自2004年夏天以來，日本和歐洲似乎首次開始參與世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。日本的前景尤其令人鼓舞，因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)和企業(yè)的需求似乎已經(jīng)在2005年取得了良好的開端。歐洲的跡象較為溫和，但德國(guó)的早期數(shù)據(jù)至少表明，改善投資需求和消費(fèi)支出應(yīng)能在第一季度產(chǎn)生有意義的GDP增長(zhǎng)。

然而，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要增長(zhǎng)引擎仍然是美國(guó)和中國(guó)。美國(guó)2月份消費(fèi)和投資支出繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，第一季度可能增長(zhǎng)約4%。中國(guó)的數(shù)據(jù)證實(shí)，1月和2月零售額增速略有放緩，但工業(yè)生產(chǎn)增速加快，同比增長(zhǎng)至16.9%。

2005年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的可持續(xù)性存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中國(guó)當(dāng)局可能采取直接行動(dòng)，以防止經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能面臨通脹上升和利率上升。3月份油價(jià)進(jìn)一步上漲，消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)消化此類上漲的能力是進(jìn)一步的不確定性。今年3月，美國(guó)的年度貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大至580億美元，美元再次面臨壓力。

盡管2005年開局合理，但考慮到今年晚些時(shí)候的不確定性，日本和歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)略有下調(diào)。2005年，日本和歐元區(qū)的GDP預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)1.4%，低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的1.6%。美國(guó)對(duì)2005年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)保持在3.4%不變，而中國(guó)對(duì)2005年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的預(yù)測(cè)則略有上升，達(dá)到8.2%。根據(jù)這些調(diào)整，2005年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)率下降了0.1%至4.1%。

歐佩克2月份的參考價(jià)格平均為41.68美元/桶，比上個(gè)月上漲1.44美元或3.5%。本月頭兩周，美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存增加，預(yù)計(jì)北半球天氣將轉(zhuǎn)暖，第二周該籃子指數(shù)跌至平均40.12美元/桶。然而，北部晚些時(shí)候的寒流觸發(fā)了aturnaround，該籃子在第四周經(jīng)歷了上漲，平均價(jià)格達(dá)到43.95美元/桶。3月份，該籃子在第一周大幅飆升至平均46.59美元/桶，隨后在第二周繼續(xù)上漲，在3月16日創(chuàng)下50.78美元/桶的新高。

大西洋兩岸的冰凍天氣推高了中間餾分油產(chǎn)品的現(xiàn)貨和期貨價(jià)格，鞏固了2005年需求增加預(yù)期引發(fā)的原油價(jià)格新趨勢(shì)。同樣，亞洲地區(qū)對(duì)輕量化產(chǎn)品的強(qiáng)勁需求，以及中國(guó)為補(bǔ)充產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存而購(gòu)買的預(yù)期復(fù)蘇，都推高了產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和煉油廠利潤(rùn)率。一旦北半球的冰凍天氣結(jié)束，考慮到美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存的絕對(duì)和相對(duì)水平，預(yù)計(jì)煉油廠利潤(rùn)將失去近期的大幅上漲，并對(duì)原油市場(chǎng)造成一定壓力。不過，由于煉油廠產(chǎn)能收緊，一旦發(fā)生嚴(yán)重的煉油廠停產(chǎn)，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的人氣可能迅速改變。

2月份，歐佩克地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨租船量增加了30萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到1580萬(wàn)桶/日。這一增長(zhǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力與歐佩克產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)一致，是中東國(guó)家。來自歐佩克國(guó)家的船運(yùn)量也增加了30萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到246萬(wàn)桶/日。超大型油輪行業(yè)的原油運(yùn)價(jià)從1月份的低點(diǎn)大幅飆升，特別是在中東航線上，由于中國(guó)租船人在農(nóng)歷新年慶典結(jié)束后的回歸，原油運(yùn)價(jià)翻了一番多。其他部門表現(xiàn)出混合模式，特別是阿芙拉型油輪，由于即將進(jìn)行的季節(jié)性煉油維護(hù)，該油輪在地中海地區(qū)受到嚴(yán)重影響。由于寒冷天氣持續(xù)的健康活動(dòng)，地中海地區(qū)所有航線的產(chǎn)品運(yùn)價(jià)均下降，但地中海地區(qū)除外。

由于2004年的全部初步數(shù)據(jù)首次可用，盡管仍需作一些小的調(diào)整，但世界石油總需求增長(zhǎng)率略有上調(diào)，從0.07百萬(wàn)桶/日上調(diào)至2.62百萬(wàn)桶/日。這使得2004年世界石油需求估計(jì)為82.12百萬(wàn)桶/日。盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率略有下調(diào)至4.1%，經(jīng)合組織幾個(gè)國(guó)家和中國(guó)的強(qiáng)勁消費(fèi)再次導(dǎo)致了全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的向上調(diào)整。據(jù)估計(jì)，2005年世界石油總需求增長(zhǎng)率為186萬(wàn)桶/日，同比增長(zhǎng)2.26%，導(dǎo)致本年度全球平均需求為8398萬(wàn)桶/日。

根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克2月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為2956萬(wàn)桶/日，比1月份的修訂數(shù)字增加了24萬(wàn)桶/日。非歐佩克國(guó)家2004年的石油供應(yīng)量估計(jì)為4974萬(wàn)桶/日，比2003年的4863萬(wàn)桶/日高出11萬(wàn)桶/日。2005年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到5080萬(wàn)桶/日，比2004年的估計(jì)增加106萬(wàn)桶/日。2004年FSU的凈出口量估計(jì)為729萬(wàn)桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)2005年將增至782萬(wàn)桶/日。

1月28日至2月25日期間，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存呈季節(jié)性下降趨勢(shì)，下降670萬(wàn)桶，或0.24萬(wàn)桶/日，至951萬(wàn)桶。盡管3月11日的最新每周數(shù)據(jù)顯示了類似的趨勢(shì)，但仍比去年高出402萬(wàn)桶。16歐元（歐盟加挪威）原油和汽油庫(kù)存的石油庫(kù)存已登記建造，而其他主要產(chǎn)品則經(jīng)歷了平倉(cāng)。16歐元石油庫(kù)存為107710萬(wàn)歐元，較一個(gè)月前的水平下降540萬(wàn)歐元或0.19萬(wàn)歐元/日。日本商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量連續(xù)第二個(gè)月出現(xiàn)季節(jié)性下降，下降510萬(wàn)桶或0.16萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到18480萬(wàn)桶。

For the first time since the summer of 2004, Japan and Europe appear to have begun to share in the growth of the worldeconomy. The outlook for Japan is particularly encouraging as both domestic and corporate demand look to have made agood start to 2005. The indications for Europe are more modest but early data for Germany, at least, suggest that improvinginvestment demand and consumer spending should produce meaningful GDP growth in the first quarter.

  Nevertheless the main growth engines of the world economy remain the USA and China. US consumer and investmentspending continued to grow strongly in February and the first quarter may see growth of about 4%. Data for China confirmsa slight slowdown in the growth rates for retail sales in January and February but industrial production growth accelerated,rising to 16.9% year-on-year. 

There are risks on the sustainability of world economic growth in 2005. Chinese authorities may take direct action toprevent overheating and the US economy may face rising inflation and higher interest rates. Oil prices rose further in Marchand the capacity of consumers and companies to absorb such increases is a further uncertainty. The US trade deficit inJanuary widened to $58 bn and the dollar came under renewed pressure in March. 

Despite the reasonable start to 2005, growth forecasts for Japan and the Euro-zone have been reduced slightly to takeaccount of uncertainties later in the year. GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% in Japan and the Euro-zone in 2005, down fromthe earlier forecast of 1.6% for both. The US growth forecast for 2005 is unchanged at 3.4%, while the 2005 growth rateforecast for China has been increased slightly to 8.2%. Reflecting these adjustments, the forecast growth rate for the worldeconomy in 2005 has fallen by 0.1% to 4.1%. 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $41.68/b in February, an increase of $1.44 or 3.5% over the pervious month. For thefirst two weeks of the month, the Basket dropped to average $40.12/b in the second week, as US crude oil stocks saw buildsand warmer weather was forecast for the Northern Hemisphere. However, a late cold snap in the north triggered aturnaround as the Basket experienced gains in the fourth week to average $43.95/b. In March, the Basket saw a hefty jumpto average $46.59/b in the first week before continuing to rise further in the second to stand at a new record high of$50.78/b on 16 March. 

Icy weather on both sides of the Atlantic lifted physical and futures prices of middle distillate products and consolidated thenew trend in crude prices triggered by the expectation of higher demand in 2005. Similarly, strong regional demand forlight products and the expectation of a revival in Chinese buying to replenish product stocks have boosted product pricesand refinery margins in Asia. Once the wave of freezing temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere comes to an end andgiven the comfortable level of US gasoline stocks in both absolute and relative terms, it is expected that refinery marginswill lose their recent sharp gains and put some pressure on the crude market. However, due to tightening refinery capacity,sentiment in the product market could change rapidly in the event of a serious refinery outage.

  OPEC area spot chartering rose by 0.3 mb/d to 15.8 mb/d in February. The main driver behind this growth, in line with theincrease in OPEC’s output, was Middle Eastern countries. Sailings from OPEC countries also increased by 0.3 mb/d to24.6 mb/d. Crude oil freight rates in the VLCC sector surged sharply from the lows seen in January, especially on theMiddle East/East route where they more than doubled, driven by the return of Chinese charterers following the end of theLunar New Year celebration. Other sectors showed mixed patterns, especially the Aframax which was heavily affected inthe Mediterranean region due to the upcoming seasonal refining maintenance. Product freight rates declined on all routesexcept in the Mediterranean region as a result of healthy activity sustained by the cold weather. 

With full preliminary data for 2004 available for the first time — although still subject to minor adjustments — total worldoil demand growth for the year has been slightly revised upwards by 0.07 mb/d to 2.62 mb/d. This leaves estimated worldoil demand for 2004 at 82.12 mb/d. Although economic growth has been revised slightly down to 4.1%, solid consumptionin several OECD countries and China has led once again to upward adjustment in global oil demand growth. Total worldoil demand growth for 2005 is now estimated at 1.86 mb/d which translates into y-o-y growth of 2.26 % resulting inaverage global demand of 83.98 mb/d for the current year. 

OPEC crude oil production in February, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 29.56 mb/d, an increase of 0.24 mb/dfrom the revised January figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 49.74 mb/d, which is 1.11 mb/d over the48.63 mb/d estimated 2003 figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 50.80 mb/d, an increase of 1.06 mb/dover the 2004 estimate. Net FSU exports for 2004 are estimated at 7.29 mb/d and are expected to rise to 7.82 mb/d in 2005. 

US commercial oil stocks showed a seasonal draw pattern decreasing by 6.7 mb or 0.24 mb/d to 951 mb during the period28 January-25 February. Although the latest weekly data of March 11 indicates similar trend, it is still 40.2 mb above lastyear’s level. Oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) for crude oil and gasoline inventories registered builds while othermain products experienced draws. Eur-16 oil stocks stood at 1,077.1 mb, a decline of 5.4 mb or 0.19 mb/d from the levelobserved a month ago. Total commercial oil stocks in Japan continued to see seasonal draws for the second consecutivemonth, losing 5.1 mb or 0.16 mb/d to stand at 184.8 mb.