盡管歐佩克產(chǎn)量增加，出口增加，但6月份歐佩克參考價(jià)格達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的128.34美元/桶，同比增長8.94美元/桶或7.5%。價(jià)格上漲主要是由于地緣政治緊張局勢升級(jí)，金融市場投機(jī)加劇了這種緊張局勢。由于墨西哥灣的風(fēng)暴威脅，持續(xù)的美國美元波動(dòng)和供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂也推高了價(jià)格。在7月的第一周，中東地區(qū)地緣政治緊張局勢的升級(jí)又增加了10.13美元/桶的價(jià)格，7月14日的平均價(jià)格為139.81美元/桶。

2009年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測為3.9%，略低于2008年4.0%的修正預(yù)測。經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)今年將增長1.8%對(duì)1.9%，而發(fā)展中國家的增長可能從5.9%下降到5.6%，主要原因是拉丁美洲增長放緩。預(yù)計(jì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將實(shí)現(xiàn)9.2%的增長，比2008年下降0.7%，而印度的增長率幾乎保持在7.5%不變。繼第一季度的最終數(shù)據(jù)稍高，第二季度的預(yù)期表現(xiàn)有所好轉(zhuǎn)之后，2008年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率修正為1.5%，增幅為0.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。然而，隨著勞動(dòng)力市場的疲軟、消費(fèi)者信心的下降以及金融市場系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重現(xiàn)，今年下半年的前景已經(jīng)惡化。第二季度，即使在德國，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的減速已經(jīng)變得明顯，但歐洲央行并沒有阻止將利率提高到4.25%。在日本，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂正在上升，預(yù)計(jì)第二季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將為負(fù)。在許多正在合并的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，為控制不斷上升的通貨膨脹而采取的更為緊縮的貨幣政策可能會(huì)抑制今年剩余時(shí)間乃至2009年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

據(jù)預(yù)測，2009年世界石油需求將增長90萬桶/日，比2008年的預(yù)計(jì)增長率下降了10萬桶/日。非經(jīng)合組織的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)為120萬桶/日，占明年需求增長的全部，經(jīng)合組織的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和高油價(jià)一直在影響石油需求，并將在明年繼續(xù)影響石油需求。預(yù)計(jì)2009年交通運(yùn)輸將成為關(guān)鍵增長部門。今年，世界石油需求量修正了10萬桶/日，達(dá)到86.81萬桶/日，增長了10萬桶/日。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)放緩和油價(jià)上漲，第二季度經(jīng)合組織的石油產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)將進(jìn)一步下降，而油價(jià)自最初預(yù)測以來已經(jīng)翻了一番。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）特別是美國的運(yùn)輸燃料需求出現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)勁下降。

2009年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長90萬桶/日，達(dá)到5100萬桶/日。巴西、美國、俄羅斯、阿塞拜疆、哈薩克斯坦、加拿大和澳大利亞預(yù)計(jì)將是明年增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)者。墨西哥、英國和諾威預(yù)計(jì)將經(jīng)歷最大跌幅。預(yù)計(jì)2009年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到550萬桶/日，比今年大幅增長約70萬桶/日。2008，非歐佩克供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加0.6 Mb/d，這意味著從上次評(píng)估中大約112噸T/D的向下修正，主要是由于巴西、俄羅斯和墨西哥的產(chǎn)量較低。6月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為3230萬桶，略高于上月。

尤其是在美國，汽油需求的放緩，加上蒸餾油市場的寬松和昂貴的原油價(jià)格，給全球煉油經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來了壓力。這些趨勢的持續(xù)可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)煉油廠減產(chǎn)或比平時(shí)更早開始季節(jié)性維修，這將削減原油需求。這可能導(dǎo)致未來幾個(gè)月原油庫存增加，對(duì)今年下半年的原油價(jià)格構(gòu)成壓力。如果未來幾個(gè)月歐佩克或非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)中斷，這種看法可能會(huì)改變。在不久的將來，由于美國墨西哥灣沿岸可能出現(xiàn)的活躍颶風(fēng)季節(jié)，產(chǎn)品市場的主要不確定因素是煉油廠可能停工。

歐佩克6月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量比上個(gè)月增加了10%，達(dá)到平均1450萬桶/日，原因是煉油廠從維修中恢復(fù)，中東地區(qū)的原油進(jìn)入市場。據(jù)估計(jì)，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的出海量已增至平均233萬桶/日。隨著進(jìn)口的增加，上個(gè)月抵達(dá)美國的人數(shù)有所增加。超大型油輪市場保持穩(wěn)定，因?yàn)槌笮陀洼喌漠a(chǎn)量止跌。6月份清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)強(qiáng)勁，所有報(bào)告航線的運(yùn)價(jià)都有所上升。

截至6月底，美國商業(yè)石油總庫存增長了660萬桶，達(dá)到97500萬桶。成品油庫存保持穩(wěn)定，特別是運(yùn)輸燃料，而原油庫存進(jìn)一步下降900萬桶。今年上半年，美國商業(yè)股僅增長了1000萬日元，而今年這個(gè)時(shí)候，美國商業(yè)股的典型規(guī)模為2800萬英鎊。建造速度放緩的主要原因是原油進(jìn)口下降，這是由于非歐佩克國家的航行量下降，盡管同期歐佩克的產(chǎn)量強(qiáng)勁增長。相比之下，歐盟15國加上挪威的石油庫存總量下降了860萬桶，但仍處于五年期的上限。5月份，日本商業(yè)石油庫存繼續(xù)上升，超過900萬桶，自去年10月以來首次突破17800萬桶。這座建筑是由于原油價(jià)格上漲了800萬英鎊。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2008年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3200萬桶/日，比上一年下降了90噸/日。2009年，對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為3120萬桶/日，比上一年減少710噸/日。

Despite increased OPEC production and higher exports, the OPEC Reference Basket reached a record high of $128.34/bin June, representing an increase of $8.94/b or 7.5%. The jump in prices was mainly due to an escalation in geopoliticaltensions which has been exacerbated by financial market speculation. The continued US dollar fluctuations and supplyconcerns due to a storm threat in the Gulf of Mexico have also boosted prices. In the first week of July, the escalation ofgeopolitical tensions in the Mideast added another $10.13/b. The Basket averaged $139.81/b on 14 July. 

World economy in 2009 is forecast at 3.9%, slightly lower than the revised 4.0% estimate for 2008. The OECD region isforecast to grow at 1.8% versus 1.9% this year, while developing countries growth may fall to 5.6% from 5.9%, mainlydue to slower Latin American growth. China is seen to achieve 9.2% growth, a drop of 0.7 % below 2008, while India’sgrowth is almost unchanged at 7.5%. Following slightly higher final figures for the first quarter and signs of a betterthan-expectedperformance in the second, US growth in 2008 was revised up by 0.3 points to 1.5%. However, theoutlook for the second half of this year has worsened amidst weakening labour markets, falling consumer confidenceand remerging systemic risks in the financial markets. Decelerating economic activity was already becoming noticeablein the Euro-zone in the second quarter, even in Germany, but the ECB was not deterred from raising interest rates to4.25%. In Japan, fears of recession are rising and growth in the second quarter is expected to be negative. In manyemerging economies, tighter monetary policies introduced to reign in rising inflation may dampen growth for the rest ofthe year and into 2009. 

World oil demand in 2009 is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d, which represents a decline of 0.1 mb/d from estimatedgrowth in 2008. Oil demand in the non-OECD is expected at 1.2 mb/d, accounting for all of next year’s demand growth.The economic slowdown and high pump prices in OECD have been impacting oil demand and will continue to do sonext year. Transport is expected to be the key growth sector in 2009. For this year, world oil demand has been reviseddown by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 86.81 mb/d, representing growth of 1.0 mb/d. Consumption of petroleum productsexperienced further declines in OECD in the second quarter due to slower economic activity and higher oil prices, whichhave doubled since the initial forecast. Transport fuel demand in the OECD and particularly the US has showed a strongdecline. 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2009 is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d to reach 51.0 mb/d. Brazil, USA, Russia, Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth. Mexico, UK, andNorway are expected to experience the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to reach5.5 mb/d in 2009, indicating a significant increase of around 0.7 mb/d over the current year. In 2008, non-OPEC supplyis expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d, which represents a downward revision of around 112 tb/d from the last assessment,primarily due to lower output from Brazil, Russia, and Mexico. In June, OPEC crude output averaged 32.3 mb/d,slightly higher than in the previous month.

  Slowing demand for gasoline particularly in the US, combined with an easing in the distillate markets and costly crudehave exerted pressure on refining economics across the world. The continuation of these trends may encourage refinersto cut throughputs or begin seasonal maintenance earlier than usual, which would trim crude demand. This could lead tofurther crude stock-builds in the coming months, putting pressure on crude prices in the latter part of the year. Theseperceptions may change if supply disruptions occur either in OPEC or non-OPEC producers over the next months. Themain wild card for the product market in the near future would be possible refinery outages due to a potential activehurricane season in the US Gulf Coast. 

OPEC spot fixtures increased by 10% in June from the previous month to average 14.5 mb/d as refineries returned frommaintenance and extra Middle East barrels came onto the market. OPEC sailings are estimated to have increased toaverage 23.33 mb/d. Arrivals in the US rose last month as imports increased. The VLCC market remained steady as theextra barrels halted the decline. Clean tanker freight rates were robust in June with rates increasing on all reportedroutes. 

US total commercial oil stocks rose 6.6 mb to stand at 975 mb at end-June. Product stocks remained comfortable,particularly transport fuels, while crude oil inventories fell a further 9 mb. US commercial stocks increased by only10 mb in the first half of this year, compared to a typical build of 28 mb during this time of year. The slower build wasprimarily due to the decline in crude imports, resulting from lower non-OPEC sailings despite a strong increase inOPEC production over the same period. In contrast, EU-15 plus Norway total oil inventories fell 8.6 mb but stayedwithin the upper end of the five-year range. Japan’s commercial oil stocks continued their upward trend in May, addingover 9 mb to move above 178 mb for the first time since last October. The build was attributed to crude oil whichjumped 8 mb.

  The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, a decline of 90 tb/d over the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.2 mb/d or 710 tb/d lower than in the previous year.