今年4月，歐佩克的參考價格籃子創(chuàng)下歷史新高，較上月上漲6.13美元或近7%，至105.20美元/桶。中東地緣政治發(fā)展和西非和歐洲供應(yīng)中斷導(dǎo)致價格上漲。美元走軟和經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性加劇了市場波動，同時需求預(yù)測大幅下調(diào)，中國需求健康跡象抵消了下調(diào)的影響。5月份，對地緣政治趨勢和罷工相關(guān)干擾的看漲勢頭持續(xù)。今年5月，該籃子價格升至略低于120美元/桶，隨后在5月14日跌至118.78美元/桶。2008年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率預(yù)計(jì)為3.9%，與上個月持平，有跡象表明信貸危機(jī)可能正在緩解。日本的預(yù)測略有上升，而歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測略有下降。美國的預(yù)測不變，為1.1%。從狹義的技術(shù)意義上講，美國還沒有陷入衰退——第一季度美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的預(yù)增數(shù)據(jù)仍然顯示出正增長，盡管年增長率僅為0.6%，主要原因是出口持續(xù)走強(qiáng)和庫存增加。美國4月份的就業(yè)人數(shù)連續(xù)第四個月下降，但2萬個就業(yè)崗位的減少比2008年第一季度平均每月8萬個崗位的減少幅度要小得多。PMI服務(wù)業(yè)指數(shù)也意外上揚(yáng)，三個月來首次升至50以上?？傮w而言，好于預(yù)期的數(shù)據(jù)和美聯(lián)儲暈船周期即將結(jié)束的跡象，幫助美元從對歐元和日元的低點(diǎn)回升。通脹繼續(xù)困擾著中國、印度和其他新興市場，可能會抑制未來幾個月的增長。4月份，世界石油需求增長主要是在非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)，正如預(yù)期的那樣。經(jīng)合組織的石油需求非常疲軟，盡管整個歐洲冬季的產(chǎn)品需求有所改善。美國石油消費(fèi)大幅下降，原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長緩慢，冬季天氣溫暖。預(yù)計(jì)第二季度石油需求增長將經(jīng)歷典型的季節(jié)性低消費(fèi)。此外，由于預(yù)計(jì)美國的汽油需求將減弱，今年的夏季駕車季節(jié)不太可能顯示出正常的年增長率。2008年世界石油需求年增長率預(yù)計(jì)為120萬桶/日，平均為8695萬桶/日，較上月略有下降。預(yù)計(jì)非經(jīng)合組織國家（主要是中國、中東、印度和拉丁美洲）將占需求增長的全部。預(yù)計(jì)美國北部的需求將持平，而其他經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將下降，原因是第二季度運(yùn)輸燃料需求減弱。預(yù)計(jì)2008年非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)量平均增長70萬桶/日，較上月略有下降。對墨西哥、挪威、英國、丹麥、澳大利亞、新西蘭、巴西和俄國的向下修正，部分被印度、敘利亞和乍得的上調(diào)所抵消。2007年和2008年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的增長分別為34萬桶/日和54萬桶/日。今年4月，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量3170萬桶，較上月減少393噸，因尼日利亞和伊拉克的原油生產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)中斷。美國的汽油庫存以及歐洲和亞洲緊張的餾出油市場支撐了產(chǎn)品市場，提升了全球煉油利潤率。當(dāng)前成品油市場的情緒可能會進(jìn)一步加劇，隨著駕駛季節(jié)的臨近，為原油價格提供支撐。不過，由于汽油石（尤其是美國）相對舒適，預(yù)計(jì)未來幾個月煉油利潤率不會大幅提升。同時，由于下游的技術(shù)限制阻礙了煉油廠模式向有利于中間餾分油生產(chǎn)的任何重大轉(zhuǎn)變，目前桶體中間部件的緊繃狀況可能會持續(xù)下去，在未來幾個月內(nèi)支撐市場。4月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量增加了0.58百萬桶/日，平均為1350百萬桶/日。受噸位需求改善的影響，中東東部的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量和全球供應(yīng)量都有所增加，而中東西部的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量則有所下降。4月份，歐佩克航線保持穩(wěn)定，只有小幅下降，盡管月底租船活動增加，推高了即期運(yùn)價，表明未來一個月全球航線可能增加。由于噸位需求不斷增長，4月份所有報(bào)告航線的原油油輪市場都有所增長。超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價較上月平均上漲7%，創(chuàng)下1月份以來的最高水平。美國商業(yè)石油總庫存4月份進(jìn)一步增加260萬桶，至9.73億桶，略高于5年平均水平。原油庫存連續(xù)第四個月上漲，增加740萬桶，達(dá)到3.25億桶，為去年7月以來的最高水平，而成品油庫存則連續(xù)第三個月下降。盡管有1360萬桶的汽油庫存，但仍處于季節(jié)性區(qū)間的上端。在歐盟16國（15歐元加上挪威），石油庫存總量下降200萬桶，至11.11億桶，與年初以來的五年平均水平保持一致。今年3月，日本商業(yè)庫存從2月份的大幅下降中恢復(fù)，自去年10月以來首次上升。盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，庫存仍然低于季節(jié)平均水平，特別是原油庫存，創(chuàng)下了歷史新低。4月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，股市與上月相比幾乎沒有變化。據(jù)估計(jì)，2007年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3200萬桶/日，比上年增加280噸/日；2008年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3180萬桶/日，比上年減少120噸/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket reached a record high in April, increasing $6.13 or almost 7% over the previous month toaverage $105.20/b. Prices rose on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and supply disruptions in West Africaand Europe. The weakening US dollar and economic uncertainty added to market volatility, along with sharp downwardrevisions to demand forecasts which were offset by signs of healthy demand in China. The bullish momentum continuedin May on geopolitical trends and strike-related disruptions. In May, the Basket rose to just under $120/b beforedeclining to stand at $118.78/b on 14 May. World economic growth is forecast at 3.9% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month amid signs that the credit crisismay be easing. Forecasts for Japan were revised slightly up while those for the Euro-zone slightly down. The forecastfor the US is unchanged at 1.1%. In the narrow technical sense, the US is not yet in recession — advance figures for USGDP in the first quarter still indicate positive growth, albeit at a meager 0.6% yearly rate, mainly on continued strengthin exports and a rise in inventories. US payrolls in April fell for the fourth month, but the loss of 20,000 jobs was muchsmaller than the average of 80,000/month in the first quarter of 2008. The PMI services index also surprised on theupside, rising above 50 for the first time in three months. Overall, the better-than-expected data and signs that the Fed’seasing cycle was at an end, helped lift the dollar from its lows versus the euro and yen. Inflation continued to troubleChina, India and other emerging markets and could dampen growth in the months ahead. World oil demand in April grew mostly in the non-OECD regions as was expected. OECD oil demand was very weak,although winter product demand improved across Europe. US oil consumption declined sharply, due to both the slowingeconomy and warm winter weather. Oil demand growth is expected to experience the typical seasonal low consumptionin the second quarter. Moreover, this year’s summer driving season is not likely to show its normal annual growth due tothe anticipated weaker gasoline demand in the USA. World oil demand growth in 2008 is forecast at 1.2 mb/d y-o-y toaverage 86.95 mb/d, representing a slight downward revision from the previous month. Non-OECD countries — mainlyChina, the Middle East, India and Latin America — are expected to account for all of the demand growth. Demand inNorth America is forecast to be flat while oil demand in other OECD regions are expected to decline due to weakeningtransport fuel demand in the second quarter. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2008 is expected to average 0.7 mb/d, representing a slight downward revision from theprevious month. Downward revisions made to Mexico, Norway, UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil andRussia were partially offset by upward adjustments to India, Syria and Chad. Growth in OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils for 2007 and 2008 now stand at 0.34 mb/d and 0.54 mb/d respectively. In April, OPEC crude oilproduction averaged 31.70 mb/d, a decline of 393 tb/d from the previous month as production in Nigeria and Iraqwitnessed disruptions. Gasoline stock-draws in the US along with the tight distillate markets in Europe and Asia supported the product market,lifting refining margins across the globe. The current sentiment of the product market may be compounded further,providing support for crude prices as the driving season approaches. However, due to relatively comfortable gasolinestocks, particularly in the US, refining margins are not expected to boost sharply over the next months. Meanwhile, withtechnical restrictions in the downstream hindering any significant switch in the refinery mode to favour middle distillateproduction, the current tightness in middle of the barrel components might persist, supporting the market over thecoming months. OPEC spot fixtures increased 0.58 mb/d to average 13.5 mb/d in April. Middle East spot fixtures to the East increased aswell as global fixtures on the back of improving tonnage demand, while Middle East to West fixtures declined. OPECsailings remained steady in April with only a minor decline, although increased chartering activities at the end of themonth, which pushed up spot freight rates, point to a possible rise in global sailings in the coming month. As a result ofthe growing tonnage demand, the tanker market for crude oil increased in April on all reported routes. VLCC spotfreight rates rose 7% on average from the previous month, marking the highest level since January. US total commercial oil stocks rose a further 2.6 mb in April to 973 mb to remain slightly above the five-year average.Crude oil stocks rose for the fourth consecutive month, adding 7.4 mb to hit 325 mb, their highest level since last July,while product stocks fell for the third consecutive month. Despite a draw of 13.6 mb, gasoline stocks remained at theupper end of their seasonal range. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway), total oil stocks fell 2 mb to stand at 1,111 mb inApril, remaining in line with the five-year average since the beginning of the year. In March, Japan’s commercial stocksrecovered from a huge decline of February, rising for the first time since last October. Despite this recovery, stocksremained below the seasonal average, particularly crude oil inventories, which hit a new record low. Preliminary datafor April indicate almost no change in stocks from the previous month. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is estimated to average 32.0 mb/d, an increase of 280 tb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.8 mb/d, or 120 tb/d lower than in the previous year.