石油市場亮點(diǎn)

原油價(jià)格變動

今年6月，歐佩克一籃子參考原油價(jià)格下跌8.1%，至45.21美元/桶。今年迄今，歐佩克一籃子參考原油價(jià)格上漲38.3%，至50.21美元/桶。原油期貨在熊市中暴跌。ICE布倫特原油價(jià)格下跌7.5%，至47.55美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價(jià)格下跌6.9%，至45.20美元/桶，市場擔(dān)心全球供應(yīng)量上升。今年迄今，ICE布倫特和紐約商品交易所WTI價(jià)格分別上漲28%和26%。洲際交易所布倫特商品交易所（ICE）與紐約商品交易所（NYMEX）的WTI價(jià)差收窄至2.36美元/桶?；鸾?jīng)理在6月份開始了新一輪的賣空，這加大了價(jià)格下行的壓力。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

據(jù)預(yù)測，2018年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率為3.4%，與2017年的增長率相同。這反映了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的持續(xù)加強(qiáng)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇正在變得更加平衡，而石油市場的穩(wěn)定仍然是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的決定因素。預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織2018年的增長率略低于2017年的2.0%，為1.9%。預(yù)計(jì)印度2018年將增長7.5%，而2017年為7.0%。據(jù)預(yù)測，巴西和俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇率將分別擴(kuò)大至1.5%和1.4%，而2017年分別為0.5%和1.2%。中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將繼續(xù)小幅下降，但2018年仍將保持6.2%的可觀增長，而2017年為6.6%。

世界石油需求

預(yù)計(jì)2017年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長約為127萬桶/日，與上月基本持平，平均為9640萬桶/日。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度和中國的需求依然強(qiáng)勁，反映了前者的健康制造業(yè)和道路建設(shè)活動，而后者的運(yùn)輸和工業(yè)部門的需求不斷上升。2018年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長126萬桶/日，略低于今年的增長，達(dá)到平均9760萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)增長20萬桶/日，而非經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)增長107萬桶/日。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2017年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)增長略低于80萬桶/日，平均為5782萬桶/日。下一次調(diào)整主要是由于預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織在2017年下半年的石油供應(yīng)減少。2018，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長1.14 Mb/d，平均為58.96 Mb/d。預(yù)計(jì)美國、巴西、加拿大、俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦、剛果和英國將成為增長的主要驅(qū)動力，而墨西哥、中國、哥倫比亞和阿塞拜疆則預(yù)計(jì)下降。預(yù)計(jì)2018年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量將增長18萬桶/日，平均增長649萬桶/日，部分原因是赤道幾內(nèi)亞加入歐佩克。二級消息來源顯示，今年6月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量增加393 tb/d，平均為3261 mb/d。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

美國煉油廠利潤率在6月份進(jìn)一步下降，因?yàn)楸M管夏季駕駛季節(jié)已經(jīng)結(jié)束，但美國汽油裂縫蔓延率有所下降。高庫存水平加劇了桶中部的疲軟，超過了汽油裂縫的增長。與此同時(shí)，在歐洲和亞洲，由于更多的出口機(jī)會超過了充足的供應(yīng)，healthydemand的利潤率小幅上升。

油輪市場

臟油輪的即期運(yùn)價(jià)在6月份普遍疲軟。超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)下跌6%，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)跌幅更大，分別較5月份下跌20%。油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)的下降是由于噸位供應(yīng)量的增加，因?yàn)槭袌霾粔蚧钴S，無法消化運(yùn)力的擴(kuò)張。同樣，清潔油輪的市場情緒在6月份的平均水平上也沒有改善。

股票變動

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）5月份商業(yè)石油庫存總量下降至301500萬桶。在這一水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出2.34億桶。原油和成品油庫存分別比季節(jié)性正常水平高出約148MB和860MB。從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，5月份oecd商業(yè)類股為63.5天，比最近5年的平均水平高出約3.6天。

供需平衡

據(jù)估計(jì)，2017年歐佩克原油需求為3230萬桶/日，比2016年增加了30萬桶/日。2018年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)為3220萬桶/日，比今年減少約10萬桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket declined 8.1% in June to $45.21/b. Year-to-date, the ORB value was 38.3%higher at $50.21/b. Crude futures tumbled in a bear market. ICE Brent settled down 7.5% to $47.55/b andNYMEX WTI dropped 6.9% to $45.20/b, on concerns about rising global supply. Year-to-date, ICE Brent andNYMEX WTI prices were 28% and 26% higher, respectively. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI spread narrowedto $2.36/b. Money managers embarked on a new cycle of short-selling in June, which added to thedownward pressure on prices. 

World Economy

 World economic growth in 2018 is forecast at 3.4%, the same level of growth forecast for 2017. This reflectsa continued strengthening of the global recovery which is becoming more balanced, with stability in the oilmarket remaining a key determinant. OECD growth is forecast at a slightly lower level of 1.9% in 2018,compared to 2.0% in 2017. India is forecast to grow by 7.5% in 2018, compared to 7.0% in 2017. Brazil andRussia are both forecast to expand their recovery to 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively, compared to 0.5% and1.2% in 2017. China will continue to grow at a slightly lower, but still considerable 6.2% in 2018, compared to6.6% in 2017. 

World Oil Demand 

Global growth in 2017 is expected to be around 1.27 mb/d, broadly unchanged from previous month, toaverage 96.4 mb/d. The latest data shows demand in India and China have remained robust, reflectinghealthy manufacturing and road construction activities in the former, and rising demand in the transportationand industrial sectors in the latter. For 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.26 mb/d, slightlybelow the current year’s growth, to average 97.6 mb/d. The OECD is expected to see growth of 0.20 mb/d,while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.07 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply

 Non-OPEC oil supply growth was revised marginally lower to 0.80 mb/d in 2017, averaging 57.82 mb/d. Thedownward revision was mainly driven by expected lower OECD oil supply in 2H17. For 2018, non-OPEC oilsupply is expected to grow by 1.14 mb/d to average 58.96 mb/d. US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan,Congo and the UK are expected to be the main drivers of growth, while declines are foreseen in Mexico,China, Colombia and Azerbaijan. OPEC NGLs production in 2018 is expected to grow by a higher 0.18 mb/dto average 6.49 mb/d, partly due to Equatorial Guinea joining OPEC. In June, OPEC crude production roseby 393 tb/d to average 32.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Refinery margins in the US declined further in June, as the US gasoline crack spread dropped despite theonset of the summer driving season. High inventory levels added to the weakness in the middle of the barrel,outpacing increases in the gasoil cracks. Meanwhile, in Europe and Asia, margins inched up on healthydemand amid additional export opportunities outpacing plentiful supply. 

Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates were weak in general in June. VLCC freight rates declined 6%, while the dropin Suezmax and Aframax spot rates was greater, falling by 20% each, compared to May. The decline in dirtytanker spot freight rates came on the back of growing tonnage availability, as the market was not activeenough to absorb the expansion in capacity. Similarly, clean tanker sentiment showed no improvements onaverage in June. 

Stock Movements 

Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in May to stand at 3,015 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 234 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks indicate a surplus of around148 mb and 86 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 63.5 days in May, some 3.6 days higher than the latest five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.3 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.3 mb/d over the2016 level. In 2018, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.2 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d less than thisyear.