8月份，歐佩克參考籃子平均為107.52美元/桶，比上月增加3.07美元。除厄瓜多爾的Oriente外，所有籃子組件的值都有所提高。價(jià)格普遍受到布倫特市場(chǎng)緊縮的支撐。該籃子今年迄今的價(jià)值為105.32美元/桶，較去年同期下降4.81美元或4.8%。8月份，由于季節(jié)性需求增加、部分供應(yīng)中斷和地緣政治擔(dān)憂，大西洋兩岸的國際原油期貨價(jià)格飆升。隨著冰布倫特原油期貨和期權(quán)的凈長(zhǎng)度達(dá)到歷史最高水平，基金經(jīng)理們利用高政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和供應(yīng)中斷的組合推動(dòng)原油價(jià)格上漲。紐約商品交易所WTI指數(shù)上漲1.84美元，至平均106.54美元/桶。ICEBrent指數(shù)上漲3.02美元，至平均110.45美元/桶。2013年和2014年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)分別保持在2.9%和3.5%不變。由于2013年第二季度的增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期，美國2013年的增長(zhǎng)率從1.6%上調(diào)至1.7%；2014年的預(yù)測(cè)仍為2.5%。在2013年第二季度恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)后，歐元區(qū)目前預(yù)計(jì)2013年將出現(xiàn)0.5%的低收縮；2014年的預(yù)測(cè)保持在0.6%。日本的預(yù)測(cè)從1.9%修正為1.7%，2014年的預(yù)測(cè)不變?yōu)?.4%。印度最近受到資本外流的影響，2013年的預(yù)測(cè)從5.6%修正為5.3%，2014年的增長(zhǎng)保持在6.0%。中國對(duì)2013年和2014年的預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，分別為7.6%和7.7%?？傮w而言，在新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體放緩的情況下，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體正在復(fù)蘇，盡管水平較低。2013年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)略微上調(diào)了25 tb/d，反映出今年上半年實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)高于預(yù)期，以及主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)的積極跡象，特別是在美國、英國和德國。2013年的預(yù)測(cè)目前為80萬桶/日。2014年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)100萬桶/日，與之前的預(yù)測(cè)一致，盡管為解釋最新信息而進(jìn)行了一些邊際地區(qū)修正。2013年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)110萬桶/日。美國、加拿大、南蘇丹和蘇丹、俄羅斯、中國和哥倫比亞的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)為增長(zhǎng)提供了支撐，而敘利亞、挪威、英國和澳大利亞的產(chǎn)出預(yù)計(jì)將下降。2014年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)120萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2013年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量平均為580萬桶/日，2014年為600萬桶/日，分別增長(zhǎng)20萬桶/日和10萬桶/日。據(jù)第二位消息人士透露，8月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量為3023萬桶/日，較上月減少124噸/日，8月份成品油市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。受即將到來的秋季保養(yǎng)季提振，市場(chǎng)人氣趨緊，中間餾分油價(jià)格保持了一定的上漲勢(shì)頭。由于供應(yīng)上升和大西洋盆地駕駛季節(jié)逐漸結(jié)束，需求低迷，全球原油桶頂和桶底均走弱。這導(dǎo)致全球煉油利潤(rùn)率下降，8月份油輪市場(chǎng)漲跌互現(xiàn)，超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下跌，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)較一個(gè)月前上漲。超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下降的主要原因是油輪噸位供應(yīng)、遠(yuǎn)東和英國的低活動(dòng)和節(jié)假日，而蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)則受到港口延誤和及時(shí)更換的支持。8月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月下降，平均為1730萬桶/日，而歐佩克的航運(yùn)量則下降了60萬桶/日。7月份，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫存總量增加了530萬桶，但與5年平均水平相比，赤字約為5500萬桶。原油庫存比五年平均水平低2000萬桶，產(chǎn)品庫存下降3500萬桶。在遠(yuǎn)期保護(hù)期內(nèi)，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股下跌58.5天，比五年平均水平高出0.3天。8月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國商業(yè)石油庫存小幅下降了70萬桶，扭轉(zhuǎn)了過去5個(gè)月的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭，但仍顯示出與5年平均水平相比盈余3070萬桶。原油和成品油庫存分別出現(xiàn)1910萬桶和1150萬桶的盈余。預(yù)計(jì)2013年歐佩克原油需求平均為2990萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，比去年減少50萬桶/日。2014年歐佩克原油需求較上一個(gè)月環(huán)比微跌至2960萬桶/日，較上年下降30萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $107.52/b in August, representing an increase of $3.07over the previous month. All Basket component values improved, except Ecuador’s Oriente. Priceswere generally supported by tightness in the Brent market. The Basket’s year-to-date value stood at$105.32/b, a decline of $4.81 or 4.8% from the same period last year. In August, international crudeoil futures soared on both sides of the Atlantic, as a result of seasonal increases in demand, somesupply outages, and geopolitical worries. Money managers capitalized on the combination of higherpolitical risks and supply disruptions to push crude prices higher as net length for ICE Brent crudefutures and options reached all-time highs. Nymex WTI rose $1.84 to an average of $106.54/b. ICEBrent jumped $3.02 to an average of $110.45/b.World economic growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 remain unchanged at 2.9% and 3.5%,respectively. US growth for 2013 has been revised up to 1.7% from 1.6% due to a stronger-thanexpected2Q13; the 2014 forecast remains at 2.5%. After a return to growth in 2Q13, the Euro-zoneis now expected to see a lower contraction of 0.5% in 2013; the forecast for 2014 remains at 0.6%.Japan’s forecast has been revised to 1.7% from 1.9% and the 2014 forecast is unchanged at 1.4%.India has recently been impacted by capital outflows and its 2013 forecast has been revised from5.6% to 5.3%, while its 2014 growth remains at 6.0%. China’s forecasts remain unchanged at 7.6%and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014 respectively. Overall, developed economies are recovering – albeitfrom low levels – amid a slowdown in emerging and developing economies.World oil demand growth in 2013 was revised up slightly by 25 tb/d, reflecting higher-thanexpectedactual data for the first half of the year, as well as positive signs of improvement in majorOECD economies, particularly in the US, UK and Germany. The forecast for 2013 currently standsat 0.8 mb/d. In 2014, world oil demand is projected to grow by 1.0 mb/d, in line with the previousforecast, despite some marginal regional revisions to account for the latest information.Non-OPEC supply is anticipated to increase by 1.1 mb/d in 2013. Growth is supported by expectedgains in the US, Canada, South Sudan & Sudan, Russia, China, and Colombia, while output fromSyria, Norway, the UK and Australia is projected to decline. In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecastto grow by 1.2 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are expected to average 5.8 mb/d in 2013 and 6.0 mb/d in 2014,representing growth of 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. In August, OPEC crude oil productionstood at 30.23 mb/d, representing a decrease of 124 tb/d from the previous month, according tosecondary sources.Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in August. Middle distillates retained somestrength on the back of tightening sentiment, fuelled by the upcoming autumn maintenance season.The top and bottom of the barrel weakened worldwide, due to lacklustre demand amid risingsupplies and the winding down of the driving season in the Atlantic Basin. This caused refinerymargins to fall across the globe.The tanker market saw mixed movement in August, with VLCC spot freight rates dropping andSuezmax and Aframax spot rates rising from a month earlier. Tanker tonnage availability, low activityand holidays in the Far East and the UK were the main factors behind the decline in VLCC spotfreight rates, while Suezmax and Aframax freight rates saw support from port delays and promptreplacements. OPEC spot fixtures were lower in August compared to the previous month, averaging17.3 mb/d, while OPEC sailings reported a decline of 0.6 mb/d.Total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.3 mb in July, but indicated a deficit of around 55mb with the five-year average. Crude stocks were 20 mb below the five-year average andproduct inventories were down 35 mb. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stoodat 58.5 days, 0.3 days above the five-year average. Preliminary data for August shows that UScommercial oil stocks fell slightly by 0.7 mb, reversing the build of last five months, but stillindicating a surplus of 30.7 mb with the five-year average. Crude and product stocks sawsurpluses of 19.1 mb and 11.5 mb.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is forecast to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport and 0.5 mb/d lower than last year. Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down slightlyto 29.6 mb/d since the last MOMR to show a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to the current year.