今年2月，歐佩克參考價格籃子達到112.75美元/桶，較上月上漲3.47美元。所有籃子組成部分的價值都有所改善，特別是委內(nèi)瑞拉的梅雷。受積極的經(jīng)濟情緒、緊靠美國汽油市場、產(chǎn)量問題以及2013年全球石油需求增長預期的刺激，2月份原油期貨價格繼續(xù)走強。2月份，ICE布倫特原油期貨價格上漲3.75美元，至116.07美元/桶。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）的WTI期貨價格有所改善，盡管微幅上漲50美元，至平均95.32美元/桶。價格上漲的同時，管理資金凈多頭頭寸激增，這在去年的講話范圍內(nèi)。然而，接近月底，由于全球經(jīng)濟的健康，樂觀情緒開始減弱。3月11日，籃子價格為106.96美元/桶。

據(jù)預測，2013年世界經(jīng)濟增長率為3.2%，2012年為3.0%，與上一份報告持平。在美國，實施的預算削減已經(jīng)觸發(fā)了2013年經(jīng)濟增長從1.8%調(diào)整為1.7%。日本已從0.7%上調(diào)至0.8%，主要原因是出口。歐元區(qū)的挑戰(zhàn)仍在繼續(xù)，增長率已從0.1%下調(diào)至0.2%。中國繼續(xù)受益于全球貿(mào)易的反彈，預計2013年將增長8.1%，而印度已從2012年的5.0%增長率下調(diào)至6.0%。最近，全球經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)了溫和的復蘇，但許多主要是財政問題可能會影響未來幾個月的經(jīng)濟增長。

2012年世界石油需求增長率與上月相比幾乎保持在80萬桶/日的水平，盡管由于實際數(shù)據(jù)已可獲得，第四季度的增長率已下調(diào)了10萬桶/日。2013年，世界石油需求增長率保持在80萬桶/日，與之前的評估持平。這一增長的很大一部分來自中國，其次是中東、其他亞洲和拉丁美洲。相比之下，經(jīng)合組織的需求預計將進一步下降，但比上一年有所下降。然而，目前的預測預見到了一些潛在的下行風險。

2013年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應預計將增加100萬桶/日，前一年增長60萬桶/日。2013個非OPEC總供給代表上個月的0.1 Mb/dD的上調(diào)，主要是由于對美國、加拿大、墨西哥、敘利亞和蘇丹的預測的修正，以及一些國家的供應概況的變化，除了歷史數(shù)據(jù)的更新。預計2013年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為600萬桶，比上一年增加20萬桶，與上一份報告持平。此外，根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量增加了74tb/d，平均每天增加3031萬桶。

2月份產(chǎn)品市場繼續(xù)上行。在成品油市場人氣趨緊的背景下，油價上漲變得更加樂觀，由于油價中間出現(xiàn)健康裂縫，大西洋盆地的汽油庫存下降。此外，在強勁的區(qū)域需求和對該地區(qū)供應趨緊的預期支持下，inAsia煉油廠利潤率繼續(xù)回升。

在油輪市場，2月份現(xiàn)貨運價漲跌互現(xiàn)。超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪的即期運價下降，而Afraxmax運價上升。噸位供應、較低的活動和遠東的假期是導致即期運價下降的主要因素。清潔油輪的運費在蘇伊士以東下降，而在蘇伊士以西略有上升。今年2月，歐佩克的觀測點減少，同時歐佩克也開始航行。

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）1月份商業(yè)石油庫存增加310萬桶，與五年平均水平相比略有赤字。原油比季節(jié)平均水平高出50兆桶，而成品油則顯示出幾乎相同的產(chǎn)量。從遠期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股下跌至58.7天，比五年平均水平高出一天半。2月份，美國商業(yè)股下跌1700萬股，但與季節(jié)平均水平相比，出現(xiàn)了4500萬股的盈余。這一下降歸因于產(chǎn)品，因為原油顯示增長。

2012年對歐佩克原油的需求與上一次評估持平，為3010萬桶/日，與上一年相比下降了10萬桶/日。2013年，預計所需石油產(chǎn)量平均為2970萬桶/日，較去年下降了40萬桶/日，較上一份報告向下調(diào)整了10萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket reached $112.75/b in February, a gain of $3.47 over the previousmonth. All Basket component values improved, particularly Venezuela’s Merey. Crude futuresretained strength in February spurred in the first half of the month by positive economic sentiment, abullish US gasoline market, output glitches, and expectations of higher global oil demand growth in2013. The ICE Brent front-month increased by $3.75 in February to $116.07/b. Nymex WTI futuresalso improved, although by a marginal 50 to average $95.32/b. The rise in prices has beenaccompanied by a surge in managed money net-long positions, which were within sight of last year’speak. However, toward the end of the month, the optimistic mood began to erode due to concernsover the health of the global economy. On 11 March, the Basket stood at $106.96/b. 

World economic growth is forecast at 3.2% for 2013 and at 3.0% for 2012, unchanged from theprevious report. In the US, implemented budget cuts have triggered a revision in 2013 growth to1.7% from 1.8%. Japan has been revised up to 0.8% from 0.7%, amid some momentum mainly dueto exports. The Euro-zone’s challenges continue and growth has been revised down to a contractionof 0.2% from growth of 0.1%. China continues to benefit from rebounding global trade and isforecast to grow by 8.1% in 2013, while India has been revised lower to 6.0% from 6.1%, a reboundfrom 5.0% growth in 2012. A tender recovery in the global economy has been visible lately, butmany mostly fiscal issues could impact growth in either direction over the coming months. 

World oil demand growth in 2012 remains almost unchanged at 0.8 mb/d from the previous month,although the fourth quarter has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d as actual data has becomeavailable. For 2013, world oil demand growth remains at 0.8 mb/d, steady from the previousassessment. The large portion of this growth is seen coming from China, followed by the MiddleEast, Other Asia, and Latin America. In contrast, OECD demand is expected to fall further, but byless than in the previous year. However, the current forecast foresees a number of potentialdownward risks. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2013, following growth of 0.6 mb/d inthe previous year. The 2013 total non-OPEC supply represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/dfrom the previous month, mainly due to revisions in forecasts for the US, Canada, Mexico, Syria, andthe Sudans, as well as changes in the supply profile of some countries, in addition to updates tohistorical data. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 6.0 mb/d in 2013,an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year and unchanged from the previous report. InFebruary, total OPEC crude oil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 74 tb/d toaverage 30.31 mb/d. 

Product markets continued to move upwards in February. The top of the barrel became morebullish on the back of tightening sentiment in the product market, with gasoline inventories falling inthe Atlantic Basin amid healthy cracks in the middle of the barrel. Additionally, refinery margins inAsia continued to recover, supported by strong regional demand and expectations of tighteningsupplies in the region. 

In the tanker market, spot freight rates were mixed in February. VLCC and Suezmax spot freightrates declined, while Afraxmax rates increased. Tonnage availability, lower activity and holidays inthe Far East were the main factors behind the drop in spot freight rates. Freight rates for cleantankers declined east of Suez, while increasing slightly west of Suez. In February, OPEC spotfixtures fell, along with OPEC sailings. 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 3.1 mb in January, representing a slight deficit with the fiveyearaverage. Crude stood at 50 mb higher than the seasonal average, while products indicated adeficit of almost the same amount. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocksstood at 58.7 days, one-and-a-half days more than the five-year average. In February, UScommercial stocks fell 17 mb, but showed a surplus of 45 mb with the seasonal average. This dropwas attributed to products, as crude show an increase.

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at30.1 mb/d, indicating a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous year. In 2013, required OPECcrude is forecasted to average 29.7 mb/d, a drop of 0.4 mb/d from last year and a downwardadjustment of 0.1 mb/d from the previous report.