原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)8月份，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子上漲42美元至43.10美元/桶。ICE布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲62美元，至47.16美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期貨價(jià)格持平于44.80美元/桶。布倫特原油/WTI價(jià)差在8月份進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大至2.36美元/桶。盡管美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存意外增加、供應(yīng)增加以及對(duì)中國(guó)需求的擔(dān)憂在月底對(duì)價(jià)格造成壓力，但原油價(jià)格上漲，出現(xiàn)供需平衡改善和美元疲軟的跡象。2016年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)下調(diào)至2.9%，2017年仍保持在3.1%。1H16增長(zhǎng)疲弱導(dǎo)致美國(guó)2016年增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至1.5%，而2017年增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)仍為2.1%。鑒于16年上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)疲弱，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也下調(diào)至0.7%。歐元區(qū)今年和2017年的增長(zhǎng)率保持不變，分別為1.5%和1.2%。對(duì)中國(guó)和印度的預(yù)測(cè)也保持不變，2016年為6.5%和7.5%，2017年為6.1%和7.2%。巴西和俄羅斯的數(shù)據(jù)與8月份的MOMR相比仍然沒有變化，預(yù)計(jì)明年的增長(zhǎng)率分別為0.4%和0.7%。經(jīng)過總體上調(diào)后，預(yù)計(jì)2016年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率將增加123萬桶/日，主要反映出經(jīng)合組織上半年好于預(yù)期的數(shù)據(jù)。2016年的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為9427萬桶/日。2017年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)115萬桶/日，與8月份的MOMR持平，平均為9542萬桶/日。明年的主要增長(zhǎng)中心仍然是印度、中國(guó)和美國(guó)。2016年的世界石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將減少61萬桶/日，從8月的MOMR到平均56.32 mb/d，年產(chǎn)量修正為0.18 mb/d。這主要是由于美國(guó)致密油產(chǎn)量下降低于預(yù)期，挪威的表現(xiàn)好于預(yù)期，以及inKazakhstan Kashagan油田的早期啟動(dòng)。2017年，非歐佩克天然氣供應(yīng)量修正為35萬桶/日，增長(zhǎng)20萬桶/日，平均為56.52萬桶/日，主要原因是卡沙干新增產(chǎn)量。預(yù)計(jì)2017年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量平均為643萬桶/日，比今年增加15萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量下降了23 tb/d，降至3324 mb/d。大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)在8月份有所增強(qiáng)。由于汽油需求強(qiáng)勁、對(duì)歐盟的出口機(jī)會(huì)，以及對(duì)熱帶風(fēng)暴和美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸洪災(zāi)造成的天氣干擾的擔(dān)憂，煉油利潤(rùn)率受到了桶頂利好表現(xiàn)的支撐。在亞洲，由于需求強(qiáng)勁和秋季保養(yǎng)前庫(kù)存下降，利潤(rùn)率略有回升。油輪市場(chǎng)臟油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)在8月份仍面臨壓力，所有類別的油輪都出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。自7月份以來，超大型油輪、蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的即期運(yùn)價(jià)分別下降了12%、30%和14%。運(yùn)價(jià)下跌的主要原因是，在貨物裝載要求仍然有限的情況下，由于新交貨導(dǎo)致的噸供應(yīng)過剩。7月份，商業(yè)庫(kù)存總量下降至3091百萬桶，比最新五年平均水平高出約341百萬桶。原油和產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存分別出現(xiàn)2億桶和1.41億桶的盈余。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織7月份商業(yè)庫(kù)存為66.1天，比季節(jié)平均水平高出約7天。預(yù)計(jì)2016年歐佩克原油供需平衡為3170萬桶/日，同比約170萬桶/日。2017年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求為3250萬桶/日，比今年增加80萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose 42 to $43.10/b in August. ICE Brent ended up 62 at$47.16/b, while NYMEX WTI was unchanged at $44.80/b. The Brent/WTI spread widenedfurther to $2.36/b in August. Crude price rose on signs of an improving supply/demandbalance and US dollar weakness, although a surprise build in US crude stocks, increasingsupplies and worries about Chinese demand pressured prices at the end of the month.World EconomyWorld economic growth was revised down to 2.9% for 2016 and remains at 3.1% for 2017.Weak 1H16 growth caused a downward revision to the US growth forecast for 2016 to1.5%, while the 2017 forecast remains at 2.1%. Growth in Japan was also revised down to0.7% given weak 1H16 growth. Euro-zone growth remains unchanged at 1.5% for this yearand 1.2% for 2017. Forecasts for China and India are also unchanged at 6.5% and 7.5%for 2016 and 6.1% and 7.2% for 2017. The figures for Brazil and Russia remain unchangedfrom the August MOMR, with growth forecast at 0.4% and 0.7% respectively for next year.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2016 is now anticipated to increase by 1.23 mb/d after amarginal upward revision, mainly to reflect better-than-expected OECD data for the firsthalf of the year. Oil demand in 2016 is expected to average 94.27 mb/d. In 2017, world oildemand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, unchanged from the August MOMR, toaverage 95.42 mb/d. The main growth centres for next year continue to be India, Chinaand the US.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.61 mb/d, following anupward revision of 0.18 mb/d from the August MOMR to average 56.32 mb/d. This hasbeen mainly due to a lower-than-expected decline in US tight oil and a better-thanexpectedperformance in Norway, as well as the early start-up of Kashagan field inKazakhstan. In 2017, non-OPEC supply was revised up by 0.35 mb/d to show growth of0.20 mb/d to average of 56.52 mb/d, mainly due to new production from Kashagan.OPEC NGLs are expected to average 6.43 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.15 mb/d overthe current year. OPEC output, according to secondary sources, dropped by 23 tb/d inAugust to 33.24 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in August. Refining margins weresupported by the positive performance at the top of the barrel due to strong gasolinedemand and export opportunities to the EU, as well as concerns about weather disruptionsfrom tropical storms and flooding in the US Gulf Coast. In Asia, margins showed a slightrecovery on the back of firm demand and falling inventories ahead of autumn maintenance.Tanker MarketDirty tanker spot freight rates remained under pressure in August, with negativedevelopments among all classes. VLCC, Suexmax and Aframax spot freight rates declinedby 12%, 30% and 14% since July. The drop in rates was mainly driven by excess tonnagesupply due to new deliveries at a time when cargo loading requirements remain limited.Stock MovementsOECD total commercial stocks fell in July to stand at 3,091 mb, some 341 mb above thelatest five-year average. Crude and product inventories showed surpluses of 200 mb and141 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks in Julystood at 66.1 days, around 7 days higher than the seasonal average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.7 mb/d, some 1.7 mb/d overlast year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.5 mb/d, an increase of0.8 mb/d over the current year.