石油輸出國組織（OPEC）4月份參考價格籃子進(jìn)一步上漲，平均為118.09美元/桶，較上月上漲8.25美元，較上年同期上漲35.76美元。中東和北非一些國家的持續(xù)發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)信心的改善支持了這種持續(xù)上升的趨勢。紐約商品交易所（NymexWTI）和洲際交易所（ICE）布倫特（Brent）的前一個月合約平均價格分別為110.04美元/桶和123.10美元/桶，這是金融危機爆發(fā)以來的最高水平。然而，由于獲利回吐引發(fā)技術(shù)性拋售，5月第一周價格經(jīng)歷了劇烈波動和大幅回調(diào)，下跌近17美元。此后，油價反彈，5月10日歐佩克的一攬子價格為111.48美元/桶。2011年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測仍保持在3.9%不變，盡管有一些抵消性的修正。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)最近出現(xiàn)了一些放緩，雖然預(yù)計將重振勢頭，但預(yù)測已從2.9%降至2.6%。受制造業(yè)持續(xù)擴張和國內(nèi)需求改善的支持，歐元區(qū)增長率從1.5%升至1.7%。在最近的悲劇事件之后，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計仍將下降0.1%。預(yù)計2011年，亞洲發(fā)展中國家對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)最大，中國增長9.0%，印度增長8.1%。由于對主權(quán)債務(wù)的擔(dān)憂、全球通脹上升導(dǎo)致利率上升以及亞洲發(fā)展中國家的潛在過熱，風(fēng)險似乎仍在下降。2011年，世界石油需求預(yù)計將增長140萬桶/日，與上一份報告基本持平，去年增長210萬桶/日。日本地震，加上美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性，使得石油需求預(yù)測處于調(diào)整模式，并給今年的預(yù)測帶來了負(fù)面風(fēng)險。與此同時，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)正以前所未有的速度增長，這對中國的消費產(chǎn)生了影響。由于需求趨勢的抵消，目前的風(fēng)險看起來幾乎是平衡的。預(yù)計2011年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)將增加60萬桶/日，2010年增長110萬桶/日。這是對上一次報告的65 tb/d的上調(diào)。對今年增長的調(diào)整主要是由于一季度實際生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)初步公布。預(yù)計2011年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為530萬桶，比上年增加了40萬桶。據(jù)二級消息來源估計，4月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2899萬桶/日，比上個月增加70噸/日。4月份，隨著輕質(zhì)餾分油需求強勁，市場情緒更加樂觀，產(chǎn)品市場獲得了桶頂?shù)闹С?。盡管美國零售價格上漲，但汽油消費量在夏季駕車季前有所改善。美國煉油廠開工減少和產(chǎn)品庫存下降，引發(fā)早盤看漲情緒，支撐油價。此外，石腦油收復(fù)了上個月的失地，一些石腦油裂解爐從維修中恢復(fù)，還有消息稱日本將在未來幾周內(nèi)重新啟動兩臺石腦油裂解爐。4月份，油輪市場經(jīng)歷了混合走勢，臟油現(xiàn)貨運價下跌，而凈油現(xiàn)貨運價上漲。較低的噸位需求和煉油廠維修推動了臟船運價的下降。清潔現(xiàn)貨運價的上升主要是由于產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的增加。4月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨固定裝置增加了10%。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）出海量減少，美國抵達(dá)量增加1%。4月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存繼續(xù)呈下降趨勢，下降了130萬桶。美國原油庫存增加890萬桶，部分抵消了產(chǎn)品價格下跌的影響，產(chǎn)品價格下跌1010萬桶。盡管有所下降，但美國商業(yè)庫存仍比五年平均水平高出1000萬桶。3月份的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度的商業(yè)石油庫存扭轉(zhuǎn)了下降趨勢，增加了200萬桶，其中原油庫存增加了590萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存則下降了390萬桶。日本石油庫存仍比一年前高出2.1%，與五年平均水平相比，赤字為5.9%。2010年，歐佩克原油需求量估計為2950萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平，同比增加40萬桶/日。2011年，預(yù)計歐佩克原油需求量平均為2990萬桶/日，比去年增加約40萬桶/日，與此前預(yù)測一致。

? The OPEC Reference Basket rose further in April to average $118.09/b, up $8.25 from the previousmonth and $35.76 from a year earlier. The continued upward trend was supported by ongoingdevelopments in some MENA countries and improving economic sentiment. The front month NymexWTI and ICE Brent contracts averaged $110.04/b and $123.10/b, respectively, which were theirhighest level since the onset of the financial crisis. However, prices experienced extreme volatilityand a sharp correction in the first week of May, dropping by almost $17, as profit-taking triggered atechnical sell-off. Since then, prices have rebounded, with the OPEC Basket standing at $111.48/bon 10 May.? The world economic growth forecast for 2011 remains unchanged at 3.9%, although there havebeen some offsetting revisions. The US economy has shown some slowdown recently and, while itis expected to regain momentum, the forecast has been reduced to 2.6% from 2.9%. Euro-zonegrowth has been increased to 1.7% from 1.5%, backed by continued expansion in themanufacturing sector and improving domestic demand. Japan’s economy is still forecast to declineby 0.1% following the recent tragic events. Developing Asia is expected to contribute the most toglobal growth in 2011, with China growing by 9.0% and India by 8.1%. Risks still appear to beskewed downward due to sovereign debt concerns, rising inflation across the globe leading to higherinterest rates and potential overheating in developing Asia.? World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2011, broadly unchanged from the previousreport, following an increase of 2.1 mb/d last year. The Japanese earthquake, along with economicuncertainty in the US is keeping oil demand estimates in an adjustment mode and is imposing adownside risk for the year’s forecasts. At the same time, China’s economy is roaring ahead of allexpectations, which has implications on the country’s consumption. As a result of the offsettingdemand trends, the risks look to be nearly balanced at the present time.? Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 1.1 mb/d in2010. This represents an upward revision of 65 tb/d over the previous report. The adjustment to thisyear’s growth was mainly due to the release of preliminary data for actual production in the firstquarter. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.3 mb/d in 2011, anincrease of 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In April, total OPEC crude oil production, according tothe secondary sources, was estimated to average 28.99 mb/d, an increase of 70 tb/d over theprevious month.?Product markets received support from the top of the barrel in April, as stronger light distillatesdemand resulted in a more positive sentiment. Gasoline consumption improved ahead of thesummer driving season, despite higher retail prices in the US. Lower refinery runs and falling productstocks in the US triggered an early bullish sentiment, supporting prices. Additionally, naphtharecovered the ground lost last month, as some naphtha crackers returned from maintenance, as wellas on news that Japan would restart two naphtha crackers over the coming weeks.? The tanker market experienced mixed movement in April with dirty spot carrier rates falling andclean spot rates seeing gains. Lower tonnage demand and refinery maintenance drove the declinein dirty carrier rates. The rise in clean spot freight rates was mainly due to increased product trade.In April, OPEC spot fixtures increased by 10%. Sailings from OPEC were lower and arrivals in theUS increased 1%.? US commercial oil inventories continued the downward trend in April, declining by 1.3 mb. Thedraw was driven by products which fell 10.1 mb, while US crude oil stocks partially offset the dropwith an increase of 8.9 mb. Despite the decline, US commercial inventories remain at 10 mb abovethe five-year average. The most recent data for March shows that commercial oil inventories inJapan reversed the downward trend, increasing by 2.0 mb with crude showing a build of 5.9 mb,while product inventories fell by 3.9 mb. Japanese oil inventories remained at 2.1% above a yearago, representing a deficit of 5.9% compared to the five-year average.? Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 29.5 mb/d, unchanged from the previous reportand an increase of 0.4 mb/d over a year earlier. In 2011, required OPEC crude is expected toaverage 29.9 mb/d, about 0.4 mb/d higher than last year and in line with the previous forecast.