2月份，歐佩克的一籃子參考價(jià)格繼續(xù)走高，收于117.48美元/桶，較上月上漲5.72美元/桶，漲幅5.1%。地緣政治因素進(jìn)一步加劇了原油期貨市場投機(jī)活動(dòng)的激增，從而支持了這一增長。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的改善和希臘金融救助計(jì)劃的一些積極進(jìn)展也對(duì)希臘提供了支持。2月份，原油期貨價(jià)格也走高，紐約商品交易所（NYMEX）WTI指數(shù)上漲1.94美元，至平均102.26美元/桶，ICE布倫特指數(shù)上漲7.61美元，至平均119.06美元/桶。近幾天，原油價(jià)格保持強(qiáng)勁，3月8日，歐佩克基準(zhǔn)籃子指數(shù)為124.13美元/桶。

2012年和2011年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率保持不變，分別為3.4%和3.6%。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇，預(yù)計(jì)2012年將增長2.2%，與上月持平。日本的刺激措施和私營部門的重建工作預(yù)計(jì)將使2012年增長率降至1.8%，與上月持平的是，歐元區(qū)的減速已趨于平穩(wěn)，2012年的增長預(yù)期仍為負(fù)0.2%。新興市場似乎繼續(xù)在高水平上擴(kuò)張。中國對(duì)2012年的預(yù)測一直保持在8.2%，而印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，2012年的預(yù)測從7.2%下調(diào)至7.1%。雖然全球產(chǎn)出活動(dòng)在過去幾周有所恢復(fù)，但下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在。

據(jù)預(yù)測，2012年世界石油需求將增長90萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，2011年世界石油需求將略微下降80萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長速度緩慢，對(duì)石油需求產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，并給潛在消費(fèi)增長帶來很大的不確定性。盡管美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示表現(xiàn)較好，但歐洲局勢以及油價(jià)上漲已導(dǎo)致今年剩余時(shí)間的未來石油需求存在相當(dāng)大的不確定性。

2012年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加60萬桶/日，此前一年僅小幅增長30噸/日。2012年這一數(shù)字較上個(gè)月下降了10萬桶/日，主要原因是對(duì)敘利亞、前蘇丹和也門的預(yù)測有所修正，以及一些國家的供應(yīng)情況發(fā)生了變化，此外還更新了歷史數(shù)據(jù)。預(yù)計(jì)2012年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均供應(yīng)量為570萬桶/日，比上年增加40萬桶/日，與上年持平。二級(jí)資源顯示，2月份，歐佩克原油的總產(chǎn)量增加了140tb/d，達(dá)到平均3097mb/d。

由于經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱和北半球冬季溫和，對(duì)中間餾分油的需求令人失望，2月份產(chǎn)品市場人氣轉(zhuǎn)為看跌。歐洲暫時(shí)的寒流無法提振產(chǎn)品市場。巴雷瓦頂部的持續(xù)復(fù)蘇超過了原油價(jià)格上漲，導(dǎo)致全球煉油廠利潤率下降。

與上月相比，歐佩克2月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量更高，平均為1230萬桶/日。歐佩克的出海量也有所增加，但不同地區(qū)的目的地情況喜憂參半。今年2月，許多關(guān)鍵航線的可用噸位以及遠(yuǎn)東地區(qū)的假日期間繼續(xù)對(duì)油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)構(gòu)成壓力，導(dǎo)致臟艙運(yùn)價(jià)和凈艙運(yùn)價(jià)分別下降6%和8%。

2月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存增加了400萬桶，順差擴(kuò)大，五年平均值為370萬桶，比一年前增加了1260萬桶。這一建設(shè)歸因于原油，增加了590萬桶，而產(chǎn)品下降了190萬桶。在日本，1月份最新的一個(gè)月數(shù)據(jù)顯示，商業(yè)石油庫存連續(xù)第四個(gè)月下降了90萬桶。根據(jù)這一數(shù)字，庫存比一年前減少了140萬件，而五年平均水平的赤字仍為980萬件。所有的庫存都來自原油，原油下降了120萬桶，而原油產(chǎn)量上升了30萬桶。

2011年對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求與之前估計(jì)的3010萬桶/日持平，比2010年增加了40萬桶/日。2012年，與上一份報(bào)告一致，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油的平均需求量為300萬桶/日，比去年減少約10萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket continued to move higher in February, settling at $117.48/b,representing an increase of $5.72/b or 5.1% over the previous month. The increase was supportedby geopolitical factors that were further amplified by a surge in speculative activities in the crude oilfuture markets. The improvement in US economic data and some positive developments in theGreek financial bailout were also supportive. In February, crude futures also moved higher withNymex WTI increasing by $1.94 to average $102.26/b and ICE Brent gaining $7.61 to average$119.06/b. Crude oil prices have remained strong in recent days with the OPEC Reference Basketstanding at $124.13/b on 8 March.

  World economic growth remains unchanged at 3.4% for 2012 and 3.6% for 2011. The UScontinues recovering and is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2012, unchanged from the previous month.Japan’s stimulus along with expected reconstruction efforts by the private sector are expected todrive 2012 growth to 1.8%, unchanged from last month The Euro-zone’s deceleration has flattenedout and growth expectations for 2012 remain at minus 0.2%. Emerging markets seem to continueexpanding at high levels. China’s forecast has been kept at 8.2% for 2012, while growth in India’seconomy has slowed and the 2012 forecast has been revised down to 7.1% from 7.2%. While globaloutput activity has recovered to some extent in the past weeks, downside risks prevail.

  World oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous report,following marginally decreased growth of 0.8 mb/d in 2011. The weak pace of growth in the OECDeconomies is negatively affecting oil demand and imposing a high range of uncertainty on potentialconsumption growth. Although US economic data points toward a better performance, the situationin Europe along with higher oil prices has resulted in considerable uncertainties on the future oildemand for the remainder of the year. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2012, following only minor growth of30 tb/d in the previous year. The 2012 figure represents a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d fromthe previous month, mainly due to revisions in forecasts for Syria, the former Sudan, and Yemen, aswell as changes in the supply profile of some countries, in addition to updates to historical data.OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.7 mb/d in 2012, an increase of0.4 mb/d over the previous year and unchanged from the previous report. In February, total OPECcrude oil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 140 tb/d to average 30.97 mb/d. 

Product market sentiment turned bearish in February, following disappointing demand for middledistillates due to the weak economy and the mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The temporarycold spell in Europe was unable to lift product markets. A continued recovery at the top of the barrelwas outweighed by crude price gains, causing the refinery margins to decline worldwide. 

OPEC spot fixtures were higher in February compared to the previous month, averaging12.3 mb/d. OPEC sailings also increased, but destinations in different regions were mixed. Tonnageavailability on many key routes, as well as the holiday period in the Far East continued to pressuretanker spot freight rates in February, leading to a decline in both dirty and clean rates of 6% and 8%respectively.

  In February, US commercial oil stocks increased by 4.0 mb, widening the surplus with the fiveyearaverage to 37.0 mb and stood at 12.6 mb above a year ago. The build was attributable tocrude, which increased by 5.9 mb, while products fell 1.9 mb. In Japan, the most recent monthlydata for January shows that commercial oil inventories declined for the fourth consecutive month by0.9 mb. With this draw, inventories were 1.4 mb below a year ago, while the deficit with the five-yearaverage remained at 9.8 mb. All of the stockdraw came from crude, which declined by 1.2 mb, whileproducts rose 0.3 mb. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment at30.1 mb/d, representing a gain of 0.4 mb/d over the 2010 level. In 2012, demand for OPECcrude is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, in line with the previous report and about 0.1 mb/dlower than last year.