2月份，歐佩克的參考價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲，自2008年9月以來首次在2月21日突破100美元/桶。由于對(duì)供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂和投機(jī)活動(dòng)的加劇，期貨市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)支撐了籃子的上漲。3月10日，該籃子價(jià)格為110.71美元/桶。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長依然強(qiáng)勁，持續(xù)改善導(dǎo)致2011年增長預(yù)期提高，2011年增長預(yù)期調(diào)整為4.0%，增幅為0.1%。向上修正的主要原因是發(fā)展中國家的健康增長。中國的預(yù)測(cè)從8.8%上升到9.0%，印度從8.0%上升到8.1%。經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）的預(yù)測(cè)再次上升至2.3%，美國為2.9%，歐元區(qū)和日本均為1.5%。通貨膨脹開始對(duì)經(jīng)合組織和發(fā)展中國家的決策者構(gòu)成挑戰(zhàn)，就經(jīng)合組織而言，這可能導(dǎo)致利率上升，從而增加償還主權(quán)債務(wù)的成本，而對(duì)發(fā)展中國家來說，針對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱的財(cái)政和貨幣工具的引入可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長水平的下降幅度超過預(yù)期。

2010年世界石油需求增長估計(jì)為180萬桶/日，2011年預(yù)計(jì)為140萬桶/日，僅比上一份報(bào)告略有上升。今年第一季度的石油需求受到北半球冬季寒冷天氣的提振。在非經(jīng)合組織，預(yù)計(jì)第二季度石油需求將保持健康水平，實(shí)現(xiàn)與第一季度相似的增長。雖然比正常情況更冷的冬天使石油需求增加，但如果目前的價(jià)格水平持續(xù)一段時(shí)間，高油價(jià)可能會(huì)抑制未來幾個(gè)月的消費(fèi)。經(jīng)合組織國家和非經(jīng)合組織國家都會(huì)感受到這種影響。

非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)在2011年將增加50萬桶/日，前一年的增長率為110萬桶/日。2011年的數(shù)字比上一次評(píng)估上升了10萬桶/日，主要是由于對(duì)歷史數(shù)據(jù)的修訂以及一些國家供應(yīng)情況的變化。預(yù)計(jì)2011年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為530萬桶，比上年增加50萬桶。二級(jí)來源顯示，2月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量增加了110 tb/d，平均為300萬桶/d。

中等餾分油市場(chǎng)的持續(xù)勢(shì)頭得到了工業(yè)部門的進(jìn)一步支持，推動(dòng)了全球范圍內(nèi)更強(qiáng)勁的柴油需求。這抵消了桶頂?shù)目吹榫w，并保持了產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的健康。由于季節(jié)性維護(hù)導(dǎo)致煉油廠運(yùn)行減少，強(qiáng)勁的中間餾分油需求可能在未來幾個(gè)月繼續(xù)支持煉油廠利潤率。

油輪市場(chǎng)人氣增強(qiáng)，大多數(shù)航線的即期運(yùn)價(jià)都在上升。油價(jià)上漲受到遠(yuǎn)東假期和天氣狀況等因素的支撐，盡管燃料價(jià)格上漲，煉油廠也進(jìn)行了一些維修，但仍有上漲。石油輸出國組織的固定裝置增加了960 tb/d，平均為1190萬桶/d，幾乎相當(dāng)于全球固定裝置的三分之二。據(jù)初步估計(jì)，歐佩克的出海量增加了208tb/d，達(dá)到2400萬b/d。

美國2月份的商業(yè)庫存減少了約2380萬件，與上月的庫存量相反。庫存減少的原因是產(chǎn)品大幅下降，下降了2700萬桶，而原油庫存增加了320萬桶。2月美國商業(yè)石油庫存仍高于歷史正常水平，為105110萬桶。在日本，最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1月份商業(yè)石油庫存減少了240萬桶，其中原油庫存減少了260萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存則略有增加，為30萬桶。2月份的初步跡象顯示，日本商業(yè)石油庫存進(jìn)一步下降820萬桶。

預(yù)計(jì)2010年歐佩克原油需求為2930萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，比上一年增加約30萬桶/日。2011年，對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到平均2980萬桶/日，與之前的評(píng)估持平，比去年增加約50萬桶/日。

?The OPEC Reference Basket increased further in February, moving above $100/b on21 February for the first time since September 2008. The upward movement in the Basket wassupported by the strong performance of the futures market, which surged on supply fears andincreased speculative activities. The Basket stood at $110.71/b on 10 March. 

? World economic growth remains robust and continuing improvements have led to improvedgrowth expectations for 2011, which have been adjusted 0.1% higher to 4.0%. The main reasonfor the upward revision is healthy growth in the developing countries. China’s forecast has beenincreased from 8.8% to 9.0% and India from 8.0% to 8.1%. The forecast for the OECD remainsunchanged at 2.3%, with the US at 2.9% and both the Euro-zone and Japan at 1.5%. Inflation isbeginning to pose a challenge for policy makers in both the OECD and the developing countries.In the case of the OECD, this might lead to higher interest rates, which could increase the costof servicing sovereign debt, while for developing countries the introduction of fiscal andmonetary tools targeting overheating could result in a larger-than-expected decline in growthlevels. 

? World oil demand growth is estimated at 1.8 mb/d in 2010 and forecast at 1.4 mb/d in 2011,representing only minor upward adjustments from the previous report. Oil demand in the firstquarter of this year was boosted by cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In thenon-OECD, second quarter oil demand is expected to maintain its healthy level, achievingsimilar growth to that of the first quarter. While the colder-than-normal winter has strengthenedoil demand, high oil prices could dampen consumption over the coming months if current pricelevels persist for an extended period. This effect would be felt both in the OECD and non-OECDcountries. 

? Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.5 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 1.1 mb/din the previous year. The 2011 figure represents an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d from theprevious assessment, mainly due to revisions to historical data as well as changes in the supplyprofile of some countries. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average5.3 mb/d in 2011, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous year. In February, total OPEC crudeoil production, according to secondary sources, increased by 110 tb/d to average 30.0 mb/d. 

? The sustained momentum in the middle distillates market received further support from theindustrial sector, contributing to stronger diesel demand across the globe. This offset the bearishsentiment in the top of the barrel and kept product markets healthy. Strong middle distillatedemand, amid reduced refinery runs due to seasonal maintenance, is likely to continue tosupport refinery margins over the coming months. 

? Tanker market sentiment strengthened, with spot freight rates increasing on most routes. Thegains were backed by factors such as holidays in the Far East and weather conditions, andoccurred despite higher bunker fuel prices and some refinery maintenance. OPEC fixturesdecreased by 960 tb/d to average 11.9 mb/d, which corresponds to almost two thirds of globalfixtures. OPEC sailings increased by 208 tb/d to 24.0 mb/d, according to preliminary estimates. 

? US commercial inventories fell by around 23.8 mb in February, reversing the build seen lastmonth. The stock draw was driven by the substantial drop in products, which declined by27.0 mb, while crude inventories saw a build of 3.2 mb. US commercial oil stocks in Februaryremained above the historical norm at 1051.1 mb. In Japan, the most recent data shows thatcommercial oil inventories declined by 2.4 mb in January, with crude seeing a draw of 2.6 mbwhile products experienced a slight build of 0.3 mb. Preliminary indications for February showthat Japanese commercial oil stocks fell a further 8.2 mb. 

? The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 29.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport and about 0.3 mb/d higher than the year before. In 2011, the demand for OPEC crude isexpected to average 29.8 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment and an increase ofaround 0.5 mb/d over last year.