最近幾周，歐元區(qū)前景的惡化占據(jù)了經(jīng)濟(jì)頭條。意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，德國第二季度GDP可能下降。法國經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn)也有所惡化，只有佩恩繼續(xù)以令人滿意的速度增長。政治上的不確定性增加了這些經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，因為法國和荷蘭的選民都反對新的歐洲憲法。2005年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期從1.1%降至1%。

美國和中國的增長繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁。在美國，制造業(yè)正看到一些弱點(diǎn)，但消費(fèi)支出的穩(wěn)步增長正導(dǎo)致服務(wù)業(yè)的增長。2005年的增長預(yù)測不變，為3.4%。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)由出口和投資驅(qū)動，盡管增長速度可能會因投入成本上升而放緩。5月份，生產(chǎn)者價格上漲了近6%，當(dāng)局可能會采取進(jìn)一步措施來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。中國2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期保持在8.6%不變。

日本公布強(qiáng)勁的第一季度數(shù)據(jù)，證實國內(nèi)需求已開始穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇。就業(yè)和國內(nèi)收入的好轉(zhuǎn)趨勢彌補(bǔ)了出口增長乏力。據(jù)預(yù)測，日本2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率為1.7%，高于此前的1.4%。預(yù)計2005年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將保持在4.1%不變，因為日本的良好前景有望彌補(bǔ)歐洲的疲軟。

5月份，歐佩克參考價格指數(shù)暴跌2.67美元或5.4%，收于46.96美元/桶，原因是陡峭的期貨市場和歐佩克原油價格支持強(qiáng)勁的庫存建設(shè)，有助于緩解供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂。然而，在五家歐洲煉油廠罷工后，由于對產(chǎn)品的擔(dān)憂，金價在本月底再度上揚(yáng)。上升趨勢一直持續(xù)到6月，因為美國的蒸餾庫存水平引發(fā)了進(jìn)一步的產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂，而美國颶風(fēng)季節(jié)的提前開始也支持了這一擔(dān)憂。因此，6月的籃子價格自4月下旬以來首次超過50美元/桶的水平，在截至6月9日的一周內(nèi)平均為50.73美元，在6月15日繼續(xù)增加，達(dá)到52.26美元/桶。

4月初開始的季節(jié)性看漲走勢受到了不同市場（尤其是美國）汽油庫存高企、煉油廠從維修期恢復(fù)、產(chǎn)量增加以及汽油需求較去年前5個月放緩等因素的影響。因此，即使在駕駛季節(jié)開始之際，汽油產(chǎn)品也未能占據(jù)市場的季節(jié)性領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。與汽油市場的疲軟形成鮮明對比的是，蒸餾油市場看起來異常強(qiáng)勁。隨著美國煉油廠產(chǎn)量的增加和餾分油庫存的進(jìn)一步改善，這種情況可能在未來幾周內(nèi)發(fā)生變化，并緩解市場壓力。

今年5月，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨租船量下降了120萬桶/日，降幅為9%，至近1280萬桶/日，為近一年來的最低水平，其中中東地區(qū)的長途租船量下降了70萬桶/日。來自歐佩克地區(qū)的船運(yùn)量仍穩(wěn)定在2710萬桶/日，但較去年同期上升了430萬桶/日。原油運(yùn)價走勢喜憂參半，由于油輪供應(yīng)過剩，超大型油輪板塊達(dá)到19個月的WS70，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪運(yùn)價有所改善，除印尼/美國西海岸航線外，均高于去年。由于活動減少，產(chǎn)品運(yùn)費(fèi)連續(xù)第二個月下降。

隨著今年上半年接近尾聲，第一季度全球石油需求初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，農(nóng)業(yè)年環(huán)比增長近2.5%，預(yù)計世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率為4.1%，最新的全球石油需求預(yù)測顯示，增長率為2.2%或180萬桶/日，年平均增長率為8390萬桶/日。對上月增長率的下調(diào)是由于經(jīng)合組織兩個區(qū)域（北美和西歐）的預(yù)期增長略低，以及對拉丁美洲和拉丁美洲的預(yù)測下調(diào)所致中東。

2005年非歐佩克國家全年供應(yīng)展望與上月報告持平。預(yù)計非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)量平均為5060萬桶/日，比上一年增加了80萬桶/日。第二季度第一季度和前兩個月的實際數(shù)據(jù)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)合組織石油供應(yīng)量向下修正，而發(fā)展中國家向上修正部分抵消了這一修正。根據(jù)略低于預(yù)期的2005年第一季度和第二季度前兩個月的實際數(shù)據(jù)，俄羅斯石油生產(chǎn)的全年前景再次被下調(diào)；此外，由于5月份報告中討論的同樣原因，2005年下半年的前景看起來越來越消極。據(jù)第二位消息人士稱，5月份歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均略高于30MB/d

The deteriorating prospects for the Euro-zone dominated economic headlines in recent weeks. Italy is in recession andGermany may see a fall in GDP in the second quarter. The performance of the French economy has also worsened and onlySpain continues to grow at satisfactory rates. Political uncertainty was added to these economic troubles as both the Frenchand Dutch electorates rejected the new European Constitution. The forecast for the Euro-zone growth in 2005 has beenreduced to 1% from 1.1%. 

Growth in the USA and China continues to be strong. Within the USA, the manufacturing sector is seeing some weaknessbut steady growth in consumer spending is leading to growth in services. The growth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at3.4%. The Chinese economy continues to be driven by exports and investment although the pace of growth may bemoderated by rising input costs. In May producer prices rose by nearly 6% and the authorities may take further measures tocool the economy. The 2005 growth forecast for China is unchanged at 8.6%.

  The release of strong first-quarter data for Japan confirmed that domestic demand has begun a solid recovery. Better trendsin employment and domestic incomes have compensated for weak growth in exports. Japan is forecast to grow by 1.7% in2005, up from the previous forecast of 1.4%. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1%as the better outlook for Japan is expected to compensate for weakness in Europe. 

The OPEC Reference Basket in May plunged $2.67 or 5.4% to close the month at $46.96/b as the steep contango market andample OPEC crude supported strong stock builds, helping to ease supply concerns. Bullishness revived toward the end of themonth, however, on product fears following a strike at five European refineries. The uptrend continued into June as distillatestock levels in the USA triggered further product supply worries which were supported by an early start to the hurricaneseason in the USA. As a result, the Basket in June rose above the $50/b level for the first time since late April, averaging$50.73 in the week ending 9 June and continued to increase reaching $52.26/b on 15 June. 

The seasonal bullish movement which began early in April has been undermined by a combination of high gasoline stocklevels in different markets, particularly in the USA, and the return of refineries from maintenance along with increasingoutput and slowing demand for gasoline compared with the first five months of last year. As a result, gasoline products havefailed to take the seasonal leadership of the market, even with the onset of the driving season. In sharp contrast to theweakness in gasoline, the distillate market looks surprisingly strong. With the increase of the US refinery output and furtherimprovement of the distillate stocks, this situation may change over the next weeks and ease the pressure on the market. 

OPEC spot chartering fell 1.2 mb/d or 9% to nearly 12.8 mb/d in May, the lowest level in almost a year, with Middle Easterneastbound long-haul fixtures declining by 0.7 mb/d. Sailings from the OPEC area remained stable at 27.1 mb/d, but were up4.3 mb/d from the same period last year. Crude oil freight rates showed mixed trends with the VLCC sector hitting 19-monthlows of WS70s due to a glut in tanker supply, while Suezmax and Aframax improved and were higher than last year, withthe exception of the Indonesia/US West Coast route. Product freight rates continued to decline for the second consecutivemonth due to a diminished activity. 

As we approach the end of the first half of the year, with preliminary global oil demand data for the first quarter pointing to agrowth of nearly 2.5 % y-o-y and a forecast world economic growth rate of 4.1 %, the latest global oil demand forecast callsfor a growth rate of 2.2 % or 1.8 mb/d to a yearly average of 83.9 mb/d. The downward revision to last month’s growthestimate results from slightly lower expected growth in two OECD regions — North America and Western Europe — aswell as downward revisions to projections for Latin America and the Middle East. 

The full year outlook for non-OPEC supply in 2005 remains unchanged from last month’s report. Non-OPEC supply isexpected to average 50.6 mb/d, which represents an increase of 0.8 mb/d over the previous year. Actual data for the first quarterand first two months of the second quarter have led to downward revisions to oil supply in OECD which have been partiallyoffset by upward revisions in Developing Countries. The full year outlook for Russian oil production has been revised downagain based on actual data for the first quarter and first two months of the second quarter of 2005 which came in slightly belowexpectations; in addition, the outlook for the second half of 2005 looks increasingly negative for the same reasons discussed inthe May report. Total OPEC crude output on average slightly exceeded 30.mb/d in May, according to secondary sources, whichrepresents an increase of 97,000 b/d from last month. Year-to-date OPEC production has increased 0.7 mb/d. 

At the end of April 2005, OECD commercial oil stocks rose 13.5 mb, lifting the y-o-y surplus to almost 100 mb. US data forMay showed a further build, increasing by 26.4 mb. Total commercial stocks are approaching the 1,000 mb mark, a total lastseen three years ago. Combined with the SPR close to 700 mb, total oil has never been higher at 1,700 mb. In Europe, totaloil stocks also experienced a build of 10.3 mb, mainly in crude oil inventories, to now stand at 26.3 mb or 2.4% above thesame time last year. However, Japan’s commercial oil stocks moved down by 6.1 mb at the end of April due to the decline incrude oil. This draw puts Japanese inventories slightly lower than the level observed last year at this time. 

World oil demand is expected to average 83.9 mb/d in 2005, whilst non-OPEC supply is expected to average 54.8 mb/d. Thisresults in an average difference (a-b) of 29.2 mb/d for OPEC production, versus a previous expectation of 29.1 mb/d in lastmonth’s report. However, the quarterly distribution has been revised. The demand required from OPEC in the first quarter ofthis year is expected to be 29.3 mb/d, 27.6 mb/d in the second, 29.1 mb/d in the third and 30.6 mb/d in the fourth.