對全球經(jīng)濟復蘇的樂觀情緒和對石油需求的更高預期支撐了4月份的石油市場。歐佩克參考價格籃子在本月第二個交易日升至81美元/桶上方，為今年1月以來首次，隨后呈上升趨勢，月末升至84.13美元/桶，為2008年10月初以來的最高水平。按月度計算，該籃子平均價格為82.33美元/桶，漲幅為5.12美元或6.6%。由于擔心希臘主權(quán)債務(wù)危機蔓延風險和美國石油庫存高企，5月份石油市場轉(zhuǎn)為熊市。結(jié)果，價格在三天內(nèi)下跌超過10美元，隨后略有回升，5月10日升至78.08美元/桶。2010年世界經(jīng)濟增長率保持在3.5%不變。盡管美國、日本和中國顯示出令人鼓舞的復蘇跡象，但歐元區(qū)剛剛設(shè)法避免希臘的過度外債危機蔓延到其他經(jīng)濟體。經(jīng)合組織的增長率保持在1.9%不變，美國的預測從2.6%提高到2.8%，歐元區(qū)的預測從0.7%下調(diào)到0.6%。預計2010年中國經(jīng)濟增長9.5%，印度增長7.1%。全球經(jīng)濟正在改善，但發(fā)達國家主權(quán)債務(wù)的挑戰(zhàn)、中國避免經(jīng)濟過熱和失業(yè)率持續(xù)居高不下的能力需要仔細監(jiān)測。2009年世界石油需求預測基本保持不變，顯示出150萬桶/日的萎縮。2010年，全球需求增長預計為90萬桶/日，與上個月預測一致。盡管經(jīng)濟復蘇顯示出勢頭改善的跡象，但可能影響今年需求增長預期的重要風險依然存在。今年以來，中國一直是推動石油需求增長的主要動力之一，盡管最近汽油和柴油零售價格分別上漲了4.5%和5%，但今年的石油需求增長仍將持續(xù)到下半年。2009年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量估計增加了70萬桶/日，此前上調(diào)了100桶/日。2010年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量增長預測也上調(diào)了30桶/日，達到50萬桶/日。調(diào)整主要是因為發(fā)布了實際生產(chǎn)的最新初步數(shù)據(jù)。歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油2010年的平均產(chǎn)量預計為490萬桶/日，比上一年增加了50萬桶/日。4月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2925萬桶/日，比上月增加0.01萬桶/日。隨著經(jīng)濟增長的改善，產(chǎn)品需求的增加掩蓋了產(chǎn)品市場的其他負面發(fā)展，包括冰島火山爆發(fā)及其對航空業(yè)和噴氣/燃料需求的負面影響。這種情況也增強了產(chǎn)品市場人氣，提振了除歐洲以外的所有煉油廠的利潤率。盡管最近煉油廠的運營和利潤率有所改善，但由于持續(xù)的產(chǎn)品失衡和大量的輕產(chǎn)品庫存，燃油操作向下修正的風險非常高。因此，近期產(chǎn)品市場不太可能為原油市場基本面提供足夠的支持。與上月相比，歐佩克4月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降了16.7%。來自歐佩克維爾的航班略高，抵達美國的航班增長3.3%。4月份，油輪市場經(jīng)歷了混合運動，超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪的運價上升，而阿芙拉型油輪的運價下降。主要消費者的高進口支持了費率的提高，而噸位供應(yīng)影響了FRAMax行業(yè)。同期，清潔現(xiàn)貨運價下降了7.7%，主要是由于維護活動。4月份，美國商業(yè)庫存增長了2420萬桶，主要是由于新增產(chǎn)品增加了1950萬桶，而原油庫存則增加了470萬桶。目前庫存比5年平均水平高出約9000萬桶。日本3月份的商業(yè)石油庫存增加了400萬桶，扭轉(zhuǎn)了上個月的巨大下降趨勢，但仍低于歷史正常水平。據(jù)估計，2009年歐佩克原油需求量為2900萬桶/日，比上一份報告高出約20噸/日。與上一年相比，這仍然意味著每天減少240萬桶。2010年，預計歐佩克原油的平均需求量為2880萬桶/日，比之前的評估值高出約40 tb/日，比一年前下降約10萬桶/日。

Optimism about the global economic recovery and higher oil demand expectations supported the oilmarket in April. The OPEC Reference Basket moved above $81/b in the second trading day of themonth for the first time since January and then followed an upward trend to end the month to reach$84.13/b, the highest level since early October 2008. In monthly terms, the Basket averaged$82.33/b, for a gain of $5.12 or 6.6%. The oil market turned bearish in May amid concerns about thesovereign debt crisis in Greece with contagion risk and high oil inventories in the US. As a result,prices fell more than $10 over three days before recovering slightly to stand at $78.08/b on 10 May. World economic growth is kept unchanged at 3.5% for 2010. While the US, Japan and Chinashowed encouraging signs of a recovery, the Euro-zone has just managed to avoid a spillover of thesovereign debt crisis of Greece to other economies. OECD growth remains unchanged at 1.9%, asthe US forecast was increased to 2.8% from 2.6% and the Euro-zone’s forecast was revised downto 0.6% from 0.7%. China is expected to grow by 9.5% in 2010 and India by 7.1%. The globaleconomy is improving, but the challenges of sovereign debt in the developed countries, the ability ofChina to avoid overheating and persistently high unemployment levels need careful monitoring. World oil demand estimate for 2009 remains broadly unchanged, showing a contraction of1.5 mb/d. In 2010, global demand growth is expected at 0.9 mb/d, in line with the previous month’sforecast. Although the economic recovery shows signs of improving momentum, important risksremain that could impact demand growth expectations for this year. China has been among themain drivers behind oil demand growth so far this year, which should continue for the rest of the yeardespite the recent price increase in its gasoline and diesel retail sales by 4.5% and 5% respectively. Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have increased by 0.7 mb/d in 2009, following an upwardrevision of 100 tb/d. The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2010 was also revised 30 tb/dhigher to stand at 0.5 mb/d. The adjustment was mainly due to the release of preliminary up-to-datedata for actual production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 4.9 mb/din 2010, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous year. In April, total OPEC crude productionaveraged 29.25 mb/d, an increase of 0.01 mb/d over the previous month. Increased product demand in tandem with improving economic growth has overshadowed otherbearish developments in the product markets, including the volcano eruption in Iceland and itsnegative impacts on the aviation industry and jet/fuel demand. This situation has also reinforcedproduct market sentiment and lifted refining margins across the board, with the exception of Europe.Despite the recent improvement in refinery operations and margins, it appears that due to persistinginter-product imbalances and ample stocks of light products, the risk of a downward correction inrefinery operations is very high. As a result, product markets are not likely to provide sufficientsupport for crude market fundamentals in the near future. OPEC spot fixtures in April declined by 16.7% compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPECwere marginally higher and arrivals in the US gained 3.3%. In April, the tanker market experiencedmixed movement with VLCC and Suezmax rates increasing, while Aframax decreased. Higherimports by major consumers supported the increase in rates, while tonnage availability affected theAframax sector. Clean spot freight rates declined by 7.7% over the same period, mainly due tomaintenance activities.US commercial stocks rose by a considerable 24.2 mb in April driven by the build in productswhich increased by 19.5 mb, while crude stocks rose by 4.7 mb. Inventories now stand at around90 mb above the five-year average. Japan’s commercial oil stocks increased by 4.0 mb in March,reversing the huge decline observed last month, but still remained below the historical norm.Demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated at 29.0 mb/d, around 20 tb/d higher than in theprevious report. This still represents a decline of 2.4 mb/d compared to the previous year. In 2010,demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.8 mb/d, about 40 tb/d more than in the previousassessment and a decline of around 0.1 mb/d from a year ago.