石油輸出國組織（OPEC）9月份參考原油價(jià)格上漲1.15美元或1%，至110.67美元/桶。隨著亞洲原油價(jià)格上漲，參考原油價(jià)格漲跌互現(xiàn)，非洲原油價(jià)格下跌，但安哥拉的吉拉索爾原油除外。原油價(jià)格最初上漲，因預(yù)期歐洲央行（ecb）的債券購買計(jì)劃和美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)（fed）宣布第三輪不限成員名額的量化寬松政策，但隨后因?qū)θ蚪?jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求增長的擔(dān)憂加劇而回落。北海產(chǎn)量減少，加上地緣政治因素，也有助于提振油價(jià)。10月9日，歐佩克的一攬子計(jì)劃為109.46美元/桶。2012年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率從之前的3.3%下調(diào)至3.1%，反映出今年以來增長放緩。假設(shè)減速將在本季度見底，2013年的預(yù)測仍為3.2%。2012年和2013年，美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率仍低于2.2%和2.0%。日本越來越感到缺乏競爭力，2012年和2013年分別增長了2.2%和1.1%。與此同時(shí)，歐元區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)2013年將增長0.1%，今年則將收縮0.5%。出口導(dǎo)向型新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體普遍感受到欠發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的疲軟，預(yù)計(jì)2012年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長7.6%，來年將增長8.0%。印度預(yù)計(jì)今年和2013年將分別增長5.7%和6.6%。2013年世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長80萬桶/日，與之前的預(yù)測持平，并與本年的增長保持一致，全球石油消費(fèi)項(xiàng)目繼續(xù)受到世界經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的不確定性的影響。工業(yè)生產(chǎn)放緩已大幅減少了美國和中國的全球石油需求，而冬季前景預(yù)示著未來幾個(gè)月的進(jìn)一步不確定性。由于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩，2013年預(yù)測的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要是下降的。非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)在2012年將增加60萬桶/日，此前一個(gè)月下降了10萬桶/日，主要原因是巴西、哈薩克斯坦、中國、阿塞拜疆和英國的供應(yīng)低于預(yù)期。2013年，在美國、加拿大、巴西和哈薩克斯坦以及阿蘇丹和南蘇丹的預(yù)期增長的支持下，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長90萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2012年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將增加40萬桶/日，2013年將增加20萬桶/日。據(jù)二級(jí)消息來源顯示，9月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為310.8萬桶/日，較上月下降265噸/日。10月份，由于歐洲的維護(hù)措施，歐佩克的原油供應(yīng)緊張，成品油市場全線上漲。汽油繼續(xù)利用大西洋盆地的生產(chǎn)緊張，這有助于煉油廠利潤率繼續(xù)提高。相比之下，隨著供應(yīng)量的增加導(dǎo)致裂縫消退，亞洲產(chǎn)品市場有所緩和。在油輪市場上，超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)較上月有所改善，蘇伊士型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)則繼續(xù)下降。阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)結(jié)束了本月的持平，一些航次的日收益為零?？偟膩碚f，臟油輪市場繼續(xù)以充足的船舶供應(yīng)、有限的需求和最少的活動(dòng)為主。清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)漲跌互現(xiàn)，蘇伊士以東略有下降，而蘇伊士以西再次出現(xiàn)下降。歐佩克9月份現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量平均增長2.5%，至1081萬桶/日，而歐佩克的航運(yùn)量基本穩(wěn)定在2389萬桶/日。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，8月份，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油庫存總量大幅下降，低于5年平均水平4600萬桶。商業(yè)原油庫存顯示順差2630萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存顯示逆差7200萬桶。8月底，經(jīng)合組織（OECD）的商業(yè)股遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)約為58.4天，比五年期平均水平高出0.4天。最新信息顯示，9月份美國商業(yè)石油庫存總量增加970萬桶，顯示盈余2860萬桶，為五年平均水平，比一年前增加1650萬桶。原油和成品油的需求都對石油產(chǎn)量起到了推動(dòng)作用，分別增加了760萬桶和210萬桶。今年對歐佩克原油的需求從之前的評(píng)估增加了20萬桶/日，達(dá)到3010萬桶/日，比去年下降了10萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2013年，歐佩克原油需求平均為2980萬桶/日，較上年下降30萬桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告上調(diào)20萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket rose $1.15 or 1% in September to $110.67/b. Basket componentswere mixed, as Asian-destined crude improved, while African grades declined with the exception ofAngola’s Girassol. Crude oil prices initially rose in anticipation of the European Central Bank's bondbuyingprogramme and the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a third, open-ended round ofquantitative easing, but then fell back on increasing concerns about the global economy and oildemand growth. Reduced North Sea output, along with geopolitical factors, has also helped to lift oilprices. The OPEC Basket stood at $109.46/b on 9 October. World economic growth in 2012 was revised down to 3.1% from 3.3% previously, reflectingslowing growth since the start of this year. Assuming the deceleration will bottom out in thecurrent quarter, the forecast for 2013 has been left at 3.2%. The US expansion remains belowpotential at 2.2% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013. Japan is increasingly feeling the weakness inexports and is seen expanding by 2.2% in 2012 and 1.1% in 2013. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone isexpected to grow at 0.1% in 2013, following a contraction of 0.5% this year. The weakness indeveloped economies has been widely felt in the export-oriented emerging market economies.China is now forecast to expand by 7.6% in 2012 and 8.0% in the coming year. India is forecastto grow by 5.7% this year and 6.6% in 2013.World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the previous forecastand in line with the growth for the current year, which has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d. Theprojections for global oil consumption continue to be affected by the uncertainties facing the worldeconomy. Slower industrial production has sharply reduced global oil demand in both the US andChina, and the winter outlook represents further uncertainties in the coming months. Risks to theforecast for 2013 are primarily on the downside, due to the turbulence in the world economy.Non-OPEC oil supply is now forecast to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2012, following a downwardrevision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, due mainly to lower-than-expected supply from Brazil,Kazakhstan, China, Azerbaijan, and the UK. In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by0.9 mb/d, supported by anticipated growth in the US, Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, as well asSudan and South Sudan. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to increase by0.4 mb/d in 2012, and 0.2 mb/d in 2013. In September, total OPEC crude production averaged31.08 mb/d, according to secondary sources, representing a drop of 265 tb/d from the previousmonth.Product markets experienced an uptick across the barrel in October, on the back of tighteningsentiment fuelled by maintenance in Europe. Gasoline continued to take advantage of the producttightness in the Atlantic Basin, which helped refinery margins to continue to improve. In contrast,Asia’s product market eased as increasing supplies caused cracks to retreat. In the tanker market, VLCC spot freight rates saw modest improvements on all reported routes overthe previous month, while Suezmax rates continued to decline. Aframax freight rates ended themonth flat, with daily earnings reaching zero for some voyages. In general, the dirty tanker marketcontinued to be dominated by ample vessel supply, limited demand, and minimal activities. Cleantanker freight rates were mixed, with a slightly decrease East of Suez, while West of Suez saw again. OPEC spot fixtures rose 2.5% in September to average 10.81mb/d, while OPEC sailings werealmost steady at 23.89 mb/d.Preliminary data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks dropped sharply in August tostand 46 mb below the five-year average. Commercial crude stocks showed a surplus of 26.3 mb,while product stocks indicated a deficit of 72 mb. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocksstood at around 58.4 days at the end of August, 0.4 days higher than the five-year average. Thelatest information shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by 9.7 mb in September, indicatinga surplus of 28.6 mb with the five-year average and 16.5 mb above a year ago. Both crude andproducts contributed to the build, increasing by 7.6 mb and 2.1 mb respectively.Demand for OPEC crude for this year has been revised up by 0.2 mb/d from the previousassessment to stand at 30.1 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to last year. In2013, demand for OPEC crude is forecast to average 29.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.3 mb/d from thecurrent year and representing an upward adjustment of 0.2 mb/d from the previous report.