今年5月，歐佩克（OPEC）一籃子參考原油價(jià)格上漲近14%，至平均56.98美元/桶，上漲6.78美元/桶，創(chuàng)下7個(gè)月來最高月度平均水平。市場的動(dòng)力是經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)體的改善，為石油需求的復(fù)蘇帶來了希望。美國煉油廠的問題隨著駕駛季節(jié)的開始而出現(xiàn)，同時(shí)隱含的每周需求達(dá)到了兩年來的最高點(diǎn)。美元跌至五個(gè)月低點(diǎn)，股市持續(xù)反彈，也對市場產(chǎn)生影響。由于投資機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測，隨著美元走軟，價(jià)格上漲將刺激資金流入能源期貨，6月份該籃子繼續(xù)走高。6月10日，該籃子達(dá)到70.87美元/桶。

2009年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率小幅上調(diào)0.1%，下降1.3%。這種微小的變化主要是由于中國和印度的上調(diào)。最近，這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的發(fā)展情況一直在改善，這為全年向上調(diào)整提供了理由。中國對2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的預(yù)測從6.5%上升到7.0%，而印度則從5.0%上升到5.7%。經(jīng)合組織成員國的預(yù)測仍保持在-3.8%不變，美國GDP預(yù)計(jì)下降2.8%，歐元區(qū)下降4.2%，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然非常疲弱，預(yù)計(jì)收縮6.4%。雖然亞洲發(fā)展中國家看到了一些積極的勢頭，但經(jīng)合組織成員國采取的措施是否能夠產(chǎn)生可持續(xù)的復(fù)蘇仍有待觀察。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2008年世界石油需求下降了40萬桶/日，此前的評估下調(diào)了10萬桶/日。大部分修改發(fā)生在第四季度。2009年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)負(fù)增長160萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告基本持平。從季度來看，今年上半年出現(xiàn)了下調(diào)，而預(yù)計(jì)年底需求將逐步復(fù)蘇。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)將下降180萬桶/日，而非經(jīng)合組織則應(yīng)看到約20萬桶/日的小幅增長。

2008年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量的估計(jì)數(shù)與上一次評估結(jié)果持平，下降了20萬桶/日。2009年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將比上一年增加20萬桶/日，與上一次評估結(jié)果基本持平。預(yù)計(jì)2009年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為470萬桶，比上一年增加了40萬桶。5月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為2827萬桶/日，比上月增加135噸/日。

美國的汽油庫存、較低的煉油廠運(yùn)行和產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量為產(chǎn)品市場提供了支持，提高了煉油利潤率，特別是在大西洋盆地，由于餾分油市場持續(xù)看跌，加之市場預(yù)期汽油需求在駕駛季節(jié)將缺乏足夠的動(dòng)力，預(yù)計(jì)汽油市場近期的積極發(fā)展不會(huì)在未來幾個(gè)月持續(xù)下去。歐佩克5月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月增長21%。來自歐佩克的航程幾乎更高。5月份油輪市場反彈，阿芙拉型油輪表現(xiàn)良好。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和石油輸出調(diào)整的影響下，超大型油輪行業(yè)繼續(xù)遭受最大的損失。清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)平均上漲37%。在達(dá)到高位后，由于原油期貨市場的期貨結(jié)構(gòu)收窄，海上儲(chǔ)油量在接近月底時(shí)失去了動(dòng)力。

5月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存繼續(xù)保持上升趨勢，增長1450萬桶，達(dá)到1102萬桶，主要是由于其他產(chǎn)品，原油和汽油庫存分別下降1100萬桶和900萬桶。歐洲（歐盟15國加上挪威）石油庫存在5月份增加了700萬桶，達(dá)到五年平均水平的上限，這一盈余歸因于石油產(chǎn)品。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，日本商業(yè)石油庫存4月份進(jìn)一步下跌170萬股，5月份上漲約700萬股。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2008年歐佩克原油需求平均為3080萬桶/日，較上年下降50萬桶/日。2009年，對歐佩克原油的平均需求預(yù)計(jì)為2860萬桶/日，較上年同期下降220萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged almost 14% to average $56.98/b in May for a gain of $6.78/b,the highest monthly average in seven months. The market was driven by improving economicsentiment lending hope for a recovery in petroleum demand. Refinery problems in the US emergedwith the start of the driving season while implied weekly demand reached a two-year high. The fall ofthe US dollar to a five-month low and the continued rally in equities also impacted the market. TheBasket continued to move higher in June as investment institutions forecast higher prices inspiringinflows into energy futures as the dollar weakened. The Basket reached $70.87/b on 10 June. 

Growth for the world economy in 2009 has been revised up slightly by 0.1% to show a decline of1.3%. This minor change was due to upward revisions mainly in China and India. Developments inthese economies have been improving lately, justifying an upward revision for the full year. China’sgrowth forecast for 2009 was increased from 6.5% to 7.0% while India was revised up from 5.0% to5.7%. The forecast for the OECD countries remains unchanged at minus 3.8% with US GDPexpected to decline by 2.8%, the Euro-zone by 4.2%, and Japan remaining very weak with anexpected contraction of 6.4%. While developing Asia has seen some positive momentum, it remainsto be seen whether the measures taken by OECD countries are able to produce a sustainable recovery.

 World oil demand is estimated to have fallen by 0.4 mb/d in 2008 following a downwardrevision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment. The bulk of the revision occurred in thefourth quarter. In 2009, world oil demand is expected to see continued negative growth of1.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous report. On a quarterly basis, the first half of theyear has seen a downward revision, while a gradual recovery in demand is expected by the end ofthe year. OECD is projected to fall by 1.8 mb/d, while non-OECD should see slight growth ofaround 0.2 mb/d. 

The estimate for non-OPEC oil supply in 2008 remains unchanged from the previous assessment,showing a decline of 0.2 mb/d. In 2009, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.2 mb/dfrom the previous year, broadly unchanged from the previous assessment. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are expected to average 4.7 mb/d in 2009, an increase of 0.4 mb/d over the previousyear. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 28.27 mb/d, an increase of 135 tb/d over theprevious month.

 A combination of the gasoline stock draws in the US, lower refinery runs and product outputs haveprovided support for product markets, lifting refining margins especially in the Atlantic Basin.However, due to persisting bearish momentum in the distillate market and expectations that gasolinedemand over the driving season will lack sufficient strength, the recent positive developments in thegasoline markets are not expected to persist over the coming months.OPEC spot fixtures rose in May by 21% compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPEC weremarginally higher. The tanker market rebounded in May with a good performance for the Aframaxsector. The VLCC sector continued to suffer the most from the global economic crisis and OPECoutput adjustments. Clean spot freight rates rose by 37% on average. After reaching a high level,storage at sea lost momentum towards the end of the month due to the narrowing of the contangostructure in the crude futures market. 

US commercial oil stocks continued their upward trend in May rising 14.5 mb to stand at 1,102 mb.The build was due mainly to other products, as crude and gasoline stocks fell by 11 mb and 9 mbrespectively. European (EU-15 plus Norway) oil stocks rose 7 mb in May to stand at the upper end ofthe five-year average, the surplus attributed to products. Japan’s commercial oil stocks fell a further1.7 mb in April before gaining around 7 mb in May, according to preliminary data. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is estimated to average 30.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.5 mb/d fromthe previous year. In 2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, a drop of2.2 mb/d from a year earlier.