6月份，歐佩克的參考價(jià)格平均為101.03美元/桶，比上月增加38美元。今年上半年，該籃子平均價(jià)格為105.09美元/桶，下降了6.96美元。6月份，大部分組成價(jià)值都有所改善，特別是酸性品級(jí)，這得益于購買興趣的增加和煉油利潤率的提高。Nymex WTI從美國的積極經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中獲得了支持，由于洪水導(dǎo)致加拿大原油運(yùn)輸量減少，并且限制了油砂項(xiàng)目的原油產(chǎn)量。不過，本月晚些時(shí)候，原油期貨價(jià)格走弱，數(shù)據(jù)顯示中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)暗示可能開始控制量化寬松政策。

2013年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率已從3.2%下調(diào)至3.0%，主要受新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長放緩的推動(dòng)。2014年，經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)期反彈將導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長3.5%。2013年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率保持在1.8%，預(yù)計(jì)明年將增長2.5%。歐元區(qū)今年的增長率保持在負(fù)0.6%不變，但預(yù)計(jì)2014年將反彈至正0.6%。日本今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率已從1.5%上調(diào)至1.8%，但預(yù)計(jì)明年將放緩至1.4%。總投資減速和出口放緩繼續(xù)影響中國和印度。中國2013年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率已從7.9%下調(diào)至7.7%，預(yù)計(jì)2014年將保持同樣水平的增長。印度今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率已從6.0%降至5.6%，預(yù)計(jì)來年將增長6.0%。

2013年世界石油需求增長率目前約為80萬桶/日，此前略有下調(diào)。這主要是因?yàn)榘l(fā)布了2013年第一季度的最新實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)和2013年第二季度的初步數(shù)據(jù)。2014年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將以更高的速度增長，從100萬桶/日增長到平均9070萬桶/日。這意味著與本年度預(yù)測(cè)的增長相比，將增長約30萬桶/日。2014年，非經(jīng)合組織國家的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將以120萬桶/日的速度增長，而經(jīng)合組織的消費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)下降，但下降的速度較低，將減少20萬桶/日。全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長恢復(fù)速度是影響2014年世界石油需求預(yù)測(cè)的主要不確定因素之一。

在經(jīng)合組織（OECD）美洲、FSU和中國的預(yù)期增長的支持下，2013年非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加100萬桶/日。2014，非歐佩克供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長1.1Mb/d。預(yù)計(jì)美國、加拿大、巴西、蘇丹、哈薩克斯坦和澳大利亞將是供應(yīng)增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)者，而挪威、敘利亞、墨西哥和英國預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)最大跌幅。2014年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為60萬桶，比今年增加了10萬桶。據(jù)第二位消息人士透露，今年6月，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為3038萬桶/日，較上月下降了31萬桶/日。

6月份產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。大西洋盆地的原油桶頂疲軟，由于到目前為止的駕駛季節(jié)還沒有提供預(yù)期的強(qiáng)勁提振，需求下降導(dǎo)致汽油價(jià)格下跌。相比之下，中間餾分油在全球范圍內(nèi)走強(qiáng)，原因是在一些地區(qū)暫時(shí)收緊政策的情況下，需求略有回升，這使得這些中間餾分油在亞洲和歐洲得以復(fù)蘇。

6月份，超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)上漲，蘇伊士型油輪和法拉馬克斯型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下跌，油輪市場(chǎng)情緒喜憂參半。從中東到亞洲的船運(yùn)支持超大型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)，而美國海灣的低噸位需求和延誤影響了蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪市場(chǎng)。6月份的產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下降了10%，反映出活動(dòng)有限和噸位充足。6月份，歐佩克的航行量下降了0.7%。

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）5月份商業(yè)石油庫存總量連續(xù)第三個(gè)月增長1170萬桶，但與5年平均水平基本持平。原油庫存保持在一個(gè)令人滿意的水平，五年平均水平上的asurplus為1300萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存仍然緊張，顯示出1730萬桶的赤字。在遠(yuǎn)期保護(hù)期內(nèi)，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)庫存為58.9天，比五年平均水平高出1.2天。6月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國商業(yè)石油庫存總量增加了1420萬桶，比5年平均水平多出4820萬桶。截至6月底，美國原油庫存比5年平均水平高出3380萬桶，而成品油則顯示出1440萬桶的盈余。

據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，今年歐佩克原油需求平均為2990萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告基本持平，較2012年下降40萬桶/日。根據(jù)2014年對(duì)世界石油需求和非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)（包括歐佩克天然氣）的初步預(yù)測(cè)，明年歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到平均2960萬桶/日，降幅為30萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $101.03/b in June, representing an increase of 38 overthe previous month. In the first half of the year, the Basket averaged $105.09/b, a decline of $6.96.Most component values improved in June, particularly sour grades, which were supported byincreased buying interest and better refining margins. Nymex WTI found support from positiveeconomic data from the US, reduced Canadian crude shipments due to flooding, and restrictedcrude production from oil sand projects. However, later in the month, crude futures prices weakenedon data showing slowing economic growth in China and hints from the US Federal Reserve that itmay start reining in quantitative easing. 

World economic growth for 2013 has been revised down to 3.0% from 3.2%, driven mainly byslowing growth in emerging economies. In 2014, an expected rebound in the OECD economiesshould lead to global growth of 3.5%. US growth remains at 1.8% for 2013 and is forecast to grow by2.5% next year. Euro-zone’s growth remains unchanged at minus 0.6% for this year, but is expectedto rebound to plus 0.6% in 2014. Japan’s growth for the current year has been revised up to 1.8%from 1.5%, but is forecast to slow to 1.4% next year. Decelerating total investments and slowingexports continue to impact China and India. China’s growth in 2013 has been revised down to 7.7%from 7.9% and is forecast to grow at the same level in 2014. India’s growth this year has beenrevised down to 5.6% from 6.0%, and is expected to expand by 6.0% in the coming year.

 World oil demand growth for 2013 now stands at around 0.8 mb/d, following a marginal downwardrevision. This has been mainly due to the release of the latest actual data for 1Q13 and preliminarydata for 2Q13. In 2014, world oil demand is projected to grow at a higher rate of 1.0 mb/d to average90.7 mb/d. This represents an around 0.3 mb/d rise from the growth predicted for the current year. In2014, non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth with 1.2 mb/d, while OECDconsumption is seen continuing to decline but at a lower rate, contracting by 0.2 mb/d. The pace ofrecovery in growth in major economies around the globe is one of the main uncertainties affectingworld oil demand projections in 2014. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2013, supported by anticipated growthfrom OECD Americas, the FSU, and China. In 2014, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by1.1 mb/d. The US, Canada, Brazil, the Sudans, Kazakhstan, and Australia are expected to be themain contributors to the supply increase, while Norway, Syria, Mexico, and the UK are forecast tosee the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are seen averaging 6.0 mb/d in2014, indicating an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the current year. In June, according to secondarysources, OPEC production is estimated at 30.38 mb/d, a decline of 0.31 mb/d from a month earlier. 

Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in June. The top of the barrel weakened in theAtlantic Basin, with gasoline losing ground due to lower demand as the driving season has so far notprovided the strong boost expected. In contrast, middle distillates strengthened worldwide on theback of a slight recovery in demand amid temporary tightening in some regions, which allowed themargins to recover in Asia and Europe.

 Tanker market sentiment was mixed in June as VLCC freight rates increased, while Suezmax andAframax spot rates declined. Shipments from the Middle East to Asia supported VLCC rates whilelow tonnage requirements and delays in the US Gulf influenced the Suezmax and Aframax markets.Product spot freight rates in June fell 10%, reflecting limited activities and ample tonnage availability.OPEC sailing dropped by 0.7% in June. 

Total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 11.7 mb in May for the third consecutive month, butremain broadly in line with the five-year average. Crude stocks stood at a comfortable level, with asurplus of 13 mb over the five-year average, while product stocks remained tight showing a deficit of17.3 mb. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial inventories stood at 58.9 days, 1.2 days overthe five-year average. Preliminary data for June shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by14.2 mb, showing a surplus of 48.2 mb over the five-year average. US crude oil stocks at the end ofJune stood at 33.8 mb above the five-year average, while products showed a surplus of 14.4 mb. 

Demand for OPEC crude for this year is forecast to average 29.9 mb/d, almost unchanged from theprevious report and a decline of 0.4 mb/d from 2012. Based on the initial 2014 forecasts for world oildemand and non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs), demand for OPEC crude next year isprojected to average 29.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d.