6月份中國工業(yè)產(chǎn)出和投資的較低增長率表明，信貸和投資限制的收緊正在影響一些經(jīng)濟部門。零售額或出口額幾乎沒有疲軟的跡象。中國當(dāng)局可能會推遲進(jìn)一步的措施，比如提高利率，直到今年夏天末第二季度的數(shù)據(jù)出來。到目前為止，中國經(jīng)濟增速仍在穩(wěn)步放緩，預(yù)計2004年中國經(jīng)濟增速將保持在8.8%不變。

由于第二季度消費者支出疲軟，美國對2004年GDP增長的預(yù)測有所下降。歐元區(qū)正在復(fù)蘇，但主要集中在那些受益于強勁海外需求的工業(yè)部門。由于缺乏持續(xù)增長的失業(yè)率，歐洲的消費支出繼續(xù)受到抑制。相比之下，日本經(jīng)濟正經(jīng)歷國內(nèi)需求和出口需求共同支撐的平衡復(fù)蘇。然而，如果中國經(jīng)濟衰退加速，日本將在2005年遭受重創(chuàng)。

經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)2004年的預(yù)測沒有變化，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計將增長3.5%。美國和日本的預(yù)測分別為4.5%和4.0%，增幅為0.2%。對歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測不變，為1.8%。對中國和俄羅斯的預(yù)測也分別穩(wěn)定在8.8%和7%。對非洲、拉丁美洲、亞洲（不包括日本）和發(fā)展中國家的預(yù)測略高，對2004年世界經(jīng)濟的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長預(yù)測不變，為4.8%。

2005年的預(yù)測意味著，在2003年開始的經(jīng)濟大幅復(fù)蘇之后，經(jīng)濟增長率將回歸正常水平。經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)預(yù)計2005年將增長3%，美國經(jīng)濟將達(dá)到3.7%。預(yù)計2005年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長率將增至2.2%，但日本經(jīng)濟可能放緩，僅增長2%，因為中國和美國需求下降可能限制出口。預(yù)計發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體2005年的增長速度也將放緩。據(jù)預(yù)測，整個世界經(jīng)濟增長率為4.3%，低于2004年的估計值，但大大高于20年來約3.3%的平均水平。

繼5月份創(chuàng)下36.27美元/桶的歷史月度高點之后，歐佩克參考籃子在六月下跌了1.66美元/桶，跌幅為4.6%。然而，6月份的平均值為34.61美元/桶，是過去22年中該月的最高平均值，而2004年迄今的平均值為32.59美元/桶，比2003年的平均值高出近16%，即4.48美元/桶。在6月份的第一周，該籃子的平均值為36.49美元/桶，下跌了21美元/桶，跌幅為0.6%，隨后第二周更為明顯的下跌1.94美元/桶，跌幅為5.3%，至34.55美元/桶。下跌的速度在第三周有所放緩，但該籃子仍下跌了30/b或0.9%，至平均34.25美元/桶。到6月底，該籃子開始出現(xiàn)一些復(fù)蘇跡象，將前一周的大部分虧損回升至平均34.54美元/桶。然后在截至7月1日的一周內(nèi)，該籃子又縮減了1.28美元/桶，至平均33.26美元/桶。在截至7月15日的一周內(nèi)，該股強勁上漲逾2.5美元/桶，當(dāng)時該籃子指數(shù)平均為35.88美元/桶。

對美國持續(xù)汽油短缺的擔(dān)憂最近有所緩解，導(dǎo)致2004年6月汽油價格大幅下跌。這一轉(zhuǎn)變使市場參與者更加看跌，并導(dǎo)致他們平倉多頭頭寸。在這些事態(tài)發(fā)展之后，6月份成品油價格全面下跌，與原油價格下降趨勢一致，并降低了所有主要市場的煉油廠利潤率。不過，7月初，由于汽油庫存減少，原油和成品油價格上漲，市場情緒發(fā)生變化。

2004年6月，歐佩克石油產(chǎn)量的增加并沒有反映在歐佩克地區(qū)的估計現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量上，該地區(qū)的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降了278萬桶/日，至1314萬桶/日。歐佩克在全球現(xiàn)貨租賃中所占的份額下降了約2%，降至63%，比一年前增加了14%。全球現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)意外下降，對6月份原油運價幾乎沒有影響，6月份原油運價在噸位供應(yīng)緊張和油輪需求量高的背景下維持了上月的漲幅。成品油油輪與原油市場的走勢不同，因為一些航線的表現(xiàn)并不能讓船東滿意。預(yù)計今年世界經(jīng)濟增長率為4.8%，目前石油總需求預(yù)計將增長210萬桶/日或2.67%，達(dá)到平均8090萬桶/日，較上一個《海洋哺乳動物報告》中的數(shù)字上升了20萬桶/日。在世界經(jīng)濟增長4.3%，恢復(fù)正常氣候條件的基礎(chǔ)上，初步預(yù)測2005年世界石油需求為167萬桶/日至8256萬桶/日，以及中國和美國強勁而適度的消費增長。隨著有關(guān)關(guān)鍵因素的新信息的提供，本初步評估將作進(jìn)一步調(diào)整。

根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克6月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計為2892萬桶/日，比5月份的數(shù)據(jù)高出71萬桶/日。據(jù)估計，2004年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量為5002萬桶/日，比2003年的4866萬桶/日高出136萬桶/日。預(yù)計2004年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)將達(dá)到5121萬桶/日，比2004年的預(yù)測增加119萬桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的凈出口量估計分別為556MB/d和646MB/d，預(yù)計2004年和2005年將分別增至738MB/d和788MB/d。

在2004年5月28日至7月2日期間，美國商業(yè)股繼續(xù)增加2280萬股，達(dá)到96640萬股，增長率為80萬股/日。在截至7月9日的一周內(nèi)，美國商業(yè)股微漲0.40億股，至9668萬股，同比順差升至1600萬股，漲幅1.7%。歐洲石油庫存總量扭轉(zhuǎn)了過去兩個月的上升趨勢，下降860萬桶至106690萬桶，降幅為30萬桶/日。5月底，日本商業(yè)石油庫存扭轉(zhuǎn)了上個月的下降趨勢，季節(jié)性增長810萬桶至16840萬桶，降幅為30萬桶/日。

盡管一些經(jīng)合組織國家的初步庫存數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2004年第2季度的庫存進(jìn)一步增加，但目前的余額表明，供應(yīng)量超過了需求量290萬桶/日，仍有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的庫存沒有說明。這可以歸因于非經(jīng)合組織國家的庫存數(shù)據(jù)可能也有所增加，以及5月底已經(jīng)顯示出增長勢頭的水上石油。報告不足和/或未報告的需求也可能造成這種差異。

Lower growth rates for industrial output and investment in China for June provided evidence that tighter credit andinvestment restrictions are affecting some sectors of the economy. There is little sign of weakness in retail sales orexports. The Chinese authorities may delay further measures — such as raising interest rates — until second quarterdata is available towards the end of the summer. Thus far the slowdown continues at a measured pace and theforecast growth rate of the Chinese economy is unchanged at 8.8% for 2004. 

The US GDP growth forecast for 2004 has been reduced as a result of weaker consumer spending in the secondquarter. Euro-zone recovery is under way but is concentrated in those industrial sectors which benefit from strongoverseas demand. European consumer spending continues to be held back by a lack of sustained growth inemployment. In contrast, the Japanese economy is experiencing a balanced recovery supported by both domestic andexport demand. Nevertheless, Japan will suffer in 2005 if the downturn in China gathers speed. 

The 2004 forecast for the OECD region is unchanged and GDP is expected to grow by 3.5%. The forecast for theUSA is lower at 4.5% and the Japanese forecast is now 4.0%, an increase of 0.2%. The forecast for the Euro-zone isunchanged at 1.8%. The forecasts for China and Russia are also held steady at 8.8% and 7% respectively. Theforecasts for Africa, Latin America, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countries as a whole are slightly higher.The GDP growth forecast for the world economy is unchanged at 4.8% for 2004. 

The forecasts for 2005 imply a return to more normal growth rates following the sharp economic recovery whichbegan in 2003. The OECD region is expected to grow by 3% in 2005 with the US economy achieving 3.7%. TheEuro-zone growth rate is forecast to increase to 2.2% in 2005 but the Japanese economy may slow, growing by only2% as exports may be limited by lower Chinese and American demand. Developing economies are also expected togrow more slowly in 2005. The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.3%, a lower rate than theestimate for 2004 but substantially above the twenty-year average of about 3.3%. 

Following the all time monthly high of $36.27/b registered for May, the OPEC Reference Basket fell in June by$1.66/b or 4.6%. Nevertheless, the June average of $34.61/b is the highest average for that month in the last22 years, while the year-to-date average for 2004 of $32.59/b exceeds the 2003 yearly average by almost 16%, or$4.48/b. In the first week of June, the Basket lost 21/b or 0.6% to average $36.49/b, followed by a morepronounced fall of $1.94/b or 5.3% to $34.55/b in the second week. The pace of the fall decelerated by the thirdweek but the Basket still shed another 30/b or 0.9% to average $34.25/b. By the end of June, the Basket began toshow some signs of recovery, gaining back most of the previous week’s loss to average $34.54/b. Then it retrenchedby $1.28/b to average $33.26/b in the week ending 1 July. That was more than offset by the strong gain of more than$2.5/b in the week ending 15 July when the Basket averaged $35.88/b. 

Concerns about a sustained gasoline shortage in the USA, which have driven the upward trend in petroleumproducts over the last few months, have eased recently resulting in a significant gasoline price fall in June 2004.This shift has made market players more bearish and led them to liquidate long positions. Following thesedevelopments, product prices fell across the board in June, matching the downward trend in crude prices andreducing refinery margins in all major markets. However, in early July market sentiment changed due to a smalldraw on gasoline stocks, improving crude and product prices. 

Increased OPEC oil production in June 2004 was not reflected in estimated OPEC area spot fixtures which have showna drop of 2.78 mb/d to 13.14 mb/d. OPEC’s share of global spot-chartering declined by about 2% to stand at 63%, anincrease of 14% from a year ago. The unexpected decline in global spot fixtures did little to constrain crude oil freightrates in June which sustained the previous month’s gains on the back of tight tonnage availability and high tankerdemand. The product tanker moved differently from the crude oil market as the performance on some routes did notsatisfy owners. With a projected 4.8% world economic expansion for the current year, total oil demand is now estimated to grow by2.1 mb/d or 2.67% to average 80.9 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 0.2 mb/d with respect to the figurepresented in the previous MOMR. A preliminary forecast for world oil demand of 1.67 mb/d to 82.56 mb/d in theyear 2005 has been drawn on the basis of a world economic expansion of 4.3%, a return to normal weatherconditions, and robust yet more moderate consumption growth in China and USA. This preliminary assessment isindeed subject to further adjustment as new information becomes available on key factors such as the economicgrowth outlook, weather conditions, unforeseen social and geopolitical events and variations in crude and productprices.

OPEC crude oil production in June, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.92 mb/d, 0.71 mb/d above therevised May figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 50.02 mb/d, which is 1.36 mb/d higher than the48.66 mb/d estimated 2003 figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 51.21 mb/d, an increase of1.19 mb/d over the 2004 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.46 mb/drespectively and are expected to rise to 7.38 mb/d and 7.88 mb/d in 2004 and 2005 respectively. 

US commercial onland stocks continued to increase adding 22.8 mb to reach 966.4 mb at a rate of 0.8 mb/d during theperiod 28 May-2 July 2004. In the week ending 9 July, US commercial stocks rose slightly 0.4 mb to 966.8 mb, liftingthe y-o-y surplus to 16 mb or 1.7%. Total oil stocks in Europe reversed the upward trend observed over the last twomonths falling 8.6 mb to 1,066.9 mb at a rate of 0.3 mb/d. At the end of May, commercial oil stocks in Japanreversed the downward trend observed last month, increasing seasonally by 8.1 mb to 168.4 mb at a rate of 0.3 mb/d. 

Although preliminary stock data for some OECD countries show a further increase in 2Q 2004, the current balanceindicates 2.9 mb/d supply in excess of demand, which still leaves a significant amount unaccounted for. This couldbe attributed to stock data from non-OECD countries that may also have increased, as well as oil-on-water, whichhad already shown a build at the end of May. Underreported and/or unreported demand might also have contributedto this discrepancy.