油價(jià)上漲和燃油補(bǔ)貼減少已開(kāi)始影響一些亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體。2005年，臺(tái)灣、泰國(guó)、新加坡和菲律賓的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期下降了0.3%以上，韓國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期下降了0.2%。2006年的預(yù)測(cè)顯示，隨著2006年美國(guó)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，這一地區(qū)的出口將減少，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將進(jìn)一步放緩。2006年，亞太地區(qū)應(yīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)4.2%的增長(zhǎng)，略低于今年預(yù)期的4.4%，較2004年的6%大幅下降。

美國(guó)和中國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁。在美國(guó)，消費(fèi)者支出繼續(xù)有增無(wú)減，2005年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)不變，為3.4%。明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)將降至3%以下，因?yàn)楦叩睦士赡軙?huì)影響消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的支出。盡管人們擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱和過(guò)度投資，但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎沒(méi)有放緩的跡象。6月份出口增長(zhǎng)非常強(qiáng)勁，寬松的金融環(huán)境使投資增長(zhǎng)率居高不下。中國(guó)2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期保持在8.6%不變。由于預(yù)計(jì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)疲軟以及固定資產(chǎn)投資有所放緩，預(yù)計(jì)明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將下降8.2%。

第二季度數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，日本第一季度的復(fù)蘇在改善內(nèi)需方面有著堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2005年日本經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)1.6%，低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的1.7%。歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的預(yù)測(cè)沒(méi)有變化，預(yù)計(jì)2005年將增長(zhǎng)1%。盡管1.5%的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)率仍低于趨勢(shì)，但預(yù)計(jì)2006年會(huì)有所改善。2005年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)率保持在4.1%不變，盡管歐洲有所改善，但2006年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率可能略低于4.0%。這一下降反映了發(fā)展中世界所有區(qū)域，特別是非洲和亞洲的增長(zhǎng)率較低。更高的石油進(jìn)口賬單和大宗商品市場(chǎng)可能出現(xiàn)的下滑，可能會(huì)使發(fā)展中國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)率在2006年降至4.8%——雖然低于今年預(yù)期的5.2%，但這仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于20年平均約3.5%的增長(zhǎng)率。

今年6月，歐佩克通過(guò)了一個(gè)新的參考籃子，由11種代表成員國(guó)主要出口原油的原油組成，按產(chǎn)量和對(duì)主要市場(chǎng)的出口加權(quán)。根據(jù)舊籃子和新籃子的計(jì)算結(jié)果，6月份的月平均價(jià)格升至52.04美元/桶，較上月上漲5.08美元/桶或11%。由于擔(dān)心產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)可能不足以滿足今年下半年的需求，油價(jià)上漲，這種情緒只因意外的煉油廠停產(chǎn)而進(jìn)一步加劇。隨著颶風(fēng)季節(jié)的突然活躍啟動(dòng)擾亂了墨西哥灣的石油生產(chǎn)，并加劇了對(duì)產(chǎn)品和原油供應(yīng)短缺的擔(dān)憂，籃子在七月的頭幾周繼續(xù)上漲。

與上月相比，6月份原油價(jià)格的震蕩走勢(shì)超過(guò)了產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)，并削弱了全球糖醋基準(zhǔn)原油的煉油利潤(rùn)率。盡管利潤(rùn)率較低，但煉油廠利潤(rùn)率仍保持健康，特別是在最近美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸發(fā)生風(fēng)暴之后，這使得利潤(rùn)率能夠收回部分先前的損失。與此同時(shí)，颶風(fēng)季節(jié)的提前開(kāi)始已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移了市場(chǎng)對(duì)產(chǎn)品的關(guān)注，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月將出現(xiàn)短缺，從而推高了原油和產(chǎn)品價(jià)格。

歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨租船量躍升156萬(wàn)桶/日，至142.7萬(wàn)桶/日，扭轉(zhuǎn)了過(guò)去三個(gè)月的下降趨勢(shì)。中東以外的國(guó)家對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)了三分之二。來(lái)自歐佩克地區(qū)的航行量略微增加了10萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到2720萬(wàn)桶/日，與2004年6月的數(shù)據(jù)相比，增長(zhǎng)了360萬(wàn)桶/日。大多數(shù)行業(yè)的原油運(yùn)價(jià)持續(xù)走弱，特別是超大型油輪，由于噸位供應(yīng)不足，超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)跌至2003年底的WS50水平。蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)也有所下降，但印度尼西亞/美國(guó)西海岸航線和地中海地區(qū)除外。同樣，產(chǎn)品運(yùn)價(jià)連續(xù)第三個(gè)月下降，除地中海/西北歐航線外，幾乎沒(méi)有活動(dòng)。

由于一些地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)放緩，以及初步需求數(shù)據(jù)顯示，包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的一些主要消費(fèi)國(guó)上半年的消費(fèi)顯著下降，2005年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率較上一次報(bào)告下調(diào)了15萬(wàn)桶/日。特別是，在第二季度、第三季度和第四季度，需求的絕對(duì)水平在每季度下降了約300000桶/天。2005年全球需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加162萬(wàn)桶/日，同比增長(zhǎng)2%，達(dá)到8366萬(wàn)桶/日。

根據(jù)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)4%的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率和正常天氣條件，對(duì)2006年世界石油需求的初步預(yù)測(cè)顯示，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為8520萬(wàn)桶/日，這意味著比2005年總消費(fèi)量增加154萬(wàn)桶/日或1.85%。從區(qū)域來(lái)看，需求增長(zhǎng)的最大貢獻(xiàn)者預(yù)計(jì)將是發(fā)展中國(guó)家，其次是經(jīng)合組織和中國(guó)，預(yù)計(jì)分別增長(zhǎng)60萬(wàn)桶/日、50萬(wàn)桶/日和40萬(wàn)桶/日。

2005年非歐佩克成員國(guó)供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的估計(jì)數(shù)比上個(gè)月的報(bào)告略有下降。非經(jīng)營(yíng)性供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)比上年增加7700萬(wàn)桶/日，比上月的報(bào)告修訂了40000桶/日。俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的修正占了負(fù)面修正的大部分。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士稱，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為3010萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月增加9萬(wàn)桶/日。到目前為止，運(yùn)營(yíng)產(chǎn)量增加了100萬(wàn)桶/日。

2006年非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油平均產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)為5170萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加108萬(wàn)桶/日。2006年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)（包括加工收益、歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油）預(yù)計(jì)平均為5620萬(wàn)桶/日，比2005年增加140萬(wàn)桶/日。從區(qū)域來(lái)看，最大的貢獻(xiàn)者預(yù)計(jì)是非洲地區(qū)，其次是金融服務(wù)聯(lián)盟、拉丁美洲和北美（主要是加拿大），而經(jīng)合組織歐洲和太平洋地區(qū)以及中東地區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)凈下降。俄羅斯的凈貢獻(xiàn)預(yù)計(jì)僅為8萬(wàn)至10萬(wàn)桶/日，并被認(rèn)為是明年非歐佩克經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。就總體原油質(zhì)量而言，預(yù)計(jì)凈增加量將絕大多數(shù)為中等偏甜，而近年來(lái)增加量的主要是酸酐。

2005年6月，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存自2002年8月以來(lái)首次突破10億美元大關(guān)，達(dá)到10.155億美元，比上月高出2%，比去年同期高出約5%。其中三分之二來(lái)自蒸餾油庫(kù)存，除汽油庫(kù)存略有下降外，其他主要產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存貢獻(xiàn)不大。與上月相比，6月份16歐元（歐盟加挪威）的石油庫(kù)存總量幾乎保持不變，為111400萬(wàn)桶。盡管同比順差仍較上月的2%小幅上升了4%，但原油庫(kù)存的增加幾乎被產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存的邊際提取所抵消。5月份，日本的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量顯著增加，達(dá)到47萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到17410萬(wàn)桶。原油和產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存對(duì)這一增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)幾乎相等。上個(gè)月y-o-ydeficit轉(zhuǎn)為盈余約3%。

2005年的供需平衡在對(duì)世界石油需求的基礎(chǔ)和增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行向下修正之后進(jìn)行了重大修正。因此，預(yù)計(jì)2005年歐佩克原油（a-b）的需求量為2890萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月報(bào)告減少26萬(wàn)桶/日。歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量在今年第二季度平均為29.5 Mb/d，30MB／d，約為400000桶/日和2.7 Mb/d，比這兩個(gè)時(shí)期的歐佩克原油需求估計(jì)的還要多?？紤]到新的平衡、由此產(chǎn)生的對(duì)原油產(chǎn)量的需求以及預(yù)計(jì)的產(chǎn)能，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克的閑置產(chǎn)能在2005年下半年平均約為7.9%，而2004年同期為4.9%。2006年的需求預(yù)計(jì)為平均8520萬(wàn)桶/日，非歐佩克國(guó)家原油（包括歐佩克天然氣）總供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)為平均5620萬(wàn)桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油（a-b）需求為2900萬(wàn)桶/日，較2005年僅增加10萬(wàn)桶/日。就歐佩克產(chǎn)能而言，預(yù)計(jì)平均產(chǎn)能約為3340萬(wàn)桶/日，較2005年平均增長(zhǎng)71萬(wàn)桶/日。因此，考慮到2006年的供需平衡、由此產(chǎn)生的歐佩克原油減產(chǎn)水平和預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)能，估計(jì)歐佩克2006年的閑置產(chǎn)能平均約為12%。

Higher oil prices and lower fuel subsidies have begun to affect a number of Asian economies. The 2005 growth forecasts forTaiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines have been reduced by over 0.3% and the forecast for South Korea has beencut by 0.2%. The forecasts for 2006 suggest that growth will ease further as slower growth in the USA and China in 2006will reduce the exports of this region. In 2006 Asia Pacific should achieve growth of 4.2%, slightly lower than the 4.4%expected for this year which represents a sharp reduction on the 6% recorded in 2004.

  Growth in the USA and China continues to be strong. Within the USA, consumer spending continues unabated and the GDPgrowth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at 3.4%. Next year growth is expected to fall to below 3% as higher interest rates mayaffect consumer and business spending. Despite fears of overheating and overinvestment, there are few signs of a slowdownin the Chinese economy. Export growth was very strong in June and accommodative financial conditions have keptinvestment growth rates high. The 2005 growth forecast for China is unchanged at 8.6%. Lower growth of 8.2% is forecastfor next year as a result of anticipated weakness in the property market and some moderation in fixed investment. 

Second quarter data confirms that the Japanese recovery of the first quarter had a solid base in better domestic demand. Japan isforecast to grow by 1.6% in 2005, down from the previous forecast of 1.7%. There is no change to the forecast for the Eurozonewhich is expected to grow by 1% in 2005. An improvement is expected in 2006 although the forecast growth rate of 1.5%remains below trend. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 is unchanged at 4.1% and, despite theimprovement in Europe, world growth in 2006 may be slightly lower at 4.0%. This reduction reflects lower growth in allregions of the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia. The combination of higher oil import bills and the eventualdownturn in commodity markets may depress the growth rate of Developing Countries to 4.8% in 2006 – although down fromthe 5.2% expected this year, this would still represent growth well above the 20- year average of about 3.5%. 

A new OPEC Reference Basket was adopted in June, consisting of 11 crudes representing the main export crudes of theMember Countries weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. Based on a combination of the oldand new Basket calculations, the monthly average for June rose to $52.04/b, for a gain of $5.08/b or 11% over the previousmonth. Prices moved upward on concerns that product supplies might not be sufficient to meet demand in the latter part ofthis year, a sentiment that was only furthered by unexpected refinery outages. The Basket continued to move higher in thefirst weeks of July as an abrupt and active start to the hurricane season disrupted oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico andcompounded fears of a shortfall in product and crude supplies. 

The choppy ride in crude prices outpaced the performance of the product markets in June and undermined refinery marginsfor sweet and sour benchmark crudes across the world compared to the previous month. Although lower, refinery marginsstill remain healthy, especially in the wake of recent storms in the US Gulf Coast, which allowed margins to recover part oftheir earlier losses. Meanwhile, the early start of the hurricane season has shifted market attention to products and theexpectation of shortages in the coming months has lifted crude and product prices. 

OPEC spot chartering jumped 1.56 mb/d to 14.27 mb/d, reversing the downward trend of the last three months. OPECCountries outside the Middle East contributed two thirds of the growth. Sailings from the OPEC area increased slightly by0.1 mb/d to 27.2 mb/d, which corresponds to a growth of 3.6 mb/d over the June 2004 figures. Crude oil freight ratescontinued to weaken in most of the sectors, especially for VLCCs, where they plunged to late 2003 levels of WS50s due toplentiful tonnage availability. Suezmax and Aframax freight rates declined also except for the Indonesia/US West Coastroute and within the Mediterranean region. Similarly, product freight rates continued to fall for the third consecutive monthdue to little activity, with the exception of the Mediterranean/NW Europe route. 

World oil demand growth in 2005 has been revised down by 0.15 mb/d from the last report due to a slowdown in economicactivity in some regions and preliminary demand figures pointing to significantly lower consumption in the first half of theyear in some major consuming countries, including China. Particularly, the absolute level of demand has been revised downfor the second, third and fourth quarters by approximately 300,000 b/d in each quarter. Global demand growth for 2005 isnow projected to rise by 1.62 mb/d or 2% y-o-y to total 83.66 mb/d. 

The preliminary world oil demand forecast for 2006 — based on a GDP growth rate for the world economy of 4% andnormal weather conditions — shows that world oil demand is projected to average 85.2 mb/d, implying a rise of 1.54 mb/dor 1.85% over total 2005 consumption. On a regional basis, the largest contributor to demand growth is expected to be theDeveloping Countries followed by the OECD and China with an estimated growth of 0.6 mb/d, 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d,respectively. 

The estimate for non-OPEC supply growth in 2005 has been revised slightly down from last month’s report. Non-OPECsupply is expected increase 0.77 mb/d over the previous year, a revision of 40,000 b/d from last month’s report. Revisions inthe outlook for Russia account for the bulk of the negative revisions. Total OPEC crude production averaged 30.01 mb/d inJune, which represents an increase of 90,000 b/d from last month, according to secondary sources. Year-to-date OPECproduction has increased 1 mb/d.

Non-OPEC oil production in 2006 is expected to average 51.7 mb/d, an increase of 1.08 mb/d over the previous year. In2006, non-OPEC oil supply (including processing gains, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils) is expected to average56.2 mb/d, an increase of 1.4 mb/d versus 2005. On a regional basis, the largest contributor is expected to be the Africanregion, followed by the FSU, Latin America and North America (mainly Canada), whilst OECD Europe and Pacific, and theMiddle East are expected to show a net decline. The net contribution from Russia is expected to be just 80,000 to100,000 b/d, and is considered the main risk factor for non-OPEC growth next year. In terms of overall crude quality, the netincrease is expected to be overwhelmingly medium sweet, in contrast to recent years when increases have been mainlymedium sour. 

US commercial oil stocks in June 2005 exceeded the 1 bn mark for the first time since August 2002, standing at 1,015.5 mb or2% higher than last month and about 5% above last year’s level. Two thirds of this build came from distillate inventories, whileother major product stocks contributed marginally, except for gasoline inventories which showed a slight draw. Total oil stocksin Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) in June remained almost unchanged at 1,114.0 mb compared with the previous month. The buildin crude oil stocks was nearly cancelled out by marginal draws on product inventories, although the y-o-y surplus still rose aslight 4% from the 2% registered last month. Total commercial oil stocks in Japan during May witnessed a significant build of0.47 mb/d to stand at 174.1 mb. Crude oil and product inventories contributed nearly equally to this rise. The last month y-o-ydeficit turned to a surplus of about 3%.

  The supply/demand balance for 2005 has been revised significantly following downward revisions to the base and growthfor world oil demand. As a result, the estimated demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is now forecast at 28.9 mb/d, whichrepresents a reduction of 260,000 b/d versus last month’s report. OPEC crude production averaged 29.5 mb/d in the first and30 mb/d in the second quarter of this year, which is approximately 400,000 b/d and 2.7 mb/d respectively more than theestimated OPEC crude requirements for these two periods. Taking into account the new balance, the resulting requiredOPEC crude production levels and the projected production capacity, OPEC’s spare capacity is estimated to average around7.9% in the second half of 2005, compared to 4.9% in the same period of 2004. With demand in 2006 expected to average 85.2 mb/d and total non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs) expected toaverage 56.2 mb/d, the estimated demand for OPEC crude (a-b) is forecast at 29 mb/d, an increase of just 100,000 b/d versus2005. In terms of OPEC capacity, it is expected to average around 33.4 mb/d, representing an average increase of 710,000b/d from 2005. Therefore, taking into account the supply/demand balance for 2006, the resulting required OPEC crudeproduction levels and the projected production capacity, OPEC’s spare capacity in 2006 is estimated to average around 12%.