10月的第一周，歐佩克的一籃子參考指數(shù)下跌至100美元以下。然而，到本月中旬，隨著解決歐債危機(jī)的希望的股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展以及美國(guó)和中國(guó)的支持性經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，歐佩克的走勢(shì)出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)。按月度計(jì)算，歐佩克參考價(jià)格平均為106.32美元/桶，降幅為5.30美元。在原油期貨市場(chǎng)上，紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI的前一個(gè)月合約上漲82美元，至10月份的平均價(jià)格為86.43美元/桶，而ICE布倫特則下跌1.12美元，至平均價(jià)格為108.79美元/桶，歐佩克的參考數(shù)據(jù)為113.79美元/桶。2011年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)保持在3.6%不變，2012年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)從3.7%下調(diào)至3.6%。2011年和2012年，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別為1.6%和1.8%。雖然歐元區(qū)今年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期仍為1.6%，但明年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期已從之前的0.8%下調(diào)至0.7%。同樣，盡管日本今年的預(yù)測(cè)仍保持在-0.8%不變，但2012年的預(yù)測(cè)已從之前的2.4%下調(diào)至2.2%。發(fā)展中國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)水平仍然很高。中國(guó)2011年和2012年分別保持在9.0%和8.5%不變。根據(jù)上一份報(bào)告，印度預(yù)計(jì)2011年和2012年的石油需求增長(zhǎng)率均為7.6%。2011年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)為90萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平。盡管進(jìn)入了冬季，但由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭放緩，預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織的石油需求將進(jìn)一步萎縮，特別是在歐盟。此外，美國(guó)汽油需求在過(guò)去四個(gè)月一直在下降，反映出經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷。2012年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)也保持在120萬(wàn)桶/日不變。但是，由于經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，未來(lái)一年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的不確定性有所增加。預(yù)計(jì)2011年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)將增加20萬(wàn)桶/日，表示較上一份報(bào)告向下修訂了約140 tb/d。2012年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)80萬(wàn)桶/日，與之前的評(píng)估一致。巴西、加拿大、哥倫比亞、美國(guó)、加納和俄國(guó)有望成為明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要貢獻(xiàn)者，而挪威、英國(guó)和墨西哥有望經(jīng)歷最大的衰退。據(jù)估計(jì)，2012年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均產(chǎn)量為570萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年增長(zhǎng)了360噸/日。10月，歐佩克的平均日產(chǎn)量為2989萬(wàn)桶，較上月略有增加。10月，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。由于石化行業(yè)石腦油需求疲軟，以及汽油消費(fèi)量低于去年水平，輕質(zhì)餾分油繼續(xù)失地。由于強(qiáng)勁的需求和緊縮的市場(chǎng)，使得healthyside的利潤(rùn)率保持在較高水平，全球中間餾分油和燃料油的蓬勃復(fù)蘇抵消了這一點(diǎn)。在美國(guó)，每周數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中間餾分油需求達(dá)到兩年來(lái)的最高水平，超過(guò)400萬(wàn)桶/日。展望未來(lái)，隨著冬季的開(kāi)始，預(yù)計(jì)中間餾分油需求將繼續(xù)支撐產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)。由于中東原油需求增加，歐佩克10月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量增加了5%，平均為1180萬(wàn)桶/日。歐佩克10月份的出海量幾乎穩(wěn)定在2250萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月減少了一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。由于季節(jié)性需求和博斯普魯斯海峽的延誤，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的原油現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。蘇伊士西部地區(qū)的活動(dòng)是清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)上漲的幕后黑手，而蘇伊士東部地區(qū)的運(yùn)價(jià)則繼續(xù)疲軟。10月份，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存連續(xù)第二個(gè)月下降，下降了980萬(wàn)桶。這只歸因于產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存下降1310萬(wàn)桶，而原油庫(kù)存上升320萬(wàn)桶。盡管如此，美國(guó)商業(yè)庫(kù)存仍大致與五年平均水平持平。在日本，9月份最新月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存增加了690萬(wàn)桶，受原油和成品油庫(kù)存分別增加240萬(wàn)桶和450萬(wàn)桶的推動(dòng)，日本的商業(yè)庫(kù)存略低于季節(jié)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。2011年，歐佩克原油需求量較上一次評(píng)估增加了10萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到30萬(wàn)桶/日，對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求比上一年高出30萬(wàn)桶/日。2012年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求平均為3000萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一份報(bào)告高出約10萬(wàn)桶/日，與今年持平。

? The OPEC Reference Basket decreased in the first week of October to below the $100 mark.However, by mid-month, it had reversed course following developments in equity markets on hopesfor a solution to the European debt crisis and supportive economic data in the US and China. Inmonthly terms, the OPEC Reference Basket averaged $106.32/b, representing a decline of $5.30.On the crude oil futures market, the Nymex WTI front-month contract rose 82 to average $86.43/bin October, while ICE Brent lost $1.12 to average $108.79/b. On 8 November, the OPEC ReferenceBasket stood at $113.79/b.? The forecast for world economic growth in 2011 remains unchanged at 3.6%, while the forecastfor global growth in 2012 has been revised down from 3.7% to 3.6%. US growth remains unchangedat 1.6% for 2011 and 1.8% for 2012. While growth expectations in the Euro-zone remain at 1.6% forthis year, the forecast for next year has been revised down to 0.7% from 0.8% previously. Similarly,while the forecast for Japan for this year remains unchanged at minus 0.8%, the forecast for 2012has been revised down to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. Growth levels in the developing countriesremain high. China remains unchanged at 9.0% for 2011 and 8.5% for 2012. India is forecast to seegrowth of 7.6% in both 2011 and 2012, in line with the previous report.? World oil demand growth in 2011 is forecast at 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report.Despite the emerging winter season, OECD oil demand is expected to see a further contraction as aresult of slowing economic momentum, particularly in the EU. Moreover, US gasoline demand hasbeen on the decline for the past four months reflecting the sluggish economy. The forecast for globaloil demand growth in 2012 also remains unchanged at 1.2 mb/d. However, uncertainties in the worldeconomic outlook for the coming year have increased due to the challenges facing the OECDeconomies.?Non-OPEC supply in 2011 is forecast to increase by 0.2 mb/d, representing a downward revision ofaround 140 tb/d from the previous report. In 2012, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by0.8 mb/d, in line with the previous assessment. Brazil, Canada, Colombia, the US, Ghana, andRussia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth, while Norway, UK, andMexico are anticipated to experience the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oilsare estimated to average 5.7 mb/d in 2012, indicating growth of 360 tb/d over the current year. InOctober, OPEC production averaged 29.89 mb/d, a minor increase over the previous month.?Product markets showed mix performance in October. Light distillates continued to lose grounddue to weak naphtha demand in the petrochemical industry and gasoline consumption remainedbelow year-ago levels. This was offset by a vibrant recovery in middle distillates and fuel oil acrossthe globe, on the back of strong demand and a tighter market which kept margins on the healthyside. In the US, weekly data showed middle distillate demand reaching a two-year high of more than4 mb/d. Looking ahead, with the start of the winter season, middle distillate demand is expected tocontinue to support product markets.? OPEC spot fixtures increased by 5% in October to average 11.8 mb/d on the back of increasedAsian demand for Middle East crudes. OPEC sailings were nearly steady in October at 22.5 mb/d, aminor decrease from the previous month. Crude oil spot freight rates registered strong growthbacked by Suezmax and Aframax as result of seasonal demand and delays in the Bosporus. Westof Suez activities were behind the increase in clean spot freight rates, while East of Suez ratesremained weak.? US commercial oil inventories fell for the second consecutive month in October, down 9.8 mb. Thedrop was attributed solely to product stocks which fell 13.1 mb, while crude inventories rose 3.2 mb.Despite the draw, US commercial stocks remain broadly in line with the five-year average. In Japan,the most recent monthly data for September shows that commercial oil inventories rose by 6.9 mb,driven by a build in crude and products which increased by 2.4 mb and 4.5 mb respectively.Commercial inventories in Japan stood slightly below their seasonal norm.?Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessmentto stand at 30.0 mb/d. At this level, the demand for OPEC crude is 0.3 mb/d above the previousyear. In 2012, demand for OPEC crude is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, about 0.1 mb/d higherthan in the previous report and unchanged from the current year.