繼第二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩之后，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)在2004年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)似乎將出現(xiàn)趨勢(shì)性增長(zhǎng)。增長(zhǎng)平衡可能與今年早些時(shí)候有所不同，歐洲將有所改善，亞洲面臨出口增長(zhǎng)下降的壓力。來(lái)自中國(guó)的最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，工業(yè)活動(dòng)已從二季度與投資相關(guān)的疲軟中迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇。盡管采取了限制性措施，但出口和內(nèi)需首次強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格通脹率升至6.8%。如果當(dāng)局被迫提高利率以冷卻經(jīng)濟(jì)，對(duì)日本和其他亞洲投資產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)商的影響可能會(huì)是巨大的。近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，歐元區(qū)的活動(dòng)有所改善，法國(guó)處于領(lǐng)先地位。德國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)需求終于有所改善，2004年德國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)測(cè)提高了0.2%。隨著企業(yè)投資前景保持健康，預(yù)計(jì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)將從非常疲弱的第二季度復(fù)蘇。美國(guó)和日本2004年或2005年的GDP增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)沒有變化。由于對(duì)德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行了修訂，歐元區(qū)2004年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)已增至2%。反過(guò)來(lái)，這又將經(jīng)合組織的總體預(yù)測(cè)提高到3.6%。對(duì)俄羅斯的預(yù)測(cè)穩(wěn)定在7%，對(duì)非洲、拉丁美洲、亞洲（不包括日本）和整個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的預(yù)測(cè)也基本不變，盡管對(duì)歐佩克成員國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)增加了0.3%。2004年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)略高，為4.8%。2005年的預(yù)測(cè)意味著，在2003年開始的經(jīng)濟(jì)大幅復(fù)蘇之后，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將回歸正常水平。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）地區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)2005年將增長(zhǎng)3%，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將達(dá)到3.5%。預(yù)計(jì)2005年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將增至2.2%，但日本經(jīng)濟(jì)可能放緩，僅增長(zhǎng)2.1%，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)和美國(guó)需求的下降可能會(huì)抑制出口。預(yù)計(jì)發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體2005年的增長(zhǎng)速度也將放緩，預(yù)計(jì)2005年全世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)4.3%。今年8月，歐佩克（OPEC）參考指標(biāo)籃子大幅飆升，掩蓋了近期所有紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)。按月度計(jì)算，近4美元/桶的11%漲幅，使籃子平均價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于40美元/桶，這是該組織采用價(jià)格標(biāo)記以來(lái)的首次。截至8月19日的一周，周均價(jià)格為41.94美元/桶，再創(chuàng)歷史新高，而8月8日達(dá)到的43.16美元/桶創(chuàng)下了新的日均價(jià)格紀(jì)錄。與2003年相比，今年迄今的平均增長(zhǎng)幅度超過(guò)21%，即6美元/桶。按周計(jì)算，本月開盤時(shí)，該籃子價(jià)格飆升4.6%或1.72美元/桶，至平均39.12美元/桶。隨后在未來(lái)兩周內(nèi)進(jìn)一步上漲0.96美元/桶和1.86美元/桶。隨后，該籃子下跌61/b，跌幅近1.5%，至平均41.33美元/桶。下跌延續(xù)至9月份，截至9月2日當(dāng)周，該籃子下跌2.44美元/桶，或接近其價(jià)值的6%，至38.89美元/桶，低于40美元/桶的平均水平，油價(jià)下跌27/b，收于38.62/b美元。隨著駕駛季的結(jié)束，市場(chǎng)的焦點(diǎn)已從汽油轉(zhuǎn)向中間餾分油，而中間餾分油目前正引領(lǐng)著產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)。8月份，較高的汽油產(chǎn)量和低于正常水平的庫(kù)存消耗削弱了全球的汽油價(jià)格。加上輕質(zhì)原油價(jià)格堅(jiān)挺，導(dǎo)致美國(guó)和歐洲marginsin煉油廠的產(chǎn)量大幅下降。在亞洲，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)超過(guò)了基準(zhǔn)的漲幅，而這一領(lǐng)域的煉油利潤(rùn)率延續(xù)了此前的上升趨勢(shì)。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，隨著秋季煉油廠檢修的開始，桶體中部的裂紋擴(kuò)展仍將很強(qiáng)。歐佩克承租人在七月下半年觸及了前所未有的水平，以非常高的運(yùn)價(jià)來(lái)阻止船只停泊，8月份歐佩克地區(qū)的租船量下降。由于油輪需求放緩，中東和西行長(zhǎng)途航線的超大型油輪運(yùn)費(fèi)在較低的現(xiàn)貨固定裝置上遭受了巨大損失。由于夏季假期，大多數(shù)租船人的到來(lái)拖累了產(chǎn)品運(yùn)價(jià)，所有主要航線的運(yùn)價(jià)都有所松動(dòng)，特別是在地中海盆地內(nèi)。2004年和2005年世界石油需求預(yù)測(cè)分別修正為8158萬(wàn)桶/日和8332萬(wàn)桶/日，原因是2004年第二季度需求增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)380萬(wàn)桶/日或4.95%。這是自1985年以來(lái)季度成交量增幅最大的一個(gè)季度，也是增長(zhǎng)率最高的一個(gè)季度。與上一年的相應(yīng)季度相比，上一季度的增幅最高，為1997年第三季度的315萬(wàn)桶/日。上一季度的最高增長(zhǎng)率是1988年第四季度的4.69%。按第二來(lái)源計(jì)算，歐佩克8月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為2979萬(wàn)桶/日，比7月份修訂的數(shù)字高出26萬(wàn)桶/日。非歐佩克國(guó)家2004年的石油供應(yīng)量估計(jì)為507萬(wàn)桶/日，比2003年的4862萬(wàn)桶/日高出145萬(wàn)桶/日。2005年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到5127萬(wàn)桶/日，比2004年的預(yù)測(cè)增加119萬(wàn)桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的凈出口量估計(jì)分別為555萬(wàn)桶/日和646萬(wàn)桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)2004年和2005年分別增至726萬(wàn)桶/日和778萬(wàn)桶/日。8月份，商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量幾乎保持不變。從商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存中提取的1290萬(wàn)美元被等量的產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存所抵消。商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量達(dá)到了令人滿意的水平，達(dá)到了23.5兆桶或2.5%的同比盈余。歐洲的石油庫(kù)存總量顯示為460萬(wàn)桶，其中960萬(wàn)桶的產(chǎn)量大幅增加，使原油庫(kù)存減少了500萬(wàn)桶。盡管如此，庫(kù)存仍為960萬(wàn)件，比去年同期水平低1%。2004年7月，日本石油庫(kù)存大幅增長(zhǎng)100萬(wàn)桶，主要原因是原油庫(kù)存幾乎增加了700萬(wàn)桶，但仍顯示出10.4%的同比短缺。

Following the second quarter slowdown the world economy looks set for trend-like growth in the remainder of 2004. Thebalance of growth may be different from earlier in the year, with Europe set to improve and Asia under pressure fromdeclining export growth. Latest data from China suggests that industrial activity has recovered rapidly from the investmentrelatedweakness in the second quarter. Despite the restrictive measures, exports and domestic demand grew strongly inAugust and producer price inflation rose to 6.8%. If the authorities are forced to raise interest rates to cool the economy, theimpact on Japan and other Asian suppliers of investment goods could be dramatic. Euro-zone activity has improved in recent months with France in the lead. Domestic demand in Germany has finally shownsigns of improvement and the German GDP forecast for 2004 has been raised by 0.2%. The Japanese economy is expectedto recover from a very weak second quarter as the outlook for corporate investment remains healthy. There are no changes tothe US or Japanese GDP growth forecasts for 2004 or 2005. As a result of the revision to the German growth forecast, the Euro-zone estimate for 2004 has been increased to 2%. In turnthis raises the overall OECD forecast to 3.6%. The forecast for Russia is held steady at 7% and the forecasts for Africa, LatinAmerica, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countries as a whole are also largely unchanged although the forecast forOPEC Member Countries is increased by 0.3%. The GDP growth forecast for the world economy is slightly higher at 4.8%for 2004. The forecasts for 2005 imply a return to more normal growth rates following the sharp economic recovery which began in2003. The OECD region is expected to grow by 3% in 2005 with the US economy achieving 3.5%. The Euro-zone growthrate is forecast to increase to 2.2% in 2005 but the Japanese economy may slow, growing by only 2.1% as exports may belimited by lower Chinese and American demand. Developing economies are also expected to grow more slowly in 2005 andthe world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2005. In August, all recent record-highs were obscured by the dramatic surge in the OPEC Reference Basket. On a monthly basis,the 11% rise of almost $4/b took the Basket average well above $40/b for the first time since the Organization adopted theprice marker. The $41.94/b weekly average for the week ending 19 August constitutes another all-time record high, whilethe $43.16/b reached on 8 August set a new record daily average. The year-to-date average widened by more than 21% or$6/b compared to 2003. On a weekly basis, the month started with the Basket surging by 4.6% or $1.72/b to average$39.12/b. This was followed by further gains of $0.96/b and $1.86/b in the next two weeks. Then the Basket saw a downturnlosing 61/b or almost 1.5% to average $41.33/b. The fall extended into the month of September with the Basket losing$2.44/b or close to 6% of its value in the week ending 2 September which took the average below the $40/b mark to$38.89/b. The Basket continued to fall in the following week, although at a slower pace, shedding 27/b to close at $38.62/b. With the end of the driving season, the market’s focus has shifted from gasoline to middle distillates, which are now leadingthe product markets. In August, higher gasoline output and a lower-than-normal stock-draw undermined gasoline pricesacross the globe. This, coupled with the strong prices for light crude oil, resulted in a significant decline in refinery marginsin the USA and Europe. In Asia, the performance of the product market outpaced the rise in the benchmark, while refinerymargins in this area extended their previous upward trend. It is projected that, with the start of autumn refinery maintenance,the crack spread in the middle-of-the-barrel complex will remain strong. OPEC charterers refraining from fixing vessels given the very high freight rates, which touched unprecedented levels duringthe second half of July, pushed OPEC area spot chartering down during August. VLCC freight rates on the Middle Easteastbound and westbound long-haul routes experienced large losses on lower spot fixtures due to slower tanker demand. Theabsence of most charterers because of summer vacations weighed on product freight rates which loosened along all mainroutes, especially within the Mediterranean basin. The 2004 and 2005 world oil demand forecasts have been revised up to 81.58 mb/d and 83.32 mb/d respectively, due to theexceptionally high demand growth seen in the second quarter of 2004 at 3.80 mb/d or 4.95%. This represents both thelargest quarterly volume increment and the highest growth rate in any quarter since 1985. The previous high for thequarterly increment, which compares the quarter with corresponding one in the preceding year, was the 3.15 mb/d seen inthe third quarter of 1997. The previous high for quarterly growth was the 4.69% registered in the fourth quarter of 1988. OPEC crude oil production in August, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 29.79 mb/d, 0.26 mb/d above the revisedJuly figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 50.07 mb/d, which is 1.45 mb/d higher than the 48.62 mb/destimated for 2003. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 51.27 mb/d, an increase of 1.19 mb/d over the 2004forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.55 mb/d and 6.46 mb/d respectively, and are expected to riseto 7.26 mb/d in 2004 and 7.78 mb/d in 2005. In August, total commercial oil stocks remained almost unchanged. The 12.9 mb draw on commercial crude oil stocks wasoffset by a build of the same amount in product inventories. Total commercial oil stocks are at comfortable levels registeringa 23.5 mb or 2.5% y-o-y surplus. Total oil stocks in Europe displayed a build of 4.6 mb, with the large 9.6 mb increase inproducts abating the 5.0 mb draw on crude oil inventories. Despite this build, inventories were 9.6 mb or 1% below lastyear’s level at this time. Japan’s oil stocks rose a substantial 10.0 mb in July 2004, mainly due to a large increase of almost7 mb in crude oil stocks, but still displayed a y-o-y shortage of 10.4%.