石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）9月份參考價(jià)格下跌4.18美元或5.9%，至67.17美元/桶。9月初股市的熊市走勢(shì)對(duì)全球原油價(jià)格構(gòu)成下行壓力，產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存增加了這一壓力。然而，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，美元貶值、股票價(jià)格上漲和需求預(yù)測(cè)改善，市場(chǎng)情緒轉(zhuǎn)向，原油價(jià)格上漲。這些因素繼續(xù)推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入10月，截至10月9日的一周內(nèi)，該籃子從前一周的65.75美元/桶升至67.63美元/桶。有關(guān)2009年第三季度美國(guó)企業(yè)盈利的積極報(bào)告可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步支持未來(lái)幾周的市場(chǎng)情緒和價(jià)格。在財(cái)政和貨幣政策的支持下，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了復(fù)蘇的跡象，但私人支出仍然疲軟，特別是在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家。2010年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)了0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，達(dá)到2.7%，而2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期仍保持在負(fù)1.2%的水平。中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)作了重大調(diào)整，預(yù)計(jì)2009年和2010年分別增長(zhǎng)8.0%和8.5%。這突出表明，2010年預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的依賴性相對(duì)較高，這可能構(gòu)成今后的額外挑戰(zhàn)。非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家目前預(yù)計(jì)將占2010年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的2.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，經(jīng)合組織僅貢獻(xiàn)0.5%。隨著美國(guó)石油需求從歷史急劇下降中反彈，2009年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)已經(jīng)修正了20萬(wàn)桶/日，現(xiàn)在顯示出140萬(wàn)桶/日的萎縮。考慮到世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的逐步改善，2010年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)修正了20萬(wàn)桶/日至70萬(wàn)桶/日。明年需求增長(zhǎng)的大部分將發(fā)生在非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家，主要是中國(guó)、中東、印度和拉丁美洲。大部分需求將來(lái)自工業(yè)、運(yùn)輸和石化部門(mén)。2009年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加410 tb/d，主要原因是美國(guó)、俄羅斯和里海地區(qū)的石油供應(yīng)量高于預(yù)期。2010年，在巴西、阿塞拜疆、加拿大和哈薩克斯坦的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)的支持下，非運(yùn)營(yíng)成本供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)350 tb/d。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2010年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將增加50萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均530萬(wàn)桶/日。9月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均2890萬(wàn)桶/日，比上個(gè)月略有增加43 tb/d。由于汽油裂縫蔓延范圍的縮小和全球蒸餾油庫(kù)存的持續(xù)增加，9月份產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步下跌。盡管有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和需求增長(zhǎng)積極影響的報(bào)告令人樂(lè)觀，但產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)依然疲弱，迫使煉油企業(yè)削減運(yùn)營(yíng)水平。大西洋盆地的早期寒流可能為未來(lái)的產(chǎn)品和原油價(jià)格提供一定的支撐，但充足的餾出油庫(kù)存可能限制這些積極的發(fā)展。歐佩克9月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量比上月增長(zhǎng)了12%。來(lái)自歐佩克的航行相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。9月份，原油油輪市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)價(jià)增長(zhǎng)了5%，超大型油輪板塊下跌了7%，蘇伊士型油輪上漲了16%。隨著原油期貨合約結(jié)構(gòu)的收窄，油輪上儲(chǔ)存的原油減少了約10兆桶，但中間餾分油增加了約15兆桶。在蘇伊士以東市場(chǎng)更加堅(jiān)挺的情況下，清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)平均上漲了5%。美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存恢復(fù)上升趨勢(shì)，9月份增加1040萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到11090萬(wàn)桶，意味著有近9000萬(wàn)桶的庫(kù)存過(guò)剩。原油庫(kù)存連續(xù)第五個(gè)月下降，但仍高于五年平均水平3200萬(wàn)桶。在歐洲，石油庫(kù)存總量下降了近500萬(wàn)桶，但仍在五年期的上半年范圍內(nèi)。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，8月份日本商業(yè)石油類股小幅下跌，但隨后在9月份回升。據(jù)估計(jì)，2009年歐佩克原油需求平均為2860萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一份報(bào)告高出約10萬(wàn)桶/日。與上一年相比，這仍然是230萬(wàn)桶/日的大幅下降。2010年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求平均為2840萬(wàn)桶/日，較之前的評(píng)估上升了30萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年同期下降了20萬(wàn)桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket fell by $4.18 or 5.9% in September to reach $67.17/b. Bearishdevelopments in equity markets in early September exerted downward pressure on crude pricesacross the world, reinforced by product stock builds. However, US dollar depreciation, increasingequity prices and improving demand projections due to the economic recovery have turned marketsentiment and lifted crude prices. These factors continued to strengthen the market into Octoberwith the Basket rising to $67.63/b in the week ended 9 October from $65.75/b the week before.Positive reports about US corporate earnings for 3Q09 may provide further support for marketsentiment and prices in the weeks ahead. Supported by fiscal and monetary policy, the world economy is showing signs of recovery.However, private spending remains muted, particularly in the advanced countries. The growthforecast for 2010 was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%, while the 2009 forecast remainedat the level of minus 1.2%. The major adjustment was made in the forecast for Chinese GDP growthwhich is now projected to grow by 8.0% in 2009 and by 8.5% in 2010. This underlines the relativehigh dependency of the 2010 forecast on non-OECD countries, which could constitute an additionalchallenge going forward. Non-OECD countries are now expected to make up 2.2 percentage pointsof world economic growth in 2010 with OECD contributing only 0.5%. With the US oil demand bouncing back from a steep historical decline, the forecast for 2009 worldoil demand growth has been revised up by 0.2 mb/d to now show a contraction of 1.4 mb/d. Globaloil demand growth in 2010 has been revised up by 0.2 mb/d to 0.7 mb/d to take into account thegradual improvement in the world economy. The bulk of next year’s demand growth will take placein the non-OECD, mainly China, the Middle East, India, and Latin America. Most of this demand willbe as a result of industrial, transport and petrochemical sectors. Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 410 tb/d in 2009, following an upward revisionmainly due to higher-than-expected supply from the US, Russia and Caspian region. In 2010, nonOPECoil supply is expected to grow 350 tb/d, supported by anticipated growth in Brazil, Azerbaijan,Canada and Kazakhstan. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are forecast to increase by 0.5mb/d in 2010 to average 5.3 mb/d. In September, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 28.9mb/d according to secondary sources, representing a slight increase of 43 tb/d over the previousmonth.Product markets lost further ground in September due to a narrowing of the gasoline crack spreadand continuation of distillate stockbuilding across the globe. Despite bullish reports about theeconomic recovery and the positive implications for demand growth, product markets remain weak,forcing refiners to trim operation levels. An early cold snap in the Atlantic Basin may provide somesupport for products and crude prices in the future, but ample distillate stocks could cap thesepositive developments. OPEC spot fixtures in September rose by 12% compared to the previous month. Sailings fromOPEC were relatively steady. Freight rates in the crude oil tanker market increased by a margin of5% in September with the VLCC sector falling 7% and Suezmax increasing by 16%. Storing crudeoil on tankers declined by about 10 mb with the narrowing of the contango structure in crude oilfutures, but middle distillates increased by about 15 mb. Clean spot freight rates increased by 5% onaverage with a much firmer East of Suez market. US commercial oil stocks resumed their upward trend, increasing 10.4 mb in September to standat 1,109 mb, implying an overhang of nearly 90 mb. The build was attributed to products, particularlydistillates, while crude oil stocks dropped for the fifth consecutive month but remained 32 mb abovethe five-year average. In Europe, total oil stocks dropped nearly 5 mb but remained within the upperhalf of the five-year range. Japan’s commercial oil stocks fell slightly in August but then recovered inSeptember, according to preliminary data. The demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.6 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d higherfrom the previous report. This still represents a considerable decline of 2.3 mb/d compared to theprevious year. In 2010, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.4 mb/d, an upwardrevision of 0.3 mb/d from the previous assessment and a decline of 0.2 mb/d from a year earlier.