原油價格變動歐佩克4月參考價格籃子上漲12美元至104.27美元/桶，多數(shù)組成部分價格略有改善。原油價格的支撐因素包括更為堅挺的煉油利潤率、持續(xù)的供應中斷以及一些煉油廠的維修恢復。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI平均上漲1.53美元至102.03美元/桶，ICE布倫特原油價格上漲34美元至108.09美元/桶。布倫特WTI價差本月結(jié)束時平均約為6.05美元/桶，為2013年9月以來的最低點。2014年世界經(jīng)濟增長率保持在3.4%，2013年增長率為2.9%。歐洲經(jīng)合組織（ECD）的經(jīng)濟增長預測仍為2.0%，美國經(jīng)濟增長率下調(diào)，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長率小幅上升。中國和印度的經(jīng)濟增長率分別為7.5%和5.6%。2014年經(jīng)濟增長的主要推動力來自經(jīng)合組織（OECD）經(jīng)濟體，而新興市場正在放緩。隨著一些主要經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟體（主要是美國和日本）最近的疲軟，全球經(jīng)濟增長預測的風險目前略微偏向于下行。2014年，全球石油需求預計將增加114萬桶/日，達到9115萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平。幾乎一半的年度石油需求增長似乎來自中國和中東。2013年世界石油需求量預計為9001萬桶/日，較上年增長105萬桶/日。歐佩克2014年全球石油供應增長略為上升，至138萬桶/日。歐佩克2013年的估計也略為上升，至135萬桶/日。歐佩克2013年和2014年的NGL分別下降0.1萬桶/日，至566萬桶/日和581萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克4月份的原油產(chǎn)量平均為2959萬桶/日，增加了131噸/日。受石油桶頂部事態(tài)發(fā)展的推動，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務產(chǎn)品市場在4月份有所加強。美國強勁的汽油需求和出口美國的更多機會導致利潤率大幅回升。在亞洲，油價的上漲部分受到了油價持續(xù)走低的限制，4月份油輪市場運價下跌，臟油輪和清潔油輪均下跌。較低的年需求、煉油廠維護和節(jié)假日是導致現(xiàn)貨運價下降的主要因素。清潔油輪市場也受到類似因素的影響，蘇伊士以東市場下跌4.5%，蘇伊士以西市場下跌21.5%。3月份，商業(yè)股下跌，主要受原油價格上漲帶動。五年平均赤字為115MB，分為原油和產(chǎn)品兩部分。就遠期覆蓋率而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為56.8天，比五年平均水平低約0.2天。4月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國商業(yè)石油庫存猛增4710萬桶，但仍與5年平均水平持平。2013年和2014年，與上一份報告相比，歐佩克原油供需平衡需求量分別上升了10萬桶/日。2013年歐佩克原油需求為3010萬桶/日，較上年下降了040萬桶/日。預計2014年歐佩克原油需求為2980萬桶/日，較2013年下降40萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket in April increased 12 to $104.27/b, amid marginalimprovements in most component values. Crude prices were supported by firmer refiningmargins, ongoing supply outages, and the return of some refineries from maintenance. Onaverage, Nymex WTI gained $1.53 to $102.03/b and ICE Brent increased 34 to$108.09/b. The Brent-WTI spread ended the month with an average of around $6.05/b, thenarrowest since September 2013.World EconomyWorld economic growth in 2014 remains at 3.4%, following growth of 2.9% in 2013. TheOECD growth forecast remains at 2.0%, with the US revised down and the Euro-zoneslightly higher. China’s growth forecast remains at 7.5% and India’s at 5.6%. The main liftfor 2014 growth is seen coming from OECD economies, while emerging markets areslowing. With the most recent weakness in some major OECD economies – mainly the USand Japan – the risk to the global growth forecast is seen currently skewed slightly to thedownside.World Oil DemandGlobal oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 mb/d to reach 91.15 mb/d in 2014,unchanged from the previous report. Almost half of annual oil demand growth is seencoming from China and the Middle East. The estimate for world oil demand in 2013 wasunchanged at 90.01 mb/d, representing growth of 1.05 mb/d over the previous year.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC supply growth in 2014 was revised up marginally to stand at 1.38 mb/d. Theestimate for 2013 was also adjusted slightly higher to stand at 1.35 mb/d. OPEC NGLswere revised down by 0.1 mb/d for both 2013 and 2014 to stand at 5.66 mb/d and5.81 mb/d respectively. OPEC crude production, according to secondary sources,averaged 29.59 mb/d in April, representing an increase of 131 tb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in April, driven by developments at thetop of the barrel. Stronger gasoline demand in the US and higher export opportunities toSouth America led to a sharp recovery in margins. In Asia, the uptick was partially limitedby the continued weakness at the bottom of the barrel.Tanker MarketFreight rates declined in April, with both dirty and clean tankers losing ground. Lowertonnage demand, refinery maintenance and holidays were the main factors behind thedecline in spot freight rates. The clean tanker market was influenced by similar factors, withthe East of Suez market down 4.5% and the West of Suez declining 21.5%.Stock MovementsOECD commercial stocks declined in March, driven mainly by products as crude saw abuild. The deficit with the five-year average stood at 115 mb, split between crude andproducts. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 56.8 days, around0.2 days less than the five-year average. Preliminary data for April shows US commercialoil stocks jumped by 47.1 mb, but remained in line with the five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2013 and 2014 saw an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d eachcompared to the previous report. At 30.1 mb/d, demand for OPEC crude in 2013 stood0.4 mb/d lower than in the previous year. Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 is forecast at29.8 mb/d, down 0.4 mb/d from the 2013 level.