世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要增長(zhǎng)引擎仍然是美國(guó)和中國(guó)。3月美國(guó)貿(mào)易業(yè)績(jī)改善，第一季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期可能提高至3.5%左右，零售額的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)預(yù)示著第二季度的良好開(kāi)端。中國(guó)的第一季度數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，GDP增長(zhǎng)繼續(xù)保持在9.5%，與2004年相比沒(méi)有減速。

歐元區(qū)第一季度數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期，因?yàn)镚DP增長(zhǎng)了2%。德國(guó)是出口強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。第二季度的前景不容樂(lè)觀，尤其是制造業(yè)。該地區(qū)仍依賴(lài)出口需求，消費(fèi)信心仍因失業(yè)率居高不下而受到抑制。日本的前景喜憂(yōu)參半。更高的實(shí)際收入水平應(yīng)該會(huì)促進(jìn)第一季度的消費(fèi)支出，但出口表現(xiàn)不佳。

美國(guó)對(duì)2005年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)不變，為3.4%，日本的預(yù)測(cè)也不變，為1.4%。歐元區(qū)預(yù)測(cè)從1.3%下調(diào)至1.1%。中國(guó)2005年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)期已提高到8.6%。2005年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)率保持在4.1%不變。

今年4月，歐佩克的一籃子參考原油價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了四個(gè)月來(lái)的最低漲幅，較上個(gè)月上漲56%或1%，收于49.63美元/桶。該籃子原油價(jià)格錄得本月第一周的最高周平均水平，為52.07美元/桶，部分原因是受投資銀行關(guān)于油價(jià)可能翻番的報(bào)告影響，以及對(duì)美國(guó)夏季駕車(chē)季前下游產(chǎn)能限制的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。不過(guò)，本月其余時(shí)間，由于歐佩克供應(yīng)充足，美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存持續(xù)增加，油價(jià)總體呈下降趨勢(shì)，第三周周周平均跌幅低至48.00美元/桶。這一趨勢(shì)在5月份繼續(xù)，5月16日，日籃子價(jià)格堅(jiān)定地向45美元/桶移動(dòng)，至45.47美元/桶。

大西洋盆地的煉油廠停產(chǎn)和亞洲旺盛的需求增強(qiáng)了4月份產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的人氣，全球煉油廠利潤(rùn)率飆升。然而，最近，美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存居高不下、美國(guó)煉油廠春季檢修后恢復(fù)正常運(yùn)營(yíng)以及東南亞國(guó)家產(chǎn)品需求下降，這些因素共同扭轉(zhuǎn)了市場(chǎng)勢(shì)頭，并緩解了產(chǎn)品價(jià)格。美國(guó)煉油廠向汽油生產(chǎn)模式的轉(zhuǎn)變將進(jìn)一步增加駕駛季節(jié)的汽油庫(kù)存，這可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步減緩清潔產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格。盡管如此，考慮到有限的備用煉油能力和可能發(fā)生的煉油中斷，價(jià)格大幅下滑的可能性似乎不大。

盡管產(chǎn)量持續(xù)高企，但由于主要消費(fèi)國(guó)的季節(jié)性需求減弱，歐佩克4月份的現(xiàn)貨租船量?jī)H小幅增長(zhǎng)了10萬(wàn)桶/日，至1420萬(wàn)桶/日。來(lái)自歐佩克地區(qū)的航運(yùn)量下降了80萬(wàn)桶/日，至2270萬(wàn)桶/日，中東地區(qū)的航運(yùn)量下降了50萬(wàn)桶/日。由于最近油輪船隊(duì)的擴(kuò)張，供應(yīng)充足，原油運(yùn)價(jià)全線下跌，跌幅在11%至26%之間。亞洲煉油廠維修對(duì)運(yùn)價(jià)造成進(jìn)一步下行壓力。產(chǎn)品運(yùn)價(jià)也有所下降，但低于原油運(yùn)價(jià)，下滑幅度在3%至11%之間。

2005年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率較上個(gè)月下降0.08百萬(wàn)桶/日，降至182百萬(wàn)桶/日或2.2%，低于2004年的260百萬(wàn)桶/日或3.3%，總平均值為8390百萬(wàn)桶/日。這次下調(diào)主要是由于第一季度的消費(fèi)低于預(yù)期。歐洲和中國(guó)的需求下調(diào)幅度超過(guò)了其他亞洲和金融服務(wù)業(yè)的上調(diào)幅度，導(dǎo)致累計(jì)下降26萬(wàn)桶/日。

2005年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5060萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加了80萬(wàn)桶/日，因?yàn)楣?yīng)量的增長(zhǎng)比上個(gè)月的估計(jì)減少了19萬(wàn)桶/日。根據(jù)第一季度的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)，俄羅斯和墨西哥的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)有所下降，這一預(yù)測(cè)低于預(yù)期。更重要的是，這兩個(gè)國(guó)家的前景在今年剩下的時(shí)間里都有所下調(diào)。其他非歐佩克成員國(guó)，特別是安哥拉、阿塞拜疆、巴西和蘇丹的前景依然強(qiáng)勁，與上個(gè)月的評(píng)估相比又有所增強(qiáng)。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士透露，4月份歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均2995萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月增加27.4萬(wàn)桶/日，伊拉克產(chǎn)量略有增加。

截至2005年第一季度末，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存為25.87億桶，比上一季度增加2200萬(wàn)桶，比去年同期增加11900萬(wàn)桶。來(lái)自美國(guó)的初步數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)了這一趨勢(shì)，華碩商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存在4月1日至29日期間顯著增加1630萬(wàn)桶或0.58萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到97220萬(wàn)桶。16歐元區(qū)（歐盟加挪威）的石油庫(kù)存總量在4月份出現(xiàn)溫和下降，下降810萬(wàn)桶或0.27萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到109990萬(wàn)桶。

2005年的供需平衡顯示，目前世界石油需求平均為8390萬(wàn)桶/日，而非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)（包括歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油）平均為5480萬(wàn)桶/日。這導(dǎo)致歐佩克石油生產(chǎn)的平均差額（a-b）為2920萬(wàn)桶/日，與上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)值2910萬(wàn)桶/天相比。新的平衡主要是對(duì)世界石油需求下調(diào)了10萬(wàn)桶/日，同時(shí)對(duì)非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)下調(diào)了19萬(wàn)桶/日。

  The main growth engines of the world economy remain the USA and China. Improved US trade results for Marchindicate that the first quarter GDP growth estimate may be increased to about 3.5% and the strong growth of retail sales inApril indicates a solid start to the second quarter. First quarter data for China confirms that GDP growth continued at9.5%, showing no deceleration from 2004.

  First quarter data from the Euro-zone was better than expected as GDP grew by 2%. Germany was the leading economythanks to strong growth in exports. The outlook for the second quarter is less encouraging, especially for manufacturingsectors. The region remains dependent on export demand and consumer confidence remains depressed by high levels ofunemployment. The outlook for Japan is mixed. Higher levels of real income should boost consumer spending in the firstquarter but the performance of exports has been poor. 

The US growth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at 3.4% and the Japanese forecast is also unchanged at 1.4%. The forecastfor the Euro-zone has been reduced to 1.1% from 1.3%. The 2005 growth rate forecast for China has been increased to8.6%. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1%. 

The OPEC Reference Basket in April saw the lowest rise in four months on a gain of 56 or 1% from the previous monthto close at $49.63/b. The Basket recorded the highest weekly average in the first week of the month at $52.07/b partly inreaction to an investment bank report on the possibility of oil prices doubling, as well as concern over downstreamcapacity constraints ahead of the US summer driving season. However, the rest of the month saw a general downwardtrend on the back of ample OPEC supplies and a continued build in US crude oil inventories, with the weekly averagedipping as low as $48.00/b in the third week. This trend continued in May, with the daily Basket price moving firmlytowards $45/b to stand at $45.47/b on 16 May. 

Refinery outages in the Atlantic Basin and robust demand in Asia strengthened sentiment in the product markets in April,and refinery margins surged across the globe. However, more recently, a combination of high US gasoline stocks, theresumption of normal operations by US refiners after spring maintenance and lower product demand from South-EastAsian countries reversed market momentum and eased product prices. The switch in US refinery operations to gasolineproducingmode should further build gasoline inventories for the driving season, which could additionally moderateprices for clean products. Still, a sharp price slide seems unlikely given limited spare refining capacity and possiblerefinery outages. 

Despite sustained high production, OPEC spot chartering rose only slightly in April by 0.1 mb/d to 14.2 mb/d due tolower seasonal demand in the main consuming countries. Sailings from the OPEC area fell by 0.8 mb/d to 22.7 mb/d,with the Middle East contributing 0.5 mb/d. Crude oil freight rates declined along all routes, losing between 11% and26%, on ample availability due to the recent expansion in tanker fleets. Asian refinery maintenance exerted furtherdownward pressure on freight rates. Product freight rates also declined, but less than for crude, slipping between 3%and 11%. 

World oil demand growth for 2005 was revised down by 0.08 mb/d from the previous month to stand at 1.82 mb/d or 2.2%,lower than the 2.60 mb/d or 3.3% experienced in 2004, for a total average of 83.9 mb/d. This downward revision is mainlyattributed to lower than anticipated consumption in the first quarter. The downward revision in European demand as well asthat for China surpassed the upward revision in Other Asia and FSU, leading to a cumulative decline of 0.26 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC supply is now expected to average 50.6 mb/d in 2005, which represents an increase of 0.8 mb/d from theprevious year, as supply growth has been revised down by 0.19 mb/d from the previous month’s estimate. The forecast forRussian and Mexican output growth has been lowered on the basis of actual data for the first quarter, which was less thanexpected. More importantly the outlook for both countries has been revised down for the remainder of the year. The outlookfor other non-OPEC countries, particularly Angola, Azerbaijan, Brazil and Sudan, continues to be strong and remainsunchanged from last month’s assessment. According to secondary sources, total OPEC crude production averaged29.95 mb/d in April, an increase of 274,000 b/d from the previous month, with a moderate increase in Iraqi production. 

At the end of the first quarter of 2005, OECD commercial oil stocks stood at 2,587 mb, an increase of 22 mb over theprevious quarter and 119 mb higher than the same period last year. Preliminary data from the USA confirms this trend, asUS commercial oil stocks observed a significant build of 16.3 mb or 0.58 mb/d to stand at 972.2 mb in the period 1-29 April.Total oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) experienced a moderate draw in April, falling by 8.1 mb or 0.27 mb/d to standat 1,099.9 mb. 

The supply/demand balance for 2005 shows that world oil demand is now expected to average 83.9 mb/d, whilst nonOPECsupply (including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils) is expected to average 54.8 mb/d. This results in anaverage difference (a-b) of 29.2 mb/d for OPEC production, versus the previous expectation of 29.1 mb/d in last month’sreport. The new balance is primarily the result of a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to world oil demand, coupled with adownward revision to non-OPEC supply of 0.19 mb/d.