5月份，市場波動主要受到一些因素的影響，主要是投機(jī)壓力、美元波動和地緣政治擔(dān)憂。法國港口工人罷工打亂了西非的石油運(yùn)輸和供應(yīng)中斷，進(jìn)一步支撐了看漲的市場勢頭。在煉油廠持續(xù)低運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)率的情況下，對輕質(zhì)終端產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)緊張的擔(dān)憂保持了警覺。盡管如此，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）增產(chǎn)和亞洲國家削減補(bǔ)貼的舉措仍保持了一些看跌情緒。按月度計(jì)算，5月該籃子價(jià)格達(dá)到119.39美元/桶的歷史新高，上漲14.23美元或13.5%。在6月的前兩周，由于CFTC的調(diào)查，市場受到基金拋售的壓力。然而，大西洋颶風(fēng)季節(jié)的開始、天然氣的低儲存水平和投機(jī)性的投機(jī)性價(jià)格預(yù)測使市場再度看漲。中東三次沖突引發(fā)期貨市場又一波資金流入，提振了市場的恐慌溢價(jià)。該籃子在6月9日飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的130.87美元/桶，在6月12日跌至129.77美元/桶。

據(jù)預(yù)測，2008年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率為3.9%，與上月持平。繼第一季度表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期后，歐元區(qū)和美國的預(yù)測分別小幅上調(diào)0.1%至1.2%和1.7%。日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率保持在1.4%不變。美國5月就業(yè)人數(shù)連續(xù)第5個(gè)月下降，失業(yè)率上升4.9萬人，失業(yè)率上升0.5%至5.5%。ISM服務(wù)業(yè)指數(shù)連續(xù)第二個(gè)月再度上揚(yáng)50，顯示大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在增長，盡管增速有所下降，但制造業(yè)繼續(xù)萎縮。美元從4月低點(diǎn)回升，但在6月初仍不穩(wěn)定，因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲（fed）明確表示，貨幣寬松周期已經(jīng)結(jié)束，歐洲央行（ecb）為7月可能的加息做好了準(zhǔn)備。人們的注意力顯然轉(zhuǎn)向了錨定通脹預(yù)期的必要性。由于食品和能源價(jià)格的不斷上漲，通貨膨脹仍然是全球關(guān)注的主要問題。印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期下調(diào)至7.6%，而中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率保持在9.7%不變，俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期上調(diào)0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至7.3%。

由于冬季氣溫低于正常水平，經(jīng)合組織2008年第一季度冬季產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)量下降。此外，經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）對運(yùn)輸燃料（主要是汽油）的需求總體上，特別是美國國際開發(fā)署（USdid）的需求沒有如預(yù)期那樣增長，這是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)活動放緩和當(dāng)前油價(jià)上漲所致。其他經(jīng)合組織成員國的增長不足以抵消2008年前5個(gè)月美國石油需求的下降。今年下半年，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和當(dāng)前的價(jià)格環(huán)境不僅會影響美國的石油需求，還會影響整個(gè)經(jīng)合組織的石油需求。相比之下，預(yù)計(jì)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體今年剩余時(shí)間的石油需求將呈現(xiàn)健康增長。盡管最近一些亞洲國家取消了價(jià)格補(bǔ)貼，但非經(jīng)合組織的需求預(yù)計(jì)將部分抵消美國、歐洲和太平洋地區(qū)的下降。因此，2008年的需求量預(yù)計(jì)將增長110萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均8690萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月的預(yù)測減少60噸/日。

預(yù)計(jì)2008年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)將增長70萬桶/日，達(dá)到5010萬桶/日，與上月的評估相比，下降幅度約為50tb/d。英國、澳大利亞、蘇丹和哈薩克斯坦的向下修正被美國、阿根廷和俄羅斯的向上調(diào)整部分抵消。預(yù)計(jì)2008年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將以50萬桶/日的速度增長，達(dá)到490萬桶/日。5月份，歐佩克原油平均產(chǎn)量為322萬桶/日，較上月增加343噸/日，其中沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克的產(chǎn)量大幅增加。

原油市場的不正常情況掩蓋了產(chǎn)品市場的積極發(fā)展，削弱了歐洲和亞洲的煉油利潤率。石油市場持續(xù)動蕩的情緒以及汽油需求的放緩，特別是在美國，也可能限制產(chǎn)品市場的季節(jié)性看漲發(fā)展，并對未來煉油經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生進(jìn)一步壓力。然而，由于潛在的活躍颶風(fēng)季節(jié)，非計(jì)劃的煉油廠停產(chǎn)可能會改變目前產(chǎn)品市場的前景，提升產(chǎn)品和原油價(jià)格以及煉油利潤率。

歐佩克5月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降了60萬桶/日，平均為1346萬桶/日，相當(dāng)于現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)總量的三分之二。同樣，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的出海量也小幅下降了21萬桶/日，至23.25萬桶/日，部分原因是煉油廠的維護(hù)措施。5月份油輪市場人氣依然看漲，原因是噸位緊張，導(dǎo)致所有報(bào)告航線的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)都呈反常趨勢上升。中東部和東部的超大型油輪交易出現(xiàn)最高漲幅，現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)較上月上漲60%以上。

5月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存下降了400萬桶，原因是原油庫存減少了1900多萬桶，產(chǎn)品庫存增加了1500萬桶。原油庫存接近3.06億桶，接近五年來的平均水平，盡管美國墨西哥灣沿岸原油進(jìn)口量減少導(dǎo)致原油庫存下降。汽油庫存仍在這一范圍內(nèi)，而蒸餾汽油庫存繼續(xù)改善，接近五年平均水平。在歐盟15國加上挪威，石油庫存總量符合其季節(jié)性趨勢，在5月底時(shí)躍升1500萬桶，保持在5年期的上限。不過，據(jù)初步估計(jì)，日本的總庫存在4月進(jìn)一步回升，5月猛增1400萬桶，進(jìn)入5年期。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2007年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3200萬桶/日，比上年增加260噸/日；2008年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3180萬桶/日，比上年減少130噸/日。

Market volatility was dominated by a number a factors in May, primarily speculative pressure, fluctuations in the USdollar and geopolitical concerns. A strike by port workers in France disrupting petroleum shipments and outages in WestAfrica further supported the bullish market momentum. Fear over tight supplies of light-end products amid persistentlow refinery run rates kept alertness in place. Nonetheless, higher OPEC output and a move by Asian countries toreduced subsidies maintained some bearish sentiment. In monthly terms, the Basket reached a record-high of $119.39/bin May for a gain of $14.23 or 13.5%. In the first two weeks of June, the market came under pressure from fund sell-offsamid CFTC investigations. However, the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, low natural gas storage levels andspeculative price projections by investment banks revived market bullishness. The fear premium was boosted by thethreat of conflict in the Middle East triggering another wave of fund inflows in the futures market. The Basket surged toa record high of $130.87/b on 9 June before declining to stand at $129.77/b on 12 June.

World economic growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month. Following a stronger-thanexpectedperformance in the first quarter, forecasts for the Euro-zone and the USA have been revised up slightly by0.1% to 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Japanese growth is unchanged at 1.4%. US payrolls in May fell for the fifthmonth, as job losses rose by 49,000 and the unemployment rate surged 0.5% to 5.5%. The ISM services index remainedabove 50 for the second month, indicating that the bulk of the economy was still growing, albeit at a reduced rate, butmanufacturing continued to contract. The dollar recovered from April lows but remained volatile at the start of June, asthe US Federal Reserve signaled clearly that the monetary easing cycle was at an end, and the European Central Bankprepared the ground for a possible hike in July. Attention turned decidedly to the need for anchoring inflationaryexpectations. Inflation remains the main concern worldwide, fed by uninterrupted hikes in food and energy prices.India’s growth forecast was lowered to 7.6%, while China remains unchanged at 9.7% and Russia’s growth forecast waslifted 0.3 percentage points to 7.3%.

Consumption of winter products declined in the first quarter of 2008 in the OECD as a result of the below-normal wintertemperatures. In addition, demand for transport fuel (mainly gasoline) in the OECD in general but particularly the USdid not grow as expected as a result of slow economic activity and current oil prices. Growth in the other OECD regionswas not enough to offset the decline in oil demand in the US in the first five months of 2008. The slowing US economyand the current price environment will affect oil demand not only in the US but also across the OECD in the second halfof this year. In contrast, emerging economies are expected to show healthy growth in oil demand for the rest of the year.Despite the recent removal of price subsidies in some Asian countries, non OECD demand is expected to partially offsetthe decline in the US, Europe, and the Pacific. As a result, demand is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2008 to average86.9 mb/d, a reduction of 60 tb/d from last month’s forecast.

Non-OPEC supply in 2008 is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d to reach 50.1 mb/d, a downward revision of around 50 tb/dcompared with last month’s assessment. Downward revisions made to UK, Australia, Sudan and Kazakhstan werepartially offset by upward adjustments made to USA, Argentina and Russia. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils in2008 are expected to grow at 0.5 mb/d to reach 4.9 mb/d. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.2 mb/d, anincrease of 343 tb/d from the previous month, with production in Saudi Arabia and Iraq witnessing significant increases.

Irregular circumstances in the crude market overshadowed positive developments in the product markets, underminingrefining margins in Europe and Asia. The continuing volatile sentiment of the oil market along with slowing gasolinedemand, particularly in the US, may also cap the seasonal bullish developments in the product markets and exert furtherpressure on the refining economics in the future. However, unplanned refinery outages due to a potentially activehurricane season could change the current prospects of the product markets lifting product and crude prices as well asrefining margins.

OPEC spot fixtures dropped 0.6 mb/d in May to average 13.46 mb/d, which corresponds to two-thirds of total spotfixtures. Similarly, OPEC sailings fell a minor 0.21 mb/d to 23.25 mb/d, partially due to the refinery maintenanceseason. The tanker market sentiment remained bullish in May due to tonnage tightness which caused spot freight rates toincrease on all reported routes in an unseasonal trend. The highest gain was observed in VLCCs trading between theMiddle East and the East with an increase of more than 60% in spot freight rates from the previous month.

US commercial oil stocks dropped 4 mb in May due to a draw of more than 19 mb on crude oil inventories and a buildof 15 mb in products. At nearly 306 mb, crude oil stocks are near the five-year average despite the drop which wasdriven by low imports following delays in the US Gulf Coast. Gasoline stocks remained within the range while distillateinventories continued to improve to approach the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventoriesfollowed their seasonal trend, jumping 15 mb to remain within the upper end of the five-year range at end-May.However, total inventories in Japan recovered further in April before surging 14 mb in May to move within the five-yearrange, according to preliminary estimates.

The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, an increase of 260 tb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.8 mb/d or 130 tb/d lower than in the previous year.