原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)

今年5月，歐佩克參考籃子（ORB）較上月增長約8.5%，收于74.11美元/桶。今年5月迄今，ORB值較2017年同期增長31.7%，至67.48美元/桶。相比之下，布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲7.4%，迪拜原油期貨價(jià)格上漲8.7%，WTI現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格上漲5.4%，m-o-m原油期貨價(jià)格上漲。地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)升級(jí)和美國原油期貨價(jià)格看漲下跌繼續(xù)支撐著石油市場。然而，本月末，由于有關(guān)可能放松產(chǎn)出調(diào)整的傳言，價(jià)格下滑。原油期貨方面，ICE布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲5.24美元/桶，或7.3%，至77.01美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期貨價(jià)格上漲3.66美元，或5.5%，至平均69.98美元/桶，YT-d原油期貨價(jià)格上漲30.6%，至70.22美元/桶，而YMEX WTI原油期貨價(jià)格上漲27.7%，至65.09美元/桶，與去年同期相比。5月份，隨著美國供應(yīng)量的增加，洲際布倫特/紐約商品交易所價(jià)格價(jià)差擴(kuò)大了1.59美元，至7.02美元/桶。盡管原油期貨價(jià)格飆升，但投機(jī)性凈多頭頭寸收低。迪拜市場結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步向滯銷轉(zhuǎn)變，布倫特原油市場結(jié)構(gòu)明顯緩解，WTI保持不變。歐洲和亞洲的甜味/酸味差異縮小，而美國海灣沿岸的甜味/酸味差異擴(kuò)大。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

繼2017年增長3.8%后，2018年全球GDP增長預(yù)測(cè)仍為3.8%。預(yù)計(jì)2018年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率與上月持平，為2.7%，2017年增長2.3%。繼2017年增長1.7%后，2018年印度石油公司的增長率下調(diào)至1.2%。歐元區(qū)2018年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期仍為2.2%，2017年為2.5%。印度和中國的2018年預(yù)測(cè)均保持不變，分別為7.3%和6.5%，而2017年的GDP增長率分別為6.3%和6.9%。巴西在2017年增長1.0%之后，2018年的增長率修正為1.9%。繼2017年增長1.5%后，2018年俄羅斯國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長預(yù)期不變，為1.8%。

世界石油需求

2017年世界石油需求增長保持在165萬桶/日不變，達(dá)到9720萬桶/日，與上月報(bào)告持平。2018年，盡管經(jīng)合組織和非經(jīng)合組織都進(jìn)行了一些抵消性修訂，但預(yù)計(jì)石油需求增長也保持不變。目前，全球石油需求估計(jì)為165萬桶/日，平均為9885萬桶/日。繼經(jīng)合組織美洲地區(qū)的積極修訂后，預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織2018年的消費(fèi)量將增長40萬桶/日，比上一份報(bào)告高出約02萬桶/日。與此同時(shí)，非經(jīng)合組織的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長127萬桶/日，較上月的評(píng)估下降0.02萬桶/日。盡管中國和其他亞洲國家的石油需求被上調(diào)，但這一下調(diào)在拉丁美洲和中東地區(qū)的抵消作用還不止于此。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2017年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)同比增長88萬桶/日，由于四舍五入，較上月的評(píng)估略有上升0.01萬桶/日。2018年，非歐佩克國家的總供應(yīng)量增加了13萬桶/日，達(dá)到59.75萬桶/日，同比增長了186萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織（尤其是美國和加拿大）和經(jīng)合組織（OECD）、金融服務(wù)聯(lián)盟（FSU）和中國（中國）對(duì)2018年第一季度的供應(yīng)量進(jìn)行了上調(diào)，原因是產(chǎn)出高于預(yù)期。然而，這些向上的修正被向下的修正所抵消。歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體產(chǎn)量2017年調(diào)整為74 tb/d，目前同比增長0.09 mb/d，平均增長623 mb/d。預(yù)計(jì)2018年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體產(chǎn)量分別增長0.12 mb/d和平均635 mb/d。2018年5月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量增加35 tb/d，平均3187 mb/d，根據(jù)第二來源。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

5月份，大西洋盆地的成品油市場表現(xiàn)良好，全線上漲。在美國，國內(nèi)汽油需求改善，中間餾分油和燃料油市場相對(duì)收緊，推動(dòng)煉油廠利潤率超過去年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高位。在歐洲，產(chǎn)品市場保持了上個(gè)月取得的增長，大部分支撐來自桶頂和桶底。5月份創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高企產(chǎn)品價(jià)格打壓了煉油廠的利潤率，可能會(huì)阻止進(jìn)一步上漲。與此同時(shí)，受噴氣機(jī)/科羅塞內(nèi)德需求放緩和庫存水平上升的壓力，亞洲產(chǎn)品市場小幅走弱。

油輪市場

5月份，污油油輪市場出現(xiàn)了一些積極的發(fā)展，與上月相比，現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)大部分在多條航線上上漲。平均而言，臟油輪的運(yùn)費(fèi)上漲了18%，而清潔油輪的平均運(yùn)費(fèi)保持不變?，F(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的上漲是由于活動(dòng)的加強(qiáng)、噸位清單的收緊以及港口和天氣的延誤。然而，由于受到高燃料價(jià)格的壓力，市場回報(bào)率仍然較低，這兩個(gè)行業(yè)的稅率漲幅只是相對(duì)的。

股票變動(dòng)

4月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油庫存總量下降670萬桶，達(dá)到2811萬桶，比最近五年的平均水平低2600萬桶，但仍比2014年1月的水平高出2400萬桶。原油庫存顯示略有盈余，為40萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存則比最近五年的平均水平低2600萬桶。從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股4月份下跌至59.1天，比最新的5年平均水平低2.2天。

供需平衡

2017年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求量為3310萬桶/日，較上年同期增加70萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2018年歐佩克原油需求為3270萬桶/日，較上年下降30萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

In May, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by about 8.5% above the previous month, settling at$74.11/b. Year-to-date in May, the ORB value was 31.7% higher at $67.48/b, compared to the same periodin 2017. In comparison, Dated Brent rose by 7.4%, Dubai by 8.7% and spot WTI by 5.4%, m-o-m. The oilmarket continues to be underpinned by escalating geopolitical tensions and bullish drawdowns in US crudeinventories. However, late in the month, prices slipped on talk of a potential easing of output adjustments.With regard to crude oil futures, ICE Brent was $5.24/b, or 7.3%, higher at $77.01/b, while NYMEX WTIgained $3.66, or 5.5%, to average $69.98/b m-o-m. Y-t-d, ICE Brent is 30.6% higher at $70.22/b, whileNYMEX WTI rose 27.7% to $65.09/b, compared to the same period a year earlier. The ICE Brent/NYMEXWTI spread widened by $1.59 to $7.02/b in May, on increasing US supplies. Despite the surge in crude oilfutures prices, speculative net long positions ended lower. The Dubai market structure moved deeper intobackwardation, while that of Brent eased markedly and WTI remained unchanged. The sweet/sourdifferentials narrowed in Europe and Asia, while in the US Gulf Coast (USGC), the spread widened. 

World Economy

 The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018, following growth of 3.8% in 2017. Expected USgrowth in 2018 is unchanged from the previous month at 2.7%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth inJapan was revised down to 1.2% in 2018, following growth of 1.7% in 2017. The Euro-zone’s 2018 growthforecast remains at 2.2%, after growth of 2.5% in 2017. Both India’s and China’s 2018 forecasts areunchanged at 7.3% and 6.5%, following 2017 GDP growth of 6.3% and 6.9%, respectively. Growth in Brazilwas revised down to 1.9% in 2018, following growth of 1.0% in 2017. Russia’s GDP growth forecastremained unchanged at 1.8% in 2018, following growth of 1.5% in 2017.

World Oil Demand

 World oil demand growth in 2017 remained unchanged at 1.65 mb/d to stand at 97.20 mb/d, unchanged fromthe previous month’s report. In 2018, projected oil demand growth was also kept unchanged despite someoffsetting revisions in both OECD and non-OECD. Global oil demand is now estimated at 1.65 mb/d y-o-y toaverage 98.85 mb/d. OECD consumption is forecast to grow by 0.40 mb/d in 2018, some 0.02 mb/d higherthan in the previous report, following positive revisions in OECD Americas. Meanwhile, oil demand in thenon-OECD is now projected to grow by 1.27 mb/d, showing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from lastmonth’s assessment. While China’s and Other Asia’s oil demand was revised up, this was more than offsetby downward revisions in Latin America and the Middle East. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC supply growth in 2017 stands at 0.88 mb/d y-o-y, revised up marginally by 0.01 mb/d from lastmonth’s assessment due to rounding. For 2018, total non-OPEC supply was revised up by 0.13 mb/d, to59.75 mb/d, representing y-o-y growth of 1.86 mb/d. Upward revisions were made for 1Q18 in the OECD,particularly the US and Canada, and also in the forecast of 2Q18 in the OECD, FSU and China, due tohigher-than-expected output. However, these upward revisions were offset by downward revisions the samequarters. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids’ production was revised down by 74 tb/d for 2017 to nowshow growth of 0.09 mb/d y-o-y and average 6.23 mb/d. For 2018, OPEC NGLs and non-conventionalliquids are forecast to grow by 0.12 mb/d and average 6.35 mb/d. In May 2018, OPEC crude oil productionincreased by 35 tb/d, to average 31.87 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin showed positive performances in May with gains all across the barrel.In the US, improved domestic gasoline demand, along with a relatively tighter middle distillates and fuel oilmarket, drove refinery margins beyond last year’s record-high figures. In Europe, product markets retainedthe gains achieved in the previous month with most of the support stemming from the top and bottom of thebarrel. Record-high product prices witnessed in May weighed on refinery margins and probably preventedfurther upside. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia weakened marginally, pressured by slower jet/kerosenedemand and rising inventory levels.

Tanker Market 

In May, the dirty tanker market showed some positive developments with spot freight rates mostly gainingacross number of routes compared with the previous month. On average, dirty tanker freight rates rose by18% m-o-m while average clean spot freight rates remained flat. The increase in spot rates came on theback of enhanced activities, tightening of the tonnage lists as well as port and weather delays. However, rategains in both sectors were only relative, as market returns remain low, pressured by high bunker prices.

 Stock Movements 

Preliminary data for April shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 6.7 mb m-o-m to stand at2,811 mb, which is 26 mb below the latest five-year average, but remain 240 mb above January 2014 levels.Crude stocks indicated a slight surplus of 0.4 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 26 mb belowthe latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in April to standat 59.1 days, which is 2.2 days lower than the latest five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is estimated to stand at 33.1 mb/d, which is 0.7 mb/d higher than a yearearlier. In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.7 mb/d, a decline of 0.3 mb/d from the previousyear’s level.