的需求將強勁，預計運輸燃料的需求也將健康增長。美國的汽油需求預計將恢復正常增長，盡管增長速度存在令人擔憂的不確定性。

2010年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應預計將增加70萬桶/日，較上一次評估值上升了不到10萬桶/日，主要原因是上半年的生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)更強勁。2011，非歐佩克石油供應預計將增長0.3 Mb/d。預計巴西、加拿大、阿塞拜疆、哥倫比亞和哈薩克斯坦是主要的貢獻者，而EMEXICO、英國和挪威預計將經(jīng)歷最大跌幅。深海供應的不確定性構(gòu)成風險。預計2011年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將達到540萬桶/日，比今年大幅增長約50萬桶/日。6月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為2920萬桶，與上月相比相對穩(wěn)定。

對中間餾分油的需求增加、經(jīng)濟增長好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象以及駕駛季節(jié)對汽油需求的樂觀情緒，共同支撐了6月初的產(chǎn)品市場情緒和價格。然而，隨著近幾周煉油廠維修工作的完成、產(chǎn)品供應的增加以及對世界經(jīng)濟增長速度的擔憂加劇，物理和期貨產(chǎn)品市場已經(jīng)失去了一些力量。當前的情緒可能會隨著經(jīng)濟復蘇的步伐和颶風季節(jié)可能出現(xiàn)的業(yè)務中斷而改變。這可能為未來幾個月的原油市場提供一些支撐。

由于超大型油輪運價上漲，5月份油輪市場漲跌互現(xiàn)，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的現(xiàn)貨運價則有所下降。中國的活動支持了超大型油輪運價的增長，而疲軟的活動以及超噸位的供應影響了蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪市場。產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)貨率較上月下降5.1%，反映出噸位增加和部分產(chǎn)品的套利行為。歐佩克的升空幅度略高，而抵達量則下降了2.7%。

美國商業(yè)股延續(xù)上漲趨勢，6月份在產(chǎn)品建設推動下上漲1020萬股。由于這一增長，庫存比五年平均水平高出8700萬桶。歐洲6月份石油庫存總量（歐盟加挪威）下降了480萬桶。抽簽的原因是產(chǎn)量和原油下降，仍比季節(jié)正常水平高出3600萬桶。在日本，商業(yè)石油股5月份上漲了900萬桶，將5年平均赤字縮小至2.6%。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至6月底，日本商業(yè)石油庫存總量下降了約400萬股。

據(jù)估計，2010年歐佩克原油需求為2870萬桶/日，比上一份報告低約10萬桶/日。與一年前相比，這意味著每天減少了0.3 mb。2011年，預計歐佩克原油需求量平均為2880萬桶/日，比上年增加20萬桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.53 to average $72.95/b in June. The marketremained volatile throughout the month as mixed economic data painted an uncertain picture aboutthe strength of the economic recovery. Sovereign debt concerns in Europe and fiscal and monetarytightening in China offset the slightly improving gasoline demand in the US and at times fallingjobless claims. Equities and exchange rate fluctuations also impacted prices. In early July, theBasket fell below $70/b as market sentiment turned temporarily bearish on economic concerns.However, by the second week, prices recovered to stand at $73.93/b on 14 July. 

The world economy has gained momentum in 2010 and is expected to grow by 3.8%. Therecovery has so far been supported by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. Both areexpected to gradually diminish over the coming months, and private consumption and investmentwill have to compensate. This, combined with announced fiscal austerity measures in most of thedeveloped countries and monetary and fiscal tightening in China, should lead to a slight moderationin growth next year. As a result, the world economy is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2011. TheOECD is seen growing by 2.0%, led by the US at 2.5%, while Japan is at 1.4% and the Euro-zone at0.9%. The main contribution to global growth is again projected to come from the non-OECDcountries, mainly China at 8.8% and India at 7.7%. 

World oil demand growth in 2010 is unchanged at 0.9 mb/d. The OECD region is not expectedto see any growth this year, mainly due to declining European demand. In 2011, world oildemand is projected to grow by 1.0 mb/d, reflecting continued caution about the pace of theglobal economic recovery. Growth will take place in the non-OECD, mainly China, India, theMiddle East and Latin America. The demand for industrial fuel will be strong as a result of thecontinuing economic recovery, with healthy growth also expected in demand for transportationfuels. US gasoline demand is expected to return to normal growth, although with considerableuncertainty about the pace of growth. 

Non-OPEC supply is now expected to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2010, representing an upwardrevision of less than 0.1 mb/d from the last assessment, primarily due to stronger production data inthe first half of the year. In 2011, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.3 mb/d. Brazil,Canada, Azerbaijan, Colombia, and Kazakhstan are forecast to be the main contributors, whileMexico, UK, and Norway are foreseen to experience the largest declines. Uncertainties regardingdeep offshore supply constitute a risk. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are projected to reach5.4 mb/d in 2011, indicating a significant increase of around 0.5 mb/d over this year. In June, OPECcrude output averaged 29.2 mb/d, relatively steady with respect to the previous month. 

Increasing demand for middle distillates, signs of improving economic growth and positive sentimentfor gasoline demand during the driving season combined to support product market sentiment andprices in early June. However, with the completion of refinery maintenance, increasing productsupplies and rising concerns about the pace of world economic growth in recent weeks, bothphysical and futures product markets have lost some of their strength. The prevailing sentimentmay change dependent on pace of economic recovery and potential operational disruptions over thehurricane season. This could provide some support for crude markets over the coming months. 

The tanker market was mixed in May as VLCC rates increased, while Suezmax and Aframax spotrates declined. Chinese activity supported the increase in VLCC rates while muted activity as well asexcess tonnage availability influenced the Suezmax and Aframax markets. Product spot rates fell5.1% over the previous month reflecting increased tonnage and the arbitrage in some products.OPEC liftings were marginally higher, while arrivals experienced a decline of 2.7%. 

US commercial stocks continued their upward trend, rising by 10.2 mb in June, driven by a build inproducts. As a result of this increase, stocks stand at 87 mb above the five-year average. Europeantotal oil inventories (EU plus Norway) declined 4.8 mb in June. The draw was due to declines inproducts and crude, which still remained 36.0 mb above the seasonal norm. In Japan, commercialoil stocks rose 9.0 mb in May, narrowing the deficit with five-year average to 2.6%. Preliminaryindications show Japanese total commercials oil stocks declined by around 4 mb at the end of June.

  The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 28.7 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d lower than theprevious report. This represents a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to a year ago. In 2011, demandfrom OPEC crude is expected to average 28.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year.