原油價格變動9月份，歐佩克原油參考價格籃子小幅下滑至42.89美元/桶，下跌21美元。ICE布倫特原油價格上漲8美元，至47.24美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價格上漲43美元，至45.23美元/桶。原油價格受到解決全球供應(yīng)過剩問題的努力和連續(xù)抽走因努斯原油庫存的支撐。布倫特WTI價差收窄至2.01美元/桶。2016年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率保持不變，為2.9%，2017年為3.1%。OECD2016年和2017年的增長預(yù)測分別保持在1.6%和1.7%。對中國和印度的預(yù)測也保持不變，2016年為6.5%和7.5%，2017年為6.1%和7.2%。巴西和俄羅斯預(yù)計2017年將分別增長0.4%和0.7%，今年將分別收縮3.4%和0.6%。2016年世界石油需求量預(yù)計將增長124萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均9440萬桶/日，較9月份MOMR的平均增長約10 tb/日，主要是為了反映最新數(shù)據(jù)。積極修正主要是由于其他亞洲地區(qū)的需求高于預(yù)期，而向下修正則是由于經(jīng)合組織美國的業(yè)績低于預(yù)期。2017年，世界石油需求預(yù)計將增加115萬桶/日，與9月MOMR相比不變，達(dá)到平均9556萬桶/日。繼9月MOMR下調(diào)至平均5630萬桶/日約70噸/日后，2016年世界石油供應(yīng)國歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將減少0.68萬桶/日。這主要是由于基線修正。2017年，非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)量略微增加了40 tb/d，增長了24 mb/d，達(dá)到平均56.54 mb/d，主要原因是新項目在俄羅斯投產(chǎn)。預(yù)計2017年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量平均為643萬桶/日，比今年增加15萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量在9月份增加了22萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均33.39萬桶/日。大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)由于美國的利潤率下降，受到美國汽油需求季節(jié)性放緩的影響，隨著駕駛季節(jié)的結(jié)束，產(chǎn)品市場表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。在歐洲，利潤率受到出口機(jī)會增加以及流入放緩的支撐，這緩解了該地區(qū)的汽油供應(yīng)過剩。與此同時，亞洲利潤率在秋季煉油廠維護(hù)季節(jié)開始之際，由于區(qū)域需求強(qiáng)勁而有所增強(qiáng)。受活動增強(qiáng)的支持，9月份油輪市場臟船現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價較上月平均上漲。市場人氣走強(qiáng)的主要原因是蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的高運(yùn)費(fèi)，而超大型油輪的平均運(yùn)費(fèi)保持穩(wěn)定。9月份，迅速的更換和活動增加支撐了運(yùn)費(fèi)。然而，由于今年全球船舶供應(yīng)量大幅增長，高船舶供應(yīng)量繼續(xù)打壓市場。在清潔油輪市場，蘇伊士以東和以西的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價仍面臨下跌壓力。8月份，商業(yè)庫存總量下降至3094百萬桶，比最新的五年平均水平高出322百萬桶。原油和產(chǎn)品庫存分別出現(xiàn)19100萬桶和13100萬桶的盈余。在遠(yuǎn)期保護(hù)期內(nèi)，8月份經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫存為66.7天，比季節(jié)平均水平高出約6.7天。預(yù)計2016年歐佩克原油供需平衡為3180萬桶/日，比去年增加180萬桶/多佛。2017年，預(yù)計歐佩克原油需求為3260萬桶/日，比今年增加80萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket slipped slightly in September to $42.89/b, down 21.ICE Brent ended up 8 at $47.24/b and NYMEX WTI increased 43 to $45.23/b. Crude oilprices were supported by efforts to address excess global supplies and consecutive draws inUS crude stockpiles. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $2.01/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth remains unchanged at 2.9% for 2016 and 3.1% for 2017. The OECDgrowth forecast remains at 1.6% and 1.7% for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Forecasts for Chinaand India are also unchanged at 6.5% and 7.5% for 2016 and 6.1% and 7.2% for 2017. Braziland Russia are forecast to grow by 0.4% and 0.7% in 2017, following contractions of 3.4% and0.6% this year.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2016 is seen increasing by 1.24 mb/d to average 94.40 mb/d, after amarginal upward revision of around 10 tb/d from the September MOMR, mainly to reflectthe latest data. Positive revisions were primarily a result of higher-than-expected demand in theOther Asia region, while downward revisions were a result of lower-than-expected performancefrom OECD America. In 2017, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, unchangedfrom the September MOMR, to average 95.56 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.68 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of around 70 tb/d from the September MOMR to average 56.30 mb/d. This is mainly dueto base line revisions. In 2017, non-OPEC supply was revised up slightly by 40 tb/d to showgrowth of 0.24 mb/d to average 56.54 mb/d, mainly due to new projects coming on stream inRussia. OPEC NGLs are expected to average 6.43 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.15 mb/d overthe current year. OPEC crude production, according to secondary sources, increased by0.22 mb/d in September to average 33.39 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin experienced a mixed performance as margins fell in theUS, hit by a seasonal slowing in gasoline demand in the US as the driving season ended. InEurope, margins were supported by higher export opportunities along with slowing inflows,which eased the gasoil oversupply in the region. Meanwhile, Asian margins strengthened on theback of stronger regional demand amid the onset of the autumn refinery maintenance season.Tanker MarketDirty vessel spot freight rates increased on average in September compared to the previousmonth, supported by enhanced activity. The stronger sentiment was mainly driven by higherfreight rates for Suezmax and Aframax, while average VLCC freight rates remained stable.Prompt replacements and increased activity supported freight rates in September. However,high vessel availability continued to weigh on the market amid considerable growth in the globalfleet this year. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure withdeclines in both East and West of Suez.Stock MovementsOECD total commercial stocks fell in August to stand at 3,094 mb, some 322 mb above thelatest five-year average. Crude and product inventories showed surpluses of 191 mb and131 mb, respectively. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks in August stood at66.7 days, some 6.7 days higher than the seasonal average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.8 mb/d, an increase of 1.8 mb/dover last year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.6 mb/d, a rise of 0.8 mb/d overthe current year.