10月，歐佩克的參考價(jià)格區(qū)間在78.50-81.50美元/桶的高位窄幅波動(dòng)。這導(dǎo)致每月平均價(jià)格接近80美元/桶，為今年以來(lái)第二高，僅次于4月份的82.33美元/桶。歐佩克參考籃子的上漲是由未來(lái)市場(chǎng)的看漲情緒推動(dòng)的，主要?dú)w因于第二輪量化調(diào)整后美元走軟。去年11月，紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一個(gè)月上漲6.43美元，至10月略低于82美元/桶，11月第一周創(chuàng)下兩年來(lái)新高。同樣，ICE布倫特原油價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲5.12美元，至平均83.54美元/桶，然后在11月突破88美元/桶。在經(jīng)合組織制造業(yè)擴(kuò)張好于預(yù)期的支持下，2010年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率修正至4.1%。2011年的增長(zhǎng)率仍保持在3.6%不變，因?yàn)槟壳暗脑鲩L(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭能否延續(xù)到來(lái)年仍不明朗。相對(duì)有彈性的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)2010年和2011年分別增長(zhǎng)2.7%和2.4%。2010年，日本的預(yù)測(cè)值略微上升至2.9%，2011年保持在1.3%不變。德國(guó)的制造業(yè)基礎(chǔ)一直推動(dòng)歐元區(qū)的擴(kuò)張，2010年為1.4%，2011年為1.1%。中國(guó)2010年和2011年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別保持在9.5%和8.6%，而印度2010年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期被修正為8.5%，2011年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期保持在7.7%不變。2010年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)被修正為190 tb/d，目前為130萬(wàn)桶/d。石油需求在第三季度有所回升。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期，加上各種刺激計(jì)劃的支持，經(jīng)合組織的消費(fèi)已經(jīng)超出預(yù)期。對(duì)2011年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)已經(jīng)上調(diào)了約120 tb/d，目前為120 mb/d。經(jīng)合組織需求前景的改善是這一調(diào)整背后的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素。然而，考慮到較高的基準(zhǔn)線，石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將低于本年度。2010年非歐佩克國(guó)家的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加100萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告略有上升，美國(guó)、中國(guó)、巴西、俄羅斯、加拿大和哥倫比亞的增長(zhǎng)為支撐。2011年，非歐佩克的供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)360 tb/d，與之前的評(píng)估一致。預(yù)計(jì)巴西、加拿大、加納、哥倫比亞、哈薩克斯坦和阿塞拜疆將成為明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要貢獻(xiàn)者，而挪威、英國(guó)和墨西哥預(yù)計(jì)將經(jīng)歷最大跌幅。據(jù)估計(jì)，2011年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為520萬(wàn)桶，比今年增長(zhǎng)了450 tb/d。10月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為2930萬(wàn)桶/日，比上個(gè)月增加了144噸/日。法國(guó)罷工后，由于對(duì)歐洲的公開套利，全球強(qiáng)勁的蒸餾油需求略微提振了產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的人氣。然而，燃料油需求疲弱削弱了對(duì)一些地區(qū)的影響。一旦歐洲供應(yīng)緊張局面結(jié)束，鑒于季節(jié)性需求低迷，預(yù)計(jì)汽油市場(chǎng)將回到熊市，未來(lái)幾個(gè)月燃料油供應(yīng)過(guò)?？赡軙?huì)使煉油廠利潤(rùn)率持續(xù)低迷。10月份，油輪市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了多種模式。與其他航線的活躍市場(chǎng)相比，一些市場(chǎng)的高噸位可用性加上石油需求的季節(jié)性下降。超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)下降了2.9%，蘇伊士型油輪上漲了24.8%，阿芙拉型油輪10月份上漲了11.6%。清潔市場(chǎng)運(yùn)價(jià)在10月份也出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，呈現(xiàn)出混合格局。蘇伊士以東的原油價(jià)格下跌了14.4%，而蘇伊士以西的原油價(jià)格上漲了4.4%。10月份，美國(guó)商業(yè)股下跌了1160萬(wàn)股，盡管原油產(chǎn)量增加了720萬(wàn)股，但產(chǎn)品卻大幅減少了1880萬(wàn)股。盡管出現(xiàn)了平倉(cāng)，但美國(guó)股市仍較五年平均水平輕松盈余10700萬(wàn)美元。歐盟15國(guó)加上挪威，原油庫(kù)存總量增加850萬(wàn)桶，同比減少1070萬(wàn)桶，而產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存則下降了220萬(wàn)桶。歐洲股市比五年平均水平高出630萬(wàn)英鎊。9月份最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，日本商業(yè)股下跌1060萬(wàn)股。然而，10月份的初步跡象顯示，石油輸出國(guó)組織原油需求反彈790萬(wàn)桶。2010年，石油輸出國(guó)組織原油需求估計(jì)為2880萬(wàn)桶/日，此前的報(bào)告上調(diào)了30萬(wàn)桶/日。與一年前相比，下降了0.2 mb/d。2011年，石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）原油需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為2920萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年增加約40萬(wàn)桶/日，此前的評(píng)估上調(diào)了40萬(wàn)桶/日。

? The OPEC Reference Basket moved within a higher but narrow range of $78.50-81.50/b inOctober. This resulted in a monthly average of nearly $80/b, the second highest so far this year afterApril’s $82.33/b. The rise in the OPEC Reference Basket was driven by bullish sentiment in thefutures market, mainly attributable to the weaker US dollar following the second round of quantitativeeasing. The Basket continued moving higher in November to stand at $85.27/b on 10 November.The Nymex WTI front-month rose $6.43 to stand slightly below $82/b in October before going on tohit a two-year high in the first week of November. Similarly, ICE Brent gained a further $5.12 toaverage $83.54/b and then moved beyond $88/b in November.? Growth in the world economy was revised up to 4.1% for 2010, supported by a better-thanexpectedexpansion in the manufacturing sector of the OECD. Growth for 2011 remains unchangedat 3.6% as it is still unclear if the current momentum can be carried over into the coming year. Arelative resilient US economy is now forecast to grow at 2.7% in 2010 and 2.4% in 2011. Theforecast for Japan was revised up slightly to 2.9% for 2010 and left unchanged at 1.3% for 2011.Germany’s manufacturing base has been driving the expansion in the Euro-zone to 1.4% in 2010and 1.1% in 2011. Growth expectations for China remain at 9.5% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2011, whileIndia’s forecast was revised up to 8.5% in 2010 and remains unchanged at 7.7% in 2011.? World oil demand growth in 2010 has been revised up by 190 tb/d to now stand at 1.3 mb/d. Oildemand has been picking up in the third quarter. Consumption in the OECD has outpacedexpectations as a result of the stronger-than-expected economic activities, supported by variousstimulus plans. The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2011 has been revised up by around120 tb/d to now stand at 1.2 mb/d. The improved outlook for OECD demand is a key factor behindthis adjustment. However, given the higher baseline, oil demand growth is expected to be lower thanin the current year.? Non-OPEC supply growth in 2010 is projected to increase by 1.0 mb/d, a minor upward revisionfrom the previous report, supported by growth in the US, China, Brazil, Russia, Canada, andColombia. In 2011, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 360 tb/d, in line with the previousassessment. Brazil, Canada, Ghana, Colombia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan are expected to be themain contributors to next year’s growth, while Norway, UK, and Mexico are anticipated to experiencethe largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are estimated to average 5.2 mb/d in2011, indicating growth of 450 tb/d over the current year. In October, OPEC crude productionaveraged 29.30 mb/d, an increase of 144 tb/d over the previous month.? Strong distillate demand across the globe amid open arbitrage to Europe following the French strikehas slightly lifted sentiment in the product markets. However, weak fuel oil demand has diminishedthe impact in some areas. Once the tight supply situation in Europe ends, the gasoline market isexpected to move back over to the bearish side, given low seasonal demand, and the oversupply offuel oil is likely to keep refinery margins depressed over the coming months.? The tanker market experienced mixed patterns in October. High tonnage availability combined withthe seasonal drop in oil demand in some markets contrasted with active markets for other routes.VLCC spot freight rates declined 2.9%, while Suezmax jumped 24.8% and Aframax rose 11.6%m-o-m in October. Clean market freight rates also experienced a negative performance in Octoberamid mixed patterns. East of Suez rates slumped 14.4%, while West of Suez rates rose 4.4%.? US commercial stocks declined 11.6 mb in October, despite a 7.2 mb build in crude as productsdropped by a substantial 18.8 mb. Despite the draw, US stocks remained at a comfortable surplus of107 mb over the five-year average. EU 15 plus Norway total inventories rose 8.5 mb driven by abuild of 10.7 mb in crude, while products fell 2.2 mb. European stocks stood 6.3 mb above the fiveyearaverage. The most recent data for September shows commercial stocks in Japan fell by10.6 mb. However, preliminary indications for October show a rebound of 7.9 mb.? The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 28.8 mb/d, following an upward adjustment of0.3 mb/d from the previous report. This represents a decline of 0.2 mb/d compared to a year ago. In2011, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 29.2 mb/d, about 0.4 mb/d higher thanin the previous year, following an upward adjustment of 0.4 mb/d from the previous assessment.