太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能發(fā)電的融資Financing Solar and Wind Power
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太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)必須在未來(lái)幾十年籌集數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元,以實(shí)現(xiàn)更古老、更成熟的能源規(guī)模。盡管近年來(lái)太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的投資有所增長(zhǎng),2015年達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2700億美元,但2016年這類投資下降了約16%至2260億美元。1太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能開(kāi)發(fā)商往往難以以有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的條件獲得足夠的融資。 全球石油和天然氣行業(yè)在資金需求融資方面有著長(zhǎng)期而深入的記錄。2013年,在最近的大宗商品價(jià)格周期中,石油和天然氣行業(yè)每年投資約9000億美元 本文認(rèn)為,油氣產(chǎn)業(yè)在融資方面的成功,能否為太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供有益的啟示。當(dāng)然,石油和天然氣資產(chǎn)與太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能資產(chǎn)之間有著重要的區(qū)別。其中之一是上游石油和天然氣資產(chǎn)相對(duì)于投資資本而言可能產(chǎn)生非常大的現(xiàn)金流(事實(shí)上,“打擊石油”一詞經(jīng)常被用作石油和天然氣行業(yè)之外的隱喻,用來(lái)描述回報(bào)特別豐厚的情況。)也有相似之處,包括技術(shù)的作用、對(duì)發(fā)展資本的需求和對(duì)商業(yè)周期的敞口,研究石油和天然氣行業(yè)的融資工具有助于為太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能行業(yè)提供獲得額外和更便宜資本的戰(zhàn)略建議。 這將帶來(lái)重要的社會(huì)效益。太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能既不會(huì)產(chǎn)生當(dāng)?shù)乜諝馕廴疚?,也不?huì)產(chǎn)生溫室氣體。太陽(yáng)能和社區(qū)規(guī)模的風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)可以在偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)輸送電力,而無(wú)需接入電網(wǎng),為現(xiàn)在缺乏電力的人提供電力。部分原因是,世界各國(guó)政府大力支持太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的發(fā)展。 大量的文獻(xiàn)研究了太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的投資規(guī)模,尤其是實(shí)現(xiàn)緩解氣候變化目標(biāo)所需的投資規(guī)模。這篇文獻(xiàn)表明,為了達(dá)到將全球變暖限制在高于工業(yè)化前溫度20攝氏度/3.60華氏度的國(guó)際商定目標(biāo),光是太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)力發(fā)電設(shè)施的投資需求在未來(lái)25年每年就約為5000億美元。3這幾乎是目前太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)力發(fā)電設(shè)施投資率的兩倍。
The solar and wind power industries must raise trillions of dollars in the decades ahead to achieve the scale of older, more established energy sources. While investment in solar and wind power has grown in recent years, reaching a record $270 billion in 2015, such investment declined by roughly 16% to $226 billion in 2016.1 Solar and wind developersoftenstruggletoobtainadequatefinancingoncompetitiveterms. Theglobaloilandgasindustryhasalonganddeeptrackrecordoffinancingitscapitalneeds.Atthetopofthemostrecent commodity price cycle in 2013, the oil and gas industry was investing roughly $900 billion annually.2 In this paper we consider whether the successes of the oil and gas industry in raising capital could provide insights to help the solar and wind power industries expand. There are, of course, important differences between oil and gas assets on the one hand and solar and wind power assets on the other. One of these is the potential for upstream oilandgasassetstogenerateextraordinarycashflowsrelativetocapitalinvested.(Indeedthephrase“strikingoil”is often used as a metaphor outside the oil and gas industry to describe situations with especially lucrative returns.) There are also similarities, including the role of technologies, need for development capital and exposure to business cycles.Examiningthefinancetoolsoftheoilandgasindustrycouldhelpsuggeststrategiesforthesolarandwindpower industries to access additional and cheaper capital. Thiswoulddeliverimportantsocialbenefits.Solarandwindpowercreateneitherlocalairpollutantsnorgreenhousegases. Solar power and community-scale wind turbines can deliver electricity in remote locations without access to a power grid, providing electricity to those who now lack it. Partly for these reasons, governments around the world strongly support the development of solar and wind power. A substantial body of literature has examined the scale of investment in solar and wind power needed to achieve climate change mitigation goals in particular. This literature suggests that to meet the agreed international target of limiting global warming to 20C/3.60F above pre-industrial temperatures, the investment need in solar and wind power facilitiesaloneisroughly$500billionperyearoverthenexttwenty-fiveyears.3 This is almost double the current rate of investment in solar and wind facilities.-
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