據(jù)估計(jì)，2003年世界國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長了3.7%，比上個(gè)月的估計(jì)增長了0.1%。這一小幅增長是由于日本的估計(jì)數(shù)大幅上調(diào)，德國和意大利的估計(jì)數(shù)略有下調(diào)。日本2003年第四季度的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，投資支出和出口增長強(qiáng)勁，個(gè)人消費(fèi)也大幅增長，保持了2003年早些時(shí)候的增長。

美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要問題仍然是就業(yè)增長，以及政策制定者為推動(dòng)勞動(dòng)力市場而留下的財(cái)政彈藥所剩無幾。2月份非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)僅增加2.1萬人，沒有特殊因素可以解釋這一結(jié)果。2月份零售額（不包括汽車）持平，首次顯示消費(fèi)者信心疲弱。今年1月，美國貿(mào)易逆差進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，達(dá)到431億美元。

經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)2004年的預(yù)測增長了0.1%，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)增長了3.2%。此次修正完全是由于日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期從1.8%上調(diào)至2.6%。對(duì)中國的預(yù)測不變，為8.3%。對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的需求正以更快的速度增長，但通脹上升和產(chǎn)能短缺可能在2004年晚些時(shí)候引發(fā)問題。這一預(yù)測假定中國的增長率在下半年將放緩。對(duì)非洲、拉丁美洲、亞洲（不包括日本）和發(fā)展中國家整體的預(yù)測基本不變。據(jù)預(yù)測，2004年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長4.4%，比上個(gè)月的預(yù)測高出0.1%。

繼2003年第四季度初開始并延續(xù)至今年1月的4美元/桶復(fù)蘇之后，theOPEC參考籃子最終失去了一些陣地。今年2月，該籃子原油價(jià)格下跌77美元/桶或2.54%，至29.56美元/桶的平均水平。今年迄今，該籃子原油的平均價(jià)格僅比2月底的30美元/桶（29.94美元/桶）低了幾美分/桶，與2003年同期相比，2003年3月19日，由于預(yù)計(jì)伊拉克入侵，原油價(jià)格飆升，每桶原油價(jià)格正好下跌了1美元/桶。3月初，每周籃子平均價(jià)格又上漲了4%或1.26美元，至31.87美元，隨后在截至3月11日的一周內(nèi)，又上漲了38美元，至32.25美元。近期原油價(jià)格走強(qiáng)主要取決于非商業(yè)廣告、地緣政治擔(dān)憂以及美國汽油市場明顯收緊的態(tài)勢。

除大西洋盆地市場的汽油外，2月份世界三大煉油中心的平均產(chǎn)品價(jià)格都有所下降。然而，煉油利潤率在健康水平上趨同，主要是受美國和歐洲市場汽油價(jià)格下跌的推動(dòng)，盡管最近馬約拉西亞產(chǎn)品價(jià)格大幅下跌。

隨著原油運(yùn)價(jià)南下和成品油運(yùn)價(jià)飆升，2月份油輪市場呈現(xiàn)出不同的趨勢。多數(shù)原油油輪板塊失去了上個(gè)月的勢頭，特別是蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的跌幅尤為顯著。大多數(shù)主要產(chǎn)品航線的噸位供應(yīng)緊張是產(chǎn)品運(yùn)價(jià)上升趨勢背后的主要原因。歐佩克地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月的35%下降了10%，原因是石油產(chǎn)量略有下降，煉油廠維修導(dǎo)致需求疲軟。

2003年世界石油需求估計(jì)數(shù)經(jīng)修正后下降了21萬桶/日，為78.30萬桶/日，比2002年增加了129萬桶/日。這主要是由于四季度實(shí)際歷史表觀需求下調(diào)所致。2004年世界石油需求預(yù)測下調(diào)0.08億桶/日至7975億桶/日，增量增長下調(diào)0.13億桶/日或145億桶/日，原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長上調(diào)。另一個(gè)區(qū)域組的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)增長0.57百萬桶/日，其次是發(fā)展中國家（0.51百萬桶/日）和經(jīng)合組織（OECD）集團(tuán)（0.37百萬桶/日）。

根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克2月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為2814萬桶/日，與1月份的數(shù)字幾乎沒有變化。2003年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量估計(jì)為4866萬桶/日，比2002年的4776萬桶/日高出90萬桶/日。2004年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到5001萬桶/日，比2003年的估計(jì)增加135萬桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的凈出口量估計(jì)分別為556萬桶/日和655萬桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)2004年將增至720萬桶/日。

2004年1月30日至2月28日期間，美國僅限商業(yè)的庫存繼續(xù)顯示出可觀的季節(jié)性下降，即1390萬桶，每日下降0.46萬桶至89660萬桶，盡管同比順差仍保持在3520萬桶或4.1%的舒適水平。美國3月12日最新的每周庫存數(shù)據(jù)顯示，原油庫存進(jìn)一步增加，而接近去年水平的汽油庫存應(yīng)在駕駛季節(jié)到來之前穩(wěn)步增加。歐盟16國（歐盟加挪威）的石油庫存總量扭轉(zhuǎn)了上個(gè)月的趨勢，減少了1110萬桶，或0.38萬桶/天，至1060.9萬桶，原因是大量使用中間餾分油。盡管如此，同比順差仍保持在4400萬桶或4.3%。日本商業(yè)地產(chǎn)總庫存扭轉(zhuǎn)了上月下降的格局，下降340萬桶，至1793萬桶，下降了11萬桶，但同比順差仍保持在1370萬桶或8.3%的舒適水平

World GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% in 2003, a rise of 0.1% above last month’s estimate. This slightincrease is due to a significant upwards revision of estimates for Japan and slight downwards revisions for Germanyand Italy. The Japanese data for the final quarter of 2003 showed strong growth in investment spending and exports.Personal consumption also experienced significant growth, maintaining the improvements recorded earlier in 2003. 

The major problem in the US economy remains employment growth and the fact that policymakers have littlemonetary or fiscal ammunition left to boost the labour market. The increase in non-farm payrolls in February wasonly 21,000 and there were no special factors to explain such a result. Retail sales (excluding automobiles) were flatin February providing the first indication of weakness in consumer confidence. The US trade deficit widened furtherin January, reaching $43.1 billion.

  The 2004 forecast for the OECD region was increased by 0.1% and GDP is expected to grow by 3.2%. This revisionis entirely due to an upwards adjustment of the Japanese growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.6%. The forecast for Chinais unchanged at 8.3%. Demands on the Chinese economy are growing at a faster rate but rising inflation and shortageof capacity may raise problems later in 2004. This forecast assumes that the rate of growth of China will slow in thesecond half of the year. The forecasts for Africa, Latin America, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countriesas a whole are largely unchanged. The world economy is forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2004, which is 0.1% higherthan last month’s forecast. 

Following the $4/b recovery that started early in the fourth quarter of 2003 and extended to January of this year, theOPEC Reference Basket finally lost some ground. In February the Basket dropped 77/b or 2.54% to average$29.56/b. The year-to-date average, which stood a few cents-per-barrel below the $30/b mark ($29.94/b) at the endof February, was exactly $1/b lower when compared to the same period of 2003 when prices shot upwards on19 March 2003 in anticipation of the invasion of Iraq. In early March, the weekly Basket average soared by another4% or $1.26/b to $31.87/b, followed by another 38/b rise to $32.25/b in the week ending 11 March. The recentstrength in crude oil prices rests mainly on the position of non-commercials, geopolitical concerns and a perceivedtightening in the US gasoline market. 

With the exception of gasoline in the Atlantic basin markets, average product prices fell in February in all threemain world refining centres. Refining margins, however, converged at healthy levels, driven largely by theprevailing strength in gasoline prices in the US and European markets, and despite recent sharp falls in majorAsian product prices. 

The tanker market displayed divergent trends in February, as crude oil freight rates headed south and product freightrates soared skywards. Most of the crude oil tanker sector lost the previous month’s momentum, especially Suezmaxand Aframax where losses were remarkable. Tight tonnage availability on most main product routes was the mainreason behind the upward trend in product freight rates. OPEC area spot fixtures gave up 10% from last month’sgain of 35% on the back of slightly lower oil production and weak demand due to refinery maintenance. 

The world oil demand estimate for 2003 has been revised down by 0.21 mb/d to stand at 78.30 mb/d, an increase of1.29 mb/d from 2002. This is mainly due to the downward revision in the actual historical apparent demand in the FSUin the fourth quarter. The world oil demand forecast for 2004 has been adjusted downward by 0.08 mb/d to 79.75 mb/d,while incremental growth has been revised up by 0.13 mb/d or 1.45 mb/d due to the upward revision in the economicgrowth. The volume growth in the Other Region group is forecast at 0.57 mb/d, followed by Developing Countrieswith 0.51 mb/d and the OECD group with 0.37 mb/d. 

OPEC crude oil production in February, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.14 mb/d, almost unchangedfrom the January figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is estimated at 48.66 mb/d, which is 0.90 mb/d over the47.76 mb/d estimated for 2002. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 50.01 mb/d, an increase of 1.35 mb/dover the 2003 estimate. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.55 mb/d respectivelyand are expected to rise to 7.20 mb/d in 2004. 

US commercial onland stocks continued to show a considerable seasonal draw of 13.9 mb at a rate of 0.46 mb/d to896.6 mb during the period 30 January–28 February 2004, although the y-o-y surplus remained at a comfortable levelof 35.2 mb or 4.1%. Latest US weekly stock data of 12 March shows a further build in crude oil inventories, whilegasoline stocks, which are close to last year’s level, should increase steadily ahead of the driving season. Total oilstocks in EU-16 (EU plus Norway) reversed the trend observed last month, decreasing by 11.1 mb or 0.38 mb/d to1,060.9 mb, due to a large draw on middle distillates. Despite this considerable draw, the y-o-y surplus remained at44.0 mb or 4.3%. Total commercial onland stocks in Japan reversed the previous month’s pattern decreasing by 3.4 mbor 0.11 mb to 179.3 mb, but the y-o-y surplus remained at a comfortable level of 13.7 mb or 8.3%