石油市場(chǎng)亮點(diǎn)

5月份，歐佩克的參考籃子平均為100.65美元/桶，較上月略有下降40美元。今年迄今，籃子價(jià)值較去年同期下跌9.75美元或8.4%，至105.85美元/桶。籃子組件的表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。雖然中東現(xiàn)貨原油跌幅最大，但拉丁美洲的原油品位有所提高。紐約商品交易所（NymexWTI）和冰布倫特（ICE Brent）5月份價(jià)格走勢(shì)相反。美國輕質(zhì)原油期貨價(jià)格大幅上漲，原因是美國中西部庫存過剩，以及近期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示美國經(jīng)濟(jì)逐步好轉(zhuǎn)。相比之下，在原油供應(yīng)改善的情況下，洲際布倫特原油合約受到歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)前景持續(xù)疲弱以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力的影響。紐約商品交易所WTI指數(shù)本月上漲2.73美元，至平均94.80美元/桶，而ICE布倫特指數(shù)下跌15美元，至平均103.28美元/桶。

2013年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)計(jì)為3.2%，與上個(gè)月持平，不過個(gè)別預(yù)測(cè)有所修正。在持續(xù)的刺激措施下，日本的預(yù)測(cè)從1.1%上調(diào)至1.5%。歐元區(qū)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)仍在繼續(xù)，盡管預(yù)計(jì)今年晚些時(shí)候會(huì)出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，但目前預(yù)測(cè)歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)將進(jìn)一步萎縮0.6%。盡管美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣刺激存在調(diào)整的可能性，但美國住房市場(chǎng)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的復(fù)蘇是積極的，GDP增長率在2013時(shí)仍保持在1.8%。中國受到經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)減速的影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率從8.0%修正為7.9%，而印度的預(yù)測(cè)則保持在6.0%不變。雖然全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)最近開始放緩，但目前預(yù)計(jì)下半年將出現(xiàn)一些反彈。

2013年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長80萬桶/日，與去年的增長一致。盡管由于實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)，第一季度的預(yù)測(cè)值有所下調(diào)，但與上一份報(bào)告相比，該預(yù)測(cè)值仍保持不變。在非經(jīng)合組織國家，石油消費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)將增長120萬桶/日，略低于去年。中國將繼續(xù)以40萬桶/日的速度增長，中東將以30萬桶/日的速度增長，其他亞洲和拉丁美洲地區(qū)將分別以20萬桶/日的速度增長。相比之下，經(jīng)合組織的需求預(yù)計(jì)將萎縮40萬桶/日，盡管比2012年略有改善。

2013年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長100萬桶/日，與上次報(bào)告持平，美國的強(qiáng)勁預(yù)期增長為支撐。預(yù)計(jì)2012年非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)增長將達(dá)到50萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油在2013年的平均供應(yīng)量為590萬桶/日，比上一年增加了20萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，今年5月，歐佩克原油平均產(chǎn)量為357萬桶/日，比上月增加106噸/日。

5月份產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。桶頂小幅走強(qiáng)，汽油需求開始顯示出擺脫春季低迷的跡象。然而，由于蒸餾水需求仍然疲軟，頂部的改善不足以抵消桶中間的損失，從而阻止了煉油廠利潤率的任何上升?？偟膩碚f，夏季需求季節(jié)在大西洋兩岸都開始緩慢。

在油輪市場(chǎng)，5月份臟貨現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)漲跌互現(xiàn)。東部和西部目的地的超大型油輪平均運(yùn)價(jià)都有所上升，這主要是煉油廠維修結(jié)束的結(jié)果。與此同時(shí)，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的平均運(yùn)價(jià)較一個(gè)月前有所下降，蘇伊士以東和以西的清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)因噸位供應(yīng)量大而有所下降。5月份，歐佩克石油輸出國組織（OPECspot）的石油產(chǎn)量比上個(gè)月增長了10%，歐佩克的出海量增長了1.2%。

經(jīng)合組織4月份商業(yè)石油庫存總量連續(xù)第二個(gè)月增長，增長1920萬桶，但仍與5年平均水平大體持平。原油庫存保持在令人滿意的水平，比5年平均水平多出1800萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存仍然緊張，季節(jié)平均水平為1900萬桶。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)投資為59.1天，比五年平均水平高出約1.1天。5月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國商業(yè)石油庫存總量增加了1550萬桶，與五年平均水平相比，盈余為4500萬桶。美國原油商業(yè)庫存5月份結(jié)束時(shí)為3590萬桶，高于5年平均水平，而成品油則高出880萬桶。

2012年，歐佩克原油需求為3020萬桶/日，與之前的評(píng)估結(jié)果持平，與2011年的水平基本一致。預(yù)計(jì)2013年歐佩克原油需求為2980萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，比去年減少40萬桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $100.65/b in May, representing a slight decline of 40 fromthe previous month. Year-to-date, the Basket value declined $9.75 or 8.4% compared to the sameperiod last year to stand at $105.85/b. The performance of Basket components was mixed. Whilethe Middle Eastern spot-related crudes fell the most, the Latin American grades improved. NymexWTI and ICE Brent prices moved in opposite directions in May. US light crude futures rose sharplyon the easing overhang in inventories in the US Midwest, as well as recent macroeconomic datapointing to a gradual improvement in the US economy. In contrast, the ICE Brent contract wasaffected by the persistently weak economic outlook in Europe, as well as poor Chinese economicgrowth, amid improving crude oil supplies. Nymex WTI gained $2.73 to average $94.80/b for themonth, while ICE Brent slipped 15 to average $103.28/b.

 World economic growth is forecast at 3.2% for 2013, unchanged from the previous month,although with some revisions to the individual forecasts. Japan’s forecast has been revised higher to1.5% from 1.1% amid ongoing stimulus efforts. The Euro-zone’s challenges continue, with theforecast now showing a deeper contraction of 0.6%, although a recovery is expected for later in theyear. While the possibility of some adjustment in the Fed's monetary stimulus exists, the recovery inthe US housing and labour markets has been positive and GDP growth for 2013 remainsunchanged at 1.8%. China has been impacted by decelerating activity and growth has been revisedto 7.9% from 8.0%, while India’s forecast is unchanged at 6.0%. While the global economicmomentum has started slowing recently, some rebound is currently forecast for the second half ofthe year. 

World oil demand is expected to increase by 0.8 mb/d in 2013, in line with the growth seen lastyear. The forecast remains unchanged from the previous report, despite a downward revision to thefirst quarter due to actual data. In the non-OECD, oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 mb/d,slightly lower than last year. China is seen continuing to grow at 0.4 mb/d, the Middle East at0.3 mb/d, and Other Asia and Latin America regions at 0.2 mb/d each. In contrast, OECD demand isexpected to see a contraction of 0.4 mb/d, although a slight improvement over 2012. 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth is projected at 1.0 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the last report,supported by strong anticipated growth from the US. Estimated non-OPEC supply growth in 2012stands at 0.5 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to average 5.9 mb/d in2013, a gain of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged30.57 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 106 tb/d over last month. 

Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in May. The top of the barrel strengthened slightly,with gasoline demand beginning to show signs of snapping out of its spring slump. However, theimprovement in the top was not enough to offset losses at the middle of the barrel, as distillatedemand remained weak, thus preventing any upward movement in refinery margins. Overall, thesummer demand season has been off to a slow start on both sides of the Atlantic. 

In the tanker market, dirty spot freight rates were mixed in May. Average VLCC rates haveincreased for both eastern and western destinations, mainly as a result of the end of the refinerymaintenance. Meanwhile, average Suezmax and Aframax rates declined from a month earlier.Clean spot freight rates fell East and West of Suez on the back of high tonnage availability. OPECspot fixtures rose by 10% in May over the previous month and OPEC sailings were 1.2% higher.

 Total OECD commercial oil stocks rose for the second consecutive month in April, up 19.2 mb,but remained broadly in line with the five-year average. Crude stocks stood at a comfortable level,with a surplus of 18 mb over the five-year average, while product inventories remained tight with adeficit of 19.0 mb with the seasonal average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercialinventories stood at 59.1 days, some 1.1 days over the five-year average. Preliminary data for Mayshows that total US commercial oil stocks rose by 15.5 mb to show a surplus of 45.0 mb with thefive-year average. US crude oil commercial stocks finished May at 35.9 mb over the five-yearaverage, while products were 8.8 mb higher. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 stood at 30.2 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessmentand broadly in line with the 2011 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is forecast at 29.8 mb/d,unchanged from the previous report and 0.4 mb/d lower than last year.