來自歐元區(qū)令人印象深刻的數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，第三季度是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁增長的時(shí)期，在這一擴(kuò)張中，三個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)首次在能源價(jià)格居高不下的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)了同時(shí)強(qiáng)勁增長。寬松的貨幣政策、低通脹率和世界貿(mào)易的健康增長促進(jìn)了制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出。高水平的家庭財(cái)富使消費(fèi)者能夠消化更高的能源價(jià)格，而能源效率的提高減緩了對工業(yè)成本的影響。在公布了良好的第三季度數(shù)據(jù)之后，日本2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測被修正為2.2%。預(yù)計(jì)2006年將繼續(xù)保持1.8%的穩(wěn)定增長。對歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測沒有變化，預(yù)計(jì)歐元區(qū)2005年和明年分別增長1.1%和1.5%。2005年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測增長率已提高到4.3%，預(yù)計(jì)明年將達(dá)到4.1%。盡管第三季度表現(xiàn)良好，但預(yù)計(jì)2006年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將小幅下降。能源價(jià)格上漲和補(bǔ)貼減少對亞洲發(fā)展中國家的影響尚不清楚。另一個(gè)不確定因素是，面對利率上升，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)是否會(huì)復(fù)蘇。美國消費(fèi)支出增長受挫將影響中國和其他亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的出口和投資。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的籃子在10月份表現(xiàn)出波動(dòng)性。東部地區(qū)對輕質(zhì)甜味原油的需求增加，對甜味/酸味價(jià)差造成壓力，中東地區(qū)原油的價(jià)差擴(kuò)大，而西部煉油廠停產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致的需求不確定性推低了價(jià)格。進(jìn)一步動(dòng)用戰(zhàn)略儲備的可能性揮之不去，只會(huì)加劇下行勢頭。在需求增加和非歐佩克供應(yīng)減少的前景下，油價(jià)改變了方向，盡管美國原油庫存增加證明，歐佩克供應(yīng)充足，使看跌趨勢得以延續(xù)。該籃子的月平均價(jià)格下跌5.6%或3.25美元，收于54.63美元/桶。進(jìn)入11月上半月，由于北半球反常的溫暖天氣，汽油需求放緩，取暖燃料需求下降，健康原油庫存增加，該籃子進(jìn)一步下跌。11月15日，該籃子價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)低于55美元/桶的水平，至50.01美元/桶。美國煉油業(yè)和天然氣產(chǎn)量的積極發(fā)展，加上阿泰洛普最大煉油廠罷工的解決，以及過去幾周亞洲需求放緩，引發(fā)了產(chǎn)品市場的看跌情緒。最近，溫和的冬季進(jìn)一步加劇了這種情況，特別是在美國東北部，這反過來導(dǎo)致全球產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和煉油廠利潤率較上個(gè)月大幅下降。盡管最近有所下降，但煉油廠利潤率仍保持健康，并可能為原油需求提供支持。由于美國市場繼續(xù)缺乏中間餾分油產(chǎn)品，寒流可能逆轉(zhuǎn)當(dāng)前的看跌情緒，為產(chǎn)品和原油價(jià)格提供支撐。歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨租船總量連續(xù)第二個(gè)月增加，10月份增加了135萬桶/日，平均為1582萬桶/日。中東以外的國家是增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)者，增加了126萬桶/日，這反映了非洲輕質(zhì)和低硫原油貿(mào)易的增長。來自歐佩克地區(qū)的航行量幾乎保持穩(wěn)定，而中東地區(qū)的航行量激增了70萬桶/日，達(dá)到193萬桶/日，比去年同期增加了200萬桶/日。美國和加勒比海地區(qū)的到達(dá)量躍升0.95百萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均1070百萬桶/日。油輪市場仍然看好，特別是蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪，根據(jù)航線的不同，運(yùn)費(fèi)增長了26%至80%，而產(chǎn)品的運(yùn)費(fèi)則繼續(xù)上升，東部和地中海分別上升180點(diǎn)和120點(diǎn)，根據(jù)航線的不同，產(chǎn)品價(jià)格比去年同期高出115至226點(diǎn)。根據(jù)今年前三個(gè)季度的最新數(shù)據(jù)和對剩余三個(gè)月的預(yù)測，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長120萬桶/日，即1.4%，至2005年全年平均8330萬桶/日。進(jìn)一步削弱了“需求破壞”的論調(diào)，這些更高的數(shù)字得到了發(fā)展中國家強(qiáng)有力的初步增長數(shù)據(jù)的支持，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)——特別是美國和經(jīng)合組織太平洋國家——的光明前景，以及中國表觀需求的反彈。2006年，世界石油平均需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長150萬桶/日，或1.8%，達(dá)到平均8480萬桶/日，較上個(gè)月的數(shù)字略有上升。2005年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)平均為5020萬桶/日，比上一年增加35萬桶/日，而上個(gè)月則下調(diào)了94000桶/日。包括歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油在內(nèi)，非歐佩克石油的平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5450萬桶/日，增加了50萬桶/日。按季度計(jì)算，非歐佩克石油的供應(yīng)量在第三和第四季度分別減少了195000桶/日和191000桶/日；在巴西、哈薩克斯坦、挪威下調(diào)之后，而蘇丹則被俄羅斯和阿塞拜疆的上調(diào)部分抵消。2006年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5160萬桶/日，比2005年增加140萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月的報(bào)告增加34000桶/日。包括歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油在內(nèi)，非歐佩克的供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)平均為5620萬桶/日，增加170萬桶/日。10月份，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量估計(jì)平均為3000萬桶/日。美國商業(yè)石油庫存（包括原油和石油產(chǎn)品總量，不包括戰(zhàn)略儲備）小幅上升，增加了70萬桶或約0.03萬桶/日2005年9月30日至10月28日期間為10 506萬桶。10月份，歐元兌16歐元（歐盟加挪威）的石油庫存總量連續(xù)第四個(gè)月保持上升趨勢，增加360萬歐元或0.12萬歐元/日，達(dá)到114770萬歐元，為六年來的最高水平。日本9月份的石油庫存總量變化不大，仍接近上月19100億桶的水平。2005年的供需平衡略有上調(diào)，以反映較低的供應(yīng)預(yù)期。據(jù)預(yù)測，2005年歐佩克原油的需求量為2880萬桶/日，比2004年增加了62萬桶/日，但比之前的預(yù)測高出11萬桶/日?？紤]到供需平衡以及由此產(chǎn)生的歐佩克所需原油產(chǎn)量水平和預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)能，目前估計(jì)第四季度所需原油量比以前增加27.6萬桶/日，高于歐佩克目前的3000萬桶/日原油產(chǎn)量，據(jù)估計(jì)，2005年第四季度，歐佩克的閑置產(chǎn)能平均約為8.1%，而去年同期為4.9%。2006年，對歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為2860萬桶/日，較上月的報(bào)告下降約4萬桶/日。季度分布顯示，目前歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)第一季度為2980萬桶/日，第二季度為2770萬桶/日，第三季度為2780萬桶/日，第四季度為2900萬桶/日。

Impressive data from the Euro-zone confirmed that the third quarter was a period of strong growth for the world economy.For the first time in this expansion, all three developed regions achieved simultaneous solid growth despite the high levels ofenergy prices. Accommodative monetary policies, low inflation rates and healthy growth in world trade boostedmanufacturing output. High levels of household wealth allowed consumers to absorb the higher energy prices whilstimproved levels of energy efficiency have moderated the impact on industrial costs. Following good third quarter data, the Japanese growth forecast for 2005 has been revised up to 2.2%. Further steady growthof 1.8% is expected in 2006. There has been no change in the forecast for the Euro-zone which is expected to grow by 1.1%in 2005 and by 1.5% next year. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 has been increased to 4.3% and is expected to be followed bygrowth of 4.1% next year. Despite the good performance of the third quarter, growth is expected to fall slightly in 2006. Theimpact of higher energy prices and reduced subsidies on developing Asia is not yet clear. A further uncertainty is theresilience of the US economy in the face of rising interest rates. A setback to the growth of consumer spending in the USwould impact exports and investment in China and other Asian economies. The OPEC Basket displayed volatile movement in October. Higher demand for light sweet crude in the east put pressure onthe sweet/sour spread, which widened for Mideast crude, while uncertainty about demand due to refinery outages in the westpushed prices lower. A lingering possibility of a further tapping of strategic reserves only added to the downwardmomentum. Prices changed direction on the prospect of higher demand and lower non-OPEC supply, although ample OPECsupply as evidenced by higher US crude oil stocks kept the bearish trend alive. The Basket’s monthly average dropped ahefty 5.6% or $3.25 to settle at $54.63/b. The Basket moved further downward into the first half of November on healthycrude oil stock-builds amid slower demand for gasoline and lower heating fuel requirements due to unseasonably warmweather in the Northern hemisphere. The Basket slipped well below the $55/b level to stand at $50.01/b on 15 November. Positive developments in the US refining industry and natural gas output, combined with the resolution of a strike atEurope’s biggest refinery and slowing Asian demand over the last couple of weeks, triggered bearish sentiment in theproduct markets. More recently this situation has been further exacerbated by the mild winter, particularly in the USNortheast, which in turn resulted in a significant drop in product prices and refinery margins across the globe from theprevious month. Despite the recent declines, refinery margins remain healthy and could lend support to crude demand. Asthe US market continues to be short of middle distillate products, a cold snap could reverse the current bearish sentiment,providing support for both product and crude prices. Total OPEC spot chartering continued to increase for the second consecutive month, gaining 1.35 mb/d in October, toaverage 15.82 mb/d. Countries outside the Middle East were the main contributors to the growth, adding 1.26 mb/d, areflection of the growing trade for light and sweet crudes from Africa. Sailings from the OPEC area remained almost stable,while Middle East sailings surged by 0.7 mb/d to 19.3 mb/d, an increase of 2 mb/d over a year earlier. Arrivals at the USAand Caribbean jumped by 0.95 mb/d to average 10.7 mb/d. The tanker market remained bullish especially in the Suezmaxand Aframax sectors, where freight rates increased by between 26% and 80%, depending on the route, while freight rates forproducts continued to move upward, showing gains of as much as 180 points in the east and 120 points in the Mediterranean.Depending on the route, rates for products were between 115 to 226 points higher than the year-earlier levels. According to the latest data available for the first three quarters of the year and projections for the remaining three months,world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d or 1.4% to average 83.3 mb/d for the whole of 2005. Further undercuttingthe arguments for “demand destruction”, these higher figures are supported by vigorous preliminary growth data fromdeveloping countries, a brighter outlook for the world economy — particularly for the USA and OECD Pacific countries —and a rebound in Chinese apparent demand. In 2006, average world oil demand is projected to grow by 1.5 mb/d or 1.8% toaverage 84.8 mb/d, which represents a slight upward revision from last month’s figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to average 50.2 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.35 mb/d over the previous year,following a downward revision of 94,000 b/d from last month. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, nonOPECsupply is expected to average 54.5 mb/d, an increase of 0.5 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply has beenrevised down in the third and fourth quarter by 195,000 b/d and 191,000 b/d respectively; following downward revisions inBrazil, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Sudan which have been partially offset by upward revisions in Russia and Azerbaijan. In2006, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.6 mb/d, an increase of 1.4 mb/d over 2005 and an upward revision of34,000 b/d from last month’s report. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, non-OPEC supply is expected toaverage 56.2 mb/d, an increase of 1.7 mb/d. October OPEC output is estimated to have averaged 30 mb/d. US commercial oil stocks, which includes total crude and petroleum products excluding strategic reserves, moved upslightly, adding 0.7 mb or about 0.03 mb/d to stand at 1,050.6 mb during the period 30 September-28 October 2005. Totaloil stocks in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) during October maintained the upward trend for the fourth consecutive month,rising by 3.6 mb or 0.12 mb/d to stand at 1147.7 mb, the highest level in six years. Total oil inventories in Japan showedlittle change in September, remaining close to the previous month’s level of 191 mb. The supply/demand balance for 2005 has been revised up slightly to reflect lower supply expectations. The demand forOPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is now forecast at 28.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.62 mb/d from 2004 but 110,000 b/d higher thanpreviously projected. The crude required for the fourth quarter is now estimated to be 276,000 b/d higher than before, andis higher than current OPEC crude production at 30.0 mb/d. In terms of OPEC capacity, taking into account thesupply/demand balance as well as the resulting required OPEC crude production levels and projected production capacity,OPEC’s spare capacity is now estimated to average around 8.1% in the fourth quarter of 2005, compared to 4.9% in thesame period last year. For 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, a downward revision ofaround 40,000 b/d versus last month’s report. The quarterly distribution shows that demand for OPEC crude is nowexpected to be 29.8 mb/d in the first quarter, 27.7 mb/d in the second, 27.8 mb/d in the third and 29.0 mb/d in the fourth.