5月25日，石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）參考價(jià)格跌至67美元/桶以下，為2009年10月初以來(lái)的最低水平，突顯出市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性，因宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)令人失望，市場(chǎng)對(duì)歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)影響的擔(dān)憂，石油需求的不確定性再次出現(xiàn)。5月份，TheOPEC參考籃子平均價(jià)格為74.48美元/桶，較4月份下跌9.5%，而WTI front Monthd下跌12%，因市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)為熊市。原油期貨市場(chǎng)的投機(jī)性活動(dòng)也有所下降，因?yàn)?月份基金經(jīng)理將凈多頭頭寸削減了近60%。

今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率從上月的3.5%上調(diào)至3.8%。此次調(diào)整主要是由于日本對(duì)亞洲出口強(qiáng)勁，導(dǎo)致第一季度業(yè)績(jī)好于預(yù)期。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2010年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)2.7%，而此前只有1.5%。歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率從0.6%小幅上升至0.7%，而美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持不變。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)保持在9.5%不變，印度增長(zhǎng)到7.3%，俄羅斯增長(zhǎng)到4.0%。雖然上半年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁，但由于歐元區(qū)主權(quán)債務(wù)問(wèn)題、中國(guó)避免經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱的能力以及經(jīng)合組織成員國(guó)失業(yè)率居高不下，人們對(duì)下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂依然存在。

預(yù)計(jì)2010年世界石油需求將增長(zhǎng)95萬(wàn)桶/日，與上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)持平。最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年上半年的需求增長(zhǎng)略高于預(yù)期。然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇步伐的預(yù)期放緩可能會(huì)影響下半年的需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。由于經(jīng)合組織的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將為負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)非經(jīng)合組織的總需求增長(zhǎng)仍將是負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。對(duì)2009年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)的估計(jì)顯示，與之前的估計(jì)相比，世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)出現(xiàn)了邊際變化，下降了150萬(wàn)桶/日。

2010年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將比上一年增加64萬(wàn)桶/日，而上一次報(bào)告的石油供應(yīng)量則上調(diào)了11萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2009年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)率仍為74萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2010年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均供應(yīng)量為483萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加48萬(wàn)桶/日。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士透露，今年5月，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為2926萬(wàn)桶，比上月增加14萬(wàn)桶。

隨著5月份產(chǎn)品需求的增長(zhǎng)以及原油成本的降低，全球煉油利潤(rùn)率上升，并鼓勵(lì)煉油廠（尤其是美國(guó)煉油廠）增加產(chǎn)量。隨著駕駛季節(jié)的開(kāi)始以及颶風(fēng)季節(jié)更加活躍的預(yù)測(cè)，汽油市場(chǎng)人氣可能進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)。不過(guò)，由于全球庫(kù)存寬裕，煉油產(chǎn)能持續(xù)偏弱，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月成品油市場(chǎng)不會(huì)領(lǐng)漲市場(chǎng)并支撐原油。

油輪市場(chǎng)在5月份混合，VLCC率下降，而SUZEMAX和AFRAAMAX增加。主要消費(fèi)者的進(jìn)口增加支持了運(yùn)價(jià)的增長(zhǎng)，而噸位供應(yīng)影響了超大型油輪行業(yè)。清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)較上月上漲3.9%，主要原因是煉油活動(dòng)增加。5月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量比上月增長(zhǎng)了29.7%。石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）的出海量略高，美國(guó)的出海量增長(zhǎng)了12.2%。

美國(guó)商業(yè)股延續(xù)上漲趨勢(shì)，5月份上漲770萬(wàn)股。該項(xiàng)目主要由增加540萬(wàn)桶的產(chǎn)品推動(dòng)，而原油庫(kù)存增加230萬(wàn)桶。目前庫(kù)存比五年平均水平高出8600萬(wàn)桶左右。4月份，日本商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存連續(xù)第二個(gè)月保持上升趨勢(shì)，增加710萬(wàn)桶。這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃已經(jīng)縮小了赤字，五年平均赤字從一個(gè)月前的7%降至2.3%。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，5月份日本商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量進(jìn)一步增加。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2009年歐佩克原油需求平均為2894萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年萎縮240萬(wàn)桶/日。2010年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求量平均為2877萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一次評(píng)估下降了70 tb/d，較上一年下降了175 tb/d。這將不會(huì)給市場(chǎng)留下更多原油供應(yīng)的空間。

The OPEC Reference Basket fell below $67/b on 25 May, the lowest level since early October2009, underscoring market volatility as uncertainties about oil demand reemerged amiddisappointing macroeconomic data and concerns about the impact of Europe’s debt crisis. TheOPEC Reference Basket averaged $74.48/b in May, down 9.5% from April while WTI front monthdropped 12% as the market turned bearish. Speculative activity on the crude futures market alsodeclined as money managers cut net long positions by almost 60% in May. 

World economic growth for this year was revised up to 3.8% from 3.5% last month. The revisionwas mainly due to Japan, where strong exports to Asia resulted in a better than expectedperformance in the first quarter. The country is now forecast to grow 2.7% in 2010, compared to aprevious 1.5%. Growth for the Euro-zone was increased slightly to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the USremained unchanged. China growth was left unchanged at 9.5%, while India was increased to 7.3%and Russia to 4.0%. While the global economy seems to be enjoying solid momentum in the firsthalf, concerns about growth in the second half remain due to Euro-zone sovereign debt problem, theability of China to avoid overheating and the still high unemployment in OECD countries. 

World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.95 mb/d in 2010, unchanged from the previousmonth’s forecast. Recent data indicates that demand growth has been slightly higher thanestimated in the first half of the year. However, an expected moderation in the pace of theeconomic recovery is likely to impact demand growth forecasts for the second half. Totaldemand growth is still expected to come from non-OECD as growth in the OECD is expected toremain negative. The estimate for 2009 world oil demand growth shows a marginal change fromthe previous assessment with a contraction of 1.5 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase in 2010 by 0.64 mb/d over the previous year,following an upward revision of 0.11 mb/d from the last report. The estimate for 2009 non-OPECsupply growth remains unchanged at 0.74 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils areexpected to average 4.83 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 0.48 mb/d over the previous year. In May,OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.26 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of0.14 mb/d over the previous month. 

A combination of growing product demand along with lower crude cost in May has lifted refiningmargins across the globe and encouraged refiners, particularly in the US, to increase throughputs.With the start of the driving season and predictions for a more active hurricane season, gasolinemarket sentiment may strengthen further. However, due to comfortable stocks and persisting sparerefinery capacity across the globe, product markets are not expected to lead the market andsupport crude over the coming months. 

The tanker market were mixed in May with VLCC rates decreasing, while Suezmax and Aframaxincreased. Higher imports by major consumers supported the increase in rates, while tonnageavailability affected the VLCC sector. Clean spot freight rates increased by 3.9% over the previousmonth, mainly due to higher refinery activities. In May, OPEC spot fixtures increased by 29.7%compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPEC were marginally higher and arrivals in the USgained 12.2%. 

US commercial stocks continued their upward trend, rising by 7.7 mb in May. The build was drivenmainly by products which increased by 5.4 mb, while crude stocks rose 2.3 mb. Inventories nowstand at around 86 mb above the five-year average. In April, commercial oil stocks in Japancontinued the upward trend for the second consecutive month, increasing by 7.1 mb. The build hasnarrowed the deficit with the five-year average to stand at 2.3% from 7% a month earlier. Preliminaryindications show Japanese total commercial oil stocks built further in May. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.94 mb/d, a contraction of 2.4 mb/dfrom the previous year. In 2010, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.77 mb/d,representing a downward revision of 70 tb/d from the previous assessment and a decline of 175 tb/dfrom the previous year. This would leave no room for additional crude oil supplies in the market.