原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)

4月份，歐佩克的一籃子參考價(jià)格上漲了12美元，至104.27美元/桶，而大多數(shù)組成部分的價(jià)格都略有改善。原油價(jià)格的支撐因素包括更為堅(jiān)挺的煉油利潤(rùn)率、持續(xù)的供應(yīng)中斷以及一些煉油廠的維修恢復(fù)。平均而言，紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI上漲1.53美元至102.03美元/桶，ICE布倫特上漲34美元至108.09美元/桶。布倫特WTI價(jià)差本月結(jié)束時(shí)平均約為6.05美元/桶，為2013年9月以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

2014年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率保持在3.4%，2013年增長(zhǎng)2.9%。歐洲經(jīng)合組織（ECD）的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)仍為2.0%，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率下調(diào)，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率小幅上升。中國(guó)和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別為7.5%和5.6%。2014年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要推動(dòng)力來(lái)自經(jīng)合組織（OECD）經(jīng)濟(jì)體，而新興市場(chǎng)正在放緩。隨著一些主要經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體（主要是美國(guó)和日本）最近的疲弱，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)目前被視為略微偏向于下行。

世界石油需求

預(yù)計(jì)2014年全球石油需求將增加114萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到9115萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平。幾乎一半的年度石油需求增長(zhǎng)似乎來(lái)自中國(guó)和中東。2013年世界石油需求預(yù)測(cè)值不變，為9001萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年增長(zhǎng)105萬(wàn)桶/日。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2014年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)略微上升，達(dá)到138萬(wàn)桶/日。2013年的估計(jì)也略有上升，達(dá)到135萬(wàn)桶/日。2013年和2014年，歐佩克國(guó)家的天然氣供應(yīng)量分別下降了10萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到566萬(wàn)桶/日和581萬(wàn)桶/日。根據(jù)第二來(lái)源，歐佩克4月份的原油產(chǎn)量平均為2959萬(wàn)桶/日，增加了131噸/日。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

受油價(jià)上漲的推動(dòng)，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)在4月份走強(qiáng)。美國(guó)強(qiáng)勁的汽油需求和出口美國(guó)的更多機(jī)會(huì)導(dǎo)致利潤(rùn)率大幅回升。在亞洲，油價(jià)上漲部分受到了底部持續(xù)走軟的限制。

油輪市場(chǎng)

4月份運(yùn)價(jià)下降，臟油輪和干凈油輪均出現(xiàn)虧損。較低的年需求、煉油廠維護(hù)和節(jié)假日是導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下降的主要因素。清潔油輪市場(chǎng)受類似因素影響，蘇伊士以東市場(chǎng)下跌4.5%，蘇伊士以西市場(chǎng)下跌21.5%。

股票變動(dòng)

經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）商業(yè)股3月份下跌，主要受原油價(jià)格下跌導(dǎo)致的產(chǎn)品推動(dòng)。五年平均赤字為115MB，分為原油和產(chǎn)品兩部分。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為56.8天，比五年平均水平低約0.2天。4月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存猛增4710萬(wàn)桶，但仍與5年平均水平持平。

供需平衡

與上一份報(bào)告相比，2013年和2014年對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求分別上升了10萬(wàn)桶/日。2013年歐佩克原油需求為3010萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年下降了040萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2014年歐佩克原油需求為2980萬(wàn)桶/日，較2013年下降40萬(wàn)桶/日

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket in April increased 12 to $104.27/b, amid marginalimprovements in most component values. Crude prices were supported by firmer refiningmargins, ongoing supply outages, and the return of some refineries from maintenance. Onaverage, Nymex WTI gained $1.53 to $102.03/b and ICE Brent increased 34 to$108.09/b. The Brent-WTI spread ended the month with an average of around $6.05/b, thenarrowest since September 2013. 

World Economy

 World economic growth in 2014 remains at 3.4%, following growth of 2.9% in 2013. TheOECD growth forecast remains at 2.0%, with the US revised down and the Euro-zoneslightly higher. China’s growth forecast remains at 7.5% and India’s at 5.6%. The main liftfor 2014 growth is seen coming from OECD economies, while emerging markets areslowing. With the most recent weakness in some major OECD economies – mainly the USand Japan – the risk to the global growth forecast is seen currently skewed slightly to thedownside. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 mb/d to reach 91.15 mb/d in 2014,unchanged from the previous report. Almost half of annual oil demand growth is seencoming from China and the Middle East. The estimate for world oil demand in 2013 wasunchanged at 90.01 mb/d, representing growth of 1.05 mb/d over the previous year. 

World Oil Supply

 Non-OPEC supply growth in 2014 was revised up marginally to stand at 1.38 mb/d. Theestimate for 2013 was also adjusted slightly higher to stand at 1.35 mb/d. OPEC NGLswere revised down by 0.1 mb/d for both 2013 and 2014 to stand at 5.66 mb/d and5.81 mb/d respectively. OPEC crude production, according to secondary sources,averaged 29.59 mb/d in April, representing an increase of 131 tb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in April, driven by developments at thetop of the barrel. Stronger gasoline demand in the US and higher export opportunities toSouth America led to a sharp recovery in margins. In Asia, the uptick was partially limitedby the continued weakness at the bottom of the barrel. 

Tanker Market 

Freight rates declined in April, with both dirty and clean tankers losing ground. Lowertonnage demand, refinery maintenance and holidays were the main factors behind thedecline in spot freight rates. The clean tanker market was influenced by similar factors, withthe East of Suez market down 4.5% and the West of Suez declining 21.5%. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial stocks declined in March, driven mainly by products as crude saw abuild. The deficit with the five-year average stood at 115 mb, split between crude andproducts. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 56.8 days, around0.2 days less than the five-year average. Preliminary data for April shows US commercialoil stocks jumped by 47.1 mb, but remained in line with the five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 and 2014 saw an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d eachcompared to the previous report. At 30.1 mb/d, demand for OPEC crude in 2013 stood0.4 mb/d lower than in the previous year. Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 is forecast at29.8 mb/d, down 0.4 mb/d from the 2013 level