8月份，歐佩克的參考價(jià)格區(qū)間在70-79美元/桶之間，平均為74.15美元/桶，較上月上漲1.64美元或2.3%。由于市場情緒惡化，加上經(jīng)合組織（OECD）公布的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)令人失望，該籃子指數(shù)在8月24日跌至70美元/桶以下之前，從月初的79美元/桶開始下跌。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一個(gè)月合約8月份與股市持平，至平均76.67美元/桶，較上月上漲28美元。同期，ICE布倫特原油價(jià)格達(dá)到77.12美元/桶，較WTI上漲1.76美元/桶，漲幅2%，溢價(jià)45美元。9月8日，歐佩克的一攬子計(jì)劃為74.04美元/桶。2010年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率與上一份報(bào)告的3.9%持平，而2011年則略微下調(diào)至3.6%。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）多數(shù)成員國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速明顯加快，全球增長失衡加劇，而發(fā)展中國家繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張。由于刺激計(jì)劃的影響減弱，美國和日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長已被下調(diào)。美國2010年和2011年的增長率分別為2.6%和2.3%，而日本預(yù)計(jì)分別增長2.5%和1.3%。歐元區(qū)在2010年第二季度獲得了驚人的增長勢頭，預(yù)計(jì)2010年和2011年分別增長1.2%和1.0%。在國內(nèi)需求的支持下，印度預(yù)計(jì)2010年和2011年分別增長8.2%和7.7%。中國似乎正在成功地冷卻經(jīng)濟(jì)，2010年的預(yù)測值保持在9.5%不變，而2011年則略微降至8.6%。2010年世界石油需求增長基本保持在100萬桶/日的水平不變。在主要消費(fèi)國的刺激計(jì)劃的支持下，今年上半年全球石油需求超出預(yù)期。隨著這些政策的逐步放松，預(yù)計(jì)下半年的需求將走低。2011年，世界石油需求增長預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)保持目前的100萬桶/日水平，與上次評估持平。以中國、印度、中東和拉丁美洲為首的非經(jīng)合組織國家仍將是需求增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)者。自上次評估以來，非歐佩克國家2010年的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將比上一年增加90萬桶/日，此前該國的石油供應(yīng)量上調(diào)了130噸/日。2011年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將比上一年增長40萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2010年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)天然氣的平均日產(chǎn)量為480萬桶，2011年為530萬桶，這兩年的增長率為50萬桶/日。8月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量為2915萬桶/日，較上月略有下降。由于產(chǎn)品庫存在駕駛季結(jié)束時(shí)大大高于歷史水平，產(chǎn)品市場仍然面臨壓力，特別是在美國和歐洲。對中間餾分油的強(qiáng)勁需求有助于防止煉油利潤率進(jìn)一步下降，盡管這受到高庫存水平的限制。由于煉油廠減產(chǎn)不太可能抵消庫存過剩的壓力，盡管需求旺季已經(jīng)開始，但未來幾個(gè)月，成品油市場的持續(xù)看跌局面仍有可能繼續(xù)。8月份，油輪市場上所有航線的運(yùn)價(jià)都在下降。由于浮式儲油量下降而導(dǎo)致的高噸位可用性導(dǎo)致運(yùn)價(jià)下降。超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下跌8.6%，蘇伊士型油輪下跌4.9%，阿芙拉型油輪下跌8.1%。產(chǎn)品市場現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)呈現(xiàn)混合格局，蘇伊士以東現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)上漲23%，蘇伊士以西現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下跌26%。美國商業(yè)股繼續(xù)上漲，8月份增加1840萬股，順差擴(kuò)大，5年平均值接近12300萬股。這批原油的主要來源是產(chǎn)品，增加了1470萬桶，而原油庫存則增加了370萬桶。日本最新月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份商業(yè)石油庫存增加250萬桶，但仍低于5年平均水平800萬桶。初步跡象顯示，日本商業(yè)石油庫存總量在去年年底下降了約500萬桶。2010年歐佩克原油需求量較上一份報(bào)告下調(diào)了10萬桶/日，降至2860萬桶/日，較去年下降了30萬桶/日。2011年對原油的需求量也下降了10萬桶/日，平均為28.8萬桶/日，比上一年增加了20萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket moved within a range of $70-79/b in August to average $74.15/b,representing an increase of $1.64 or 2.3% over the previous month. The Basket started the monthjust under $79/b before falling to below $70/b on 24 August as market sentiment deteriorated ondisappointing macroeconomic data across the OECD. The Nymex WTI front month contract movedin line with equities to average $76.67/b in August, up 28 from the previous month. Over the sameperiod, ICE Brent reached $77.12/b, representing a gain of $1.76/b or 2% and a premium of 45over WTI. On 8 September, the OPEC Basket stood at $74.04/b. World economic growth in 2010 remains unchanged since the previous report at 3.9%, while 2011has been revised down slightly to 3.6%. The imbalance in global growth has intensified with adeceleration becoming apparent in most of the OECD, while developing countries continue toexpand. Growth in the US and Japan have been revised down due to the diminishing impact ofstimulus packages. US growth stands at 2.6% in 2010 and 2.3% in 2011, while Japan is expected togrow by 2.5% and 1.3% respectively. The Euro-zone gained surprising momentum in 2Q10 and isforecast to grow at 1.2% in 2010 and 1.0% in 2011. Supported by domestic demand, India isexpected to expand at 8.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011. China seems to be successfully coolingdown the economy with the forecast for 2010 unchanged at 9.5%, while 2011 has been loweredslightly to 8.6%. World oil demand growth in 2010 remains broadly unchanged at 1.0 mb/d. Global oil demand washigher than expected in the first half of the year, supported by stimulus packages in key consumingcountries. With these winding down, demand in the second half is expected to move lower. In 2011,world oil demand growth is expected to continue at the current level of 1.0 mb/d, unchanged fromthe last assessment. Non-OECD countries will remain the key contributors to demand growth, led byChina, India, the Middle East and Latin America. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2010 is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d over the previous year, followingan upward revision of 130 tb/d since the last assessment. In 2011, non-OPEC oil supply isforecast to grow by 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals areexpected to average 4.8 mb/d in 2010 and 5.3 mb/d in 2011, representing growth of 0.5 mb/d forboth years. In August, OPEC crude oil production stood at 29.15 mb/d, representing a marginaldecline from the previous month. With product stocks considerably above historical levels at the end of the driving season, productmarkets remained under pressure, especially in the US and Europe. Strong demand for middledistillates helped prevent a deeper drop in refining margins, although this was limited by highinventory levels. As the cut in refinery runs is not likely to offset the pressure of the stock overhang,the persisting bearish situation in the product markets is likely to continue over the coming months,despite the start of the high demand season. The tanker market experienced declining rates on all routes in August. High tonnage availabilitydue to the drop in floating storage contributed to the decline in freight rates. VLCC spot freight ratesfell 8.6%, Suezmax dropped 4.9% and Aframax declined 8.1% m-o-m. Product market spot freightexperienced mixed patterns with East of Suez spot rates increasing 23% while West of Suez ratesdeclined 26%. US commercial stocks continued to rise, increasing by 18.4 mb in August, widening the surpluswith the five-year average to nearly 123 mb. The bulk of this build came from products, whichincreased by 14.7 mb, while crude stocks rose 3.7 mb. The latest monthly data for Japan showscommercial oil stocks increased 2.5 mb in July, but remained 8 mb below the five-year average.Preliminary indications shows Japanese total commercial oil stocks fell by around 5 mb at the end ofAugust. Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report tostand at 28.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to last year. Demand for OPECcrude in 2011 has also been revised down by 0.1 mb/d to average 28.8 mb/d, representing anincrease of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year.