原油價(jià)格走勢(shì)

歐佩克參考籃子在12月反彈2.70美元，收于$ 107.67 / b。按年計(jì)算，籃子價(jià)格在2013年平均約為$ 106 / b，與上一年相比下降約3.50美元。 2013年，WTI期貨上漲近4美元，至平均約98美元/桶，北海布倫特期貨下跌3美元，至約109美元/桶。總體而言，2013年原油市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)仍然很小。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

2013年和2014年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別維持在2.9％和3.5％。經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體正在復(fù)蘇，預(yù)計(jì)2014年將以1.9％的速度增長(zhǎng)，而2013年則為1.2％，與上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)持平。 2013年和2014年，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)均保持在7.8％不變，而印度的預(yù)測(cè)分別為4.7％和5.6％。

世界石油需求

將2013年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)上調(diào)70噸/天，至0.9 mb /天。經(jīng)合組織美洲和歐洲的向上修訂反映了最新數(shù)據(jù)。 2014年，預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度將達(dá)到約1.0 mb / d，與上月持平。

世界石油供應(yīng)

 2013年非歐佩克的石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)估計(jì)為1.2 mb / d，比上月的報(bào)告增加了50 tb / d。對(duì)本年度的預(yù)測(cè)也進(jìn)行了上調(diào)，上調(diào)70噸/天至1.3 mb /天。預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要來自美國(guó)，加拿大，巴西和蘇丹，而2014年挪威，英國(guó)和墨西哥則呈下降趨勢(shì)。預(yù)計(jì)2014年歐佩克NGLs將增加150噸/天。歐佩克2014年原油平均產(chǎn)量為29.44 mb / d。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士稱，12月下降了20噸/天。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)好壞參半，在石化需求增加的支撐下，石腦油的頂部繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)。但是，燃油損失遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了燃油損失，導(dǎo)致大西洋盆地的利潤(rùn)下降。在亞洲，由于季節(jié)性需求增加，煉廠利潤(rùn)率有所回升。

油輪市場(chǎng)

 由于市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)活躍，船舶供應(yīng)緊張和天氣延遲，12月臟污和清潔油輪夾具的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)均出現(xiàn)了大幅增長(zhǎng)。

股票走勢(shì)

在原油和產(chǎn)品均下跌的帶動(dòng)下，經(jīng)合組織11月份商業(yè)庫(kù)存下降。原油顯示出五年平均水平的盈余56 mb，而產(chǎn)品則顯示出87 mb的赤字。經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)庫(kù)存為58.1天。 12月的初步數(shù)據(jù)表明，原油和產(chǎn)品的美國(guó)商業(yè)庫(kù)存均出現(xiàn)季節(jié)性下降。

供需平衡

2013年和2014年對(duì)OPEC原油的需求保持不變。2013年所需的OPEC原油需求量估計(jì)為29.9 mb / d，比上一年減少0.5 mb / d。 2014年，歐佩克原油需求量預(yù)計(jì)為29.6 mb / d，比去年下降0.4 mb / d。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket rebounded by $2.70 in December to settle at $107.67/b.In annual terms, the Basket price averaged around $106/b in 2013, a decline of around$3.50 compared to the previous year. In 2013, WTI futures gained nearly $4 to averageabout $98/b and North Sea Brent futures fell $3 to average around $109/b. Overall,price volatility in crude markets remained low in 2013.

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains at 2.9% and 3.5% respectively.The OECD economies are recovering and are expected to grow in 2014 at 1.9%,compared to 1.2% in 2013, unchanged from previous month’s forecast. China’s growthremains unchanged at 7.8% for both 2013 and 2014, while India’s forecast remains at4.7% and 5.6%.

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand growth for 2013 was revised up by 70 tb/d to stand at 0.9 mb/d. Theupward revisions in OECD Americas and Europe reflect the most recent data. For2014, growth is expected to increase to around 1.0 mb/d, unchanged from the previousmonth.

World Oil Supply

 Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2013 is estimated at 1.2 mb/d, up by 50 tb/d from theprevious month’s report. The forecast for the current year was also revised higher, up70 tb/d to 1.3 mb/d. Growth is seen coming mainly from the US, Canada, Brazil and theSudans, while Norway, UK and Mexico are seen declining in 2014. OPEC NGLs areexpected to increase by 150 tb/d in 2014. OPEC crude production averaged29.44 mb/d in December, according to secondary sources, indicating a drop of 20 tb/d.

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets saw a mixed performance with the top of the barrel strengthening asnaphtha continues to be strong on the back of higher petrochemical demand. Howeverthis was outweighed by fuel oil losses, which caused margins to drop in the AtlanticBasin. In Asia, refinery margins showed some recovery on the back of strongerseasonal demand.

Tanker Market

 Spot freight rates saw a significant increase in December in both dirty and clean tankerfixtures, due to high market activities, tight vessel availability and weather delays. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial stocks fell in November driven by a decline in both crude andproducts. Crude showed a surplus of 56 mb over the five-year average, while productsindicated a deficit of 87 mb. OECD commercial stocks stood at 58.1 days of forwardcover. Preliminary data for December indicates a seasonal drop in US commercialstocks for both crude and products.

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude remains unchanged in 2013 and 2014. Required OPECcrude for 2013 is estimated at 29.9 mb/d, representing a decrease of 0.5 mb/d from theprevious year. In 2014, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 29.6 mb/d, a drop of0.4 mb/d from last year.