最近幾周，各國央行對通脹風(fēng)險的看法發(fā)生了重大變化。經(jīng)過三年普遍的擴(kuò)張性政策，重點已從維持增長轉(zhuǎn)向抑制通脹。針對通脹預(yù)期上升的危險，美國、歐洲和亞洲都提高了利率。因此，物價上漲仍在可控范圍內(nèi)，但貨幣當(dāng)局已采取行動，以防止能源和大宗商品成本上升導(dǎo)致工資結(jié)算，并導(dǎo)致核心通脹率上升。市場尤其擔(dān)心，在2006年剩余時間內(nèi)，美國利率可能繼續(xù)升至高于此前預(yù)期的水平，黃金、大宗商品和股票的價格因此不斷下跌。

緊縮政策的影響可能要到明年才能感受到，2006年多數(shù)地區(qū)的GDP預(yù)測已經(jīng)上調(diào)，反映出一季度以來強(qiáng)勁的持續(xù)勢頭。預(yù)計第二季度歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)，2006年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期已升至2.0%。2006年對日本的預(yù)測也被修正為3.0%，對中國的預(yù)測被提高到9.5%。然而，以美國經(jīng)濟(jì)為例，高利率和高能源成本預(yù)計將影響今年的消費支出，2006年的增長預(yù)期已從3.4%下調(diào)至3.3%。在某些情況下，對暴露于商品價格的經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)測也有所降低?？偟膩碚f，這些不同的調(diào)整抵消了對2006年世界GDP增長的預(yù)測，保持在4.7%不變。

由于擔(dān)心可能出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺，地緣政治緊張局勢繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)市場情緒，歐佩克5月初參考價格籃子達(dá)到68.37美元/桶的歷史高點。然而，隨著本月的進(jìn)展，在供應(yīng)充足的情況下，健康原油庫存水平緩解了市場的擔(dān)憂，使一攬子原油價格跌至62.51美元/桶，然后在本月底再次回升。因此，5月份該籃子平均價格為65.11美元/桶，較上月微增67美元或超過1%。6月，該籃子繼續(xù)經(jīng)歷波動性波動，月初升至66.48美元/桶，6月16日則有下降趨勢，至63.02美元/桶。

過去幾周，由于國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量和進(jìn)口增加，美國汽油庫存增加，緩和了美國產(chǎn)品市場的看漲情緒，并給煉油利潤率帶來壓力，特別是重質(zhì)原油。近期，歐洲現(xiàn)貨和期貨產(chǎn)品市場也受到美國汽油庫存看跌走勢的影響，但總體而言，5月份的產(chǎn)品價格已超過其相應(yīng)的基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油精煉廠利潤率，飆升2.08美元，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的5.80美元/桶，隨著美國和歐洲煉油廠從維修中恢復(fù)過來，如果當(dāng)前需求增長的低速度繼續(xù)下去，這些地區(qū)的煉油廠利潤率可能會進(jìn)一步下降。在亞洲，持續(xù)的大規(guī)模維修計劃可能會支撐6月份的產(chǎn)品價格和煉油利潤率，但隨著煉油廠從7月份開始恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)，它們可能會失去部分實力。

歐佩克5月份現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量大幅飆升，平均為1440萬桶/日，較上月增長240萬桶/日或20%，較上年同期增長170萬桶/日。上升趨勢是由于煉油廠開始從季節(jié)性維修中恢復(fù)，預(yù)訂量居高不下。非歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量也有所增加，增加了40萬桶/日，達(dá)到780萬桶/日。然而，來自歐佩克的航運(yùn)量下降了140萬桶/日，至229萬桶/日，部分原因是上個月歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降。預(yù)訂量的增加導(dǎo)致油輪市場緊張，幾乎所有航線的運(yùn)價都大幅增長，扭轉(zhuǎn)了2006年2月以來的持續(xù)下降趨勢。在超大型油輪行業(yè)，從中東向東運(yùn)輸原油的運(yùn)費平均增長了20%，而向西運(yùn)輸?shù)挠洼喌倪\(yùn)費則增加了三分之一。在類似的趨勢下，成品油船市場進(jìn)一步走強(qiáng)，特別是在東部地區(qū)，現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價平均上漲了100多點或50%左右。

據(jù)預(yù)測，2006年世界石油需求將增長140萬桶/日或1.6%，至平均8460萬桶/日，與上月的預(yù)測基本持平。盡管世界石油需求增長的最大份額主要在發(fā)展中國家，但有跡象表明，石油需求有所緩解，部分原因是高油價。與上一季度相比，美國第二季度的石油需求與3.4%的高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長保持同步，顯示該季度石油需求同比增長20萬桶/日。中東地區(qū)石油需求量小幅增長3萬桶/日，達(dá)到610萬桶/日，同比增長30萬桶/日。上半年，中國強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長帶動了石油需求的增長，全年石油需求量上調(diào)2萬桶/日。目前，中國的石油需求預(yù)計將增長近50萬桶/日，到2006年達(dá)到平均700萬桶/日。

2006年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計為5140萬桶/日，比2005年增加120萬桶/日，但較上一次評估的水平向下修正了84000桶/日。這一調(diào)整反映出加拿大、澳大利亞、安哥拉和毛里塔尼亞的產(chǎn)量增長低于預(yù)期，原因是一些關(guān)鍵項目的啟動或生產(chǎn)受到意外技術(shù)問題的影響。然而，這些調(diào)整被其他國家，特別是阿根廷、俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的上調(diào)部分抵消。與之前的估計一致，預(yù)計經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將從6月份開始迅速加速。2006年4月的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，非歐佩克國家的總供應(yīng)量為5050萬桶/日。從5月的數(shù)據(jù)來看，初步估計，非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)量超過5100萬桶/日，這是該集團(tuán)的一項記錄。5月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2950萬桶/日，較上月下降10萬桶/日。

Recent weeks have seen a significant change in the central banks’ perception of inflation risks. Following three yearsof generally expansionary policies, the emphasis has shifted from sustaining growth to restraining inflation. Interestrates have been raised in the USA, Europe and Asia in response to the danger of rising inflation expectations. Thusfar, price increases remain under control but monetary authorities have acted to forestall any acceleration in case risesin energy and commodity costs should feed through into wage settlements and lead to increases in core rates ofinflation. Markets are particularly concerned that US interest rates may continue to increase to higher levels thanpreviously anticipated through the remainder of 2006 and prices of gold, commodities and equities have fallensharply as a result. 

The impact of the tighter policies may not be felt until next year and the 2006 GDP forecasts for most regions havebeen raised, reflecting the strong ongoing momentum from the first quarter. The Euro-zone is expected to see acontinued improvement in the second quarter and the growth forecast for 2006 has been increased to 2.0%. The 2006forecast for Japan has also been revised up to 3.0% and the forecast for China has been raised to 9.5%. In the case ofthe US economy, however, higher interest rates and high energy costs are expected to affect consumer spending thisyear and the growth forecast for 2006 has been cut to 3.3% from 3.4%. Projections for economies exposed tocommodity prices have also been reduced in some cases. Overall, these various adjustments cancel out and theforecast for world GDP growth in 2006 is unchanged at 4.7%. 

The OPEC Reference Basket early in May peaked at an all-time high of $68.37/b as geopolitical tensions continuedto dominate market sentiment amid fears of a possible supply shortfall. However, as the month progressed, healthycrude oil stock levels amid ample supplies eased market concern, sending the Basket as low as $62.51/b beforepicking up again at the end of the month. As a result, the Basket average $65.11/b in May, a marginal increase of 67or over 1% from the previous month. In June, the Basket continued to experience volatile movement rising to$66.48/b early in the month before trending downward to stand at $ 63.02/b on 16 June.

  US gasoline stock-builds over the last couple of weeks as a result of higher domestic production and imports havesoftened the bullish sentiment in the US product market and put pressure on refining margins, especially heavy crudeoil. European spot and futures product markets have also been affected recently by the bearish movement in USgasoline stocks, but generally product prices in May have overtaken their corresponding benchmark Brent crudeallowing refinery margins to surge by $2.08 to record $5.80/b. Looking ahead, with the return of refineries frommaintenance in the USA and Europe, refinery margins in these areas may soften further if the current low pace ofdemand growth continues. In Asia, the ongoing heavy maintenance schedule could support product prices andrefinery margins in June, but they may lose part of their strength as refineries come back onstream from July onward. 

OPEC spot fixtures surged sharply in May to average 14.4 mb/d, up 2.4 mb/d or 20% from the previous month and1.7 mb/d higher than a year earlier. The uptrend was a result of high bookings as refineries began to return fromseasonal maintenance. Non-OPEC spot fixtures also increased, rising 0.4 mb/d to stand at 7.8 mb/d. However,sailings from OPEC moved down 1.4 mb/d to 22.9 mb/d due partly to the decline in OPEC fixtures during theprevious month. The increase in bookings translated into a tight tanker market where almost all routes saw significantgrowth in freight rates and reversed the continuous downward trend displayed since February 2006. In the VLCCsector, freight rates for shipping crude oil from the Middle East to the east increased on average by 20% andincreased by one-third for tankers moving to the west. Following a similar trend, the product tanker marketstrengthened further, especially in the east where spot freight rates increased by more than 100 points or around 50%on average. 

World oil demand in 2006 is forecast to grow 1.4 mb/d or 1.6% to average 84.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from lastmonth’s estimate. Even though the largest share of the increase in world oil demand growth is mainly in theDeveloping Countries, signs indicate an easing in oil demand, partly due to the high oil prices. In contrast to theprevious quarter, US oil demand in the second quarter is keeping up with the high 3.4% economic growth, displayinga y-o-y increase of 0.2 mb/d in that quarter. In the Middle East, oil demand has been revised up a slight 30,000 b/d tostand at 6.1 mb/d, representing a y-o-y increase of 0.3 mb/d. China’s strong economic boom has increased oil demandin the first half, resulting in an upward revision of 20,000 b/d for the entire year. Chinese oil demand is now expectedto grow by almost 0.5 mb/d to average 7 mb/d in 2006. 

In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.2 mb/d over 2005, but adownward revision of 84,000 b/d versus the previous assessment. The adjustment reflects lower-than-expectedproduction growth from Canada, Australia, Angola, and Mauritania due to unexpected technical issues affecting thestart-up or production of some key projects. However, these adjustments have been partly offset by upward revisions inother countries, particularly Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Growth is expected to accelerate rapidly from Juneonwards, consistent with previous estimates. Preliminary data for April 2006 puts total non-OPEC supply at 50.5 mb/d.Looking at May, preliminary estimates indicate that non-OPEC supply exceeded 51 mb/d, which is a record for thegroup. Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.5 mb/d in May, a drop of 100,000 b/d from last month.