石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的一籃子參考原油價(jià)格下跌3.02美元/桶，跌幅4%，至2月份的72.99美元/桶。這主要?dú)w因于對歐元區(qū)（尤其是希臘）過度外債問題引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的日益擔(dān)憂。然而，最近市場情緒發(fā)生了變化，經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)更加樂觀，股市上漲，這也為原油價(jià)格提供了支撐。在這些事態(tài)發(fā)展之后，歐佩克的參考價(jià)格在3月8日升至77.86美元/桶，3月9日降至77.38美元/桶。

繼2009年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長0.9%后，2010年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期仍保持在3.4%不變。對一些經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)行了小幅修訂。在經(jīng)合組織（OECD）中，美國略微下調(diào)至2.4%，日本上調(diào)至1.3%。在發(fā)達(dá)國家中，中國被修正為9.3%。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍主要由政府主導(dǎo)的刺激措施支撐。對于幾乎所有經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的公共債務(wù)水平、全球創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高失業(yè)率以及中國避免經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱的能力，人們?nèi)匀桓械綋?dān)憂

2010年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長90萬桶/日，前一年則萎縮140萬桶/日。這意味著從以前的評估向上修訂了0.1 mb/d。石油需求一直高度依賴于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展速度。預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織的需求仍將保持負(fù)增長，約為15萬桶/日，而受中國和中東地區(qū)的推動，經(jīng)合組織的需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長10萬桶/日。

2010年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加40萬桶/日，前一年增長60萬桶/日。2010年的數(shù)字比上一次評估上升了0.1 mb/DF，這主要是由于對處理否定的估計(jì)數(shù)以及各種歷史數(shù)據(jù)更新的修訂。預(yù)計(jì)2010年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為490萬桶，比上一年增加了50萬桶。二級消息人士稱，今年2月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量增加192tb/d，平均為2936mb/d。

隨著法國煉油廠罷工和原油價(jià)格下跌，持續(xù)的寒冷天氣為2月份的煉油利潤率提供了支撐。季節(jié)性的煉油廠周轉(zhuǎn)和持續(xù)的自主減產(chǎn)也促進(jìn)了產(chǎn)品市場的積極發(fā)展。隨著冬季即將結(jié)束，主要產(chǎn)品缺乏旺盛的需求，預(yù)計(jì)近期產(chǎn)品市場人氣不會明顯好轉(zhuǎn)。這種情況可能會鼓勵(lì)煉油廠繼續(xù)實(shí)行低產(chǎn)量政策，并對原油市場基本面施加壓力。

2月份，油輪市場走弱，所有航線的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)都在下降。這項(xiàng)工作得到了各種假期、煉油廠維護(hù)和減少延誤的支持。運(yùn)營固定資產(chǎn)減少了160萬桶/日，平均為111萬桶/日，相當(dāng)于出口固定資產(chǎn)總額的近三分之二。據(jù)初步估計(jì)，歐佩克的航行量增加了43萬桶/日，達(dá)到23.30萬桶/日。

2月份美國商業(yè)石油庫存基本保持不變。原油的增加被產(chǎn)品的減少所抵消，使美國商業(yè)庫存比季節(jié)正常水平高出7300萬桶。今年1月，日本商業(yè)石油庫存增加270萬桶，但仍低于5年平均水平1500萬桶。2月份的初步跡象顯示，增量和產(chǎn)品之間存在差距。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2009年歐佩克原油需求為2900萬桶/日，比上一份報(bào)告高出約20萬桶/日。與上一年相比，這一數(shù)字仍下降了約220萬桶/日。2010年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求平均為2890萬桶/日，比上一次評估高出約20萬桶/日，比上年同期下降4萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket fell by $3.02/b or 4% to reach to $72.99/b in February. Thedecline was mainly attributed to growing concern about the economic recovery triggered bysovereign debt issues in the Euro-zone, particularly in Greece. However, market sentimentchanged recently amid more positive economic data and rising equities, which provide supportfor crude prices as well. Following these developments, the OPEC Reference Basket rose to$77.86/b on 8 March before settling down to $77.38/b on 9 March. 

The forecast for the world economy remains unchanged at 3.4% growth for 2010 following acontraction of 0.9% in 2009. Minor revisions were carried out for some economies. In the OECD,the US has been revised down slightly to 2.4% and Japan adjusted higher to 1.3%. In thedeveloping countries, China was revised up to 9.3%. The global economy continues to bemostly supported by the governmental-led stimulus. Concerns remain regarding the level ofpublic debt in almost all OECD regions, record-high unemployment levels across the globe andthe ability of China to avoid an overheating 

World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2010, following a contraction of 1.4 mb/din the previous year. This represents an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previousassessment. Oil demand has been highly dependent upon the pace of the global economicrecovery. OECD demand is still expected to remain at negative growth around 0.15 mb/d, whilenon-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.0 mb/d, driven by China and the Middle Eastregion. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.4 mb/d in 2010, following growth of0.6 mb/d in the previous year. The 2010 figure represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/dfrom the previous assessment, mainly due to revisions to the estimations for processing gainsas well as various historical data updates. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expectedto average 4.9 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous year. In February,OPEC crude oil production rose by 192 tb/d to average 29.36 mb/d, according to secondarysources. 

Continuation of the cold weather along with refinery strike in France and lower crude pricesprovided support for refining margins in February. Seasonal refinery turnaround andcontinuation of discretionary run cuts have also contributed to positive developments in theproduct markets. With the approaching end of winter season and lack of robust demand formajor products, product market sentiment is not expected to improve significantly in the nearfuture. This situation may encourage refineries to continue their low run policy and exertpressure on crude market fundamentals. 

In February, the tanker market weakened, with spot freight rates decreasing on all routes. Thedecline was backed by various holidays, refinery maintenance and reduction of delays. OPECfixtures decreased by 1.6 mb/d to average 11.1 mb/d, which correspond to almost two thirds oftotal export fixtures. OPEC sailing increased by 0.43 mb/d to 23.30 mb/d, according topreliminary estimates. 

US commercial oil inventories remained broadly unchanged in February. A build in crude wasoffset by the draw in products, leaving US commercial inventories at 73 mb above the seasonalnorm. In January, commercial oil inventories in Japan rose by 2.7 mb, but remained 15 mbbelow the five-year average. Preliminary indications for February shows a draw divided betweencrude and products. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated at 29.0 mb/d, around 0.2 mb/d higher thanin the previous report. This still represents a decline of around 2.2 mb/d compared to theprevious year. In 2010, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 28.9 mb/d, around0.2 mb/d higher than in the previous assessment and a decline of 40,000 b/d from a year earlier.