原油價格變動

2月份，ORB的平均市盈率下降了5%，六個月來首次下降，至63.48美元/桶，但仍高于兩年多以來的水平。截至目前，全球原油期貨價格為23.4%，或12.37美元，高于去年同期的65.25美元/桶。同樣，布倫特原油期貨價格下跌了397美元/桶，平均65.16美元/桶，而原油現(xiàn)貨價格下跌了1.55美元/桶，平均62.15美元/桶。石油期貨價格也下跌，但幅度不一。本月初原油期貨開始拋售，油價下跌，美國股市大幅下跌，美元堅挺。ICE布倫特原油期貨價格下跌3.35美元，至65.73美元/桶，跌幅4.8%；紐約商品交易所WTI原油期貨價格較一個月前下跌1.48美元，至62.18美元/桶，跌幅2.3%。截至目前，ICE布倫特原油價格較上年同期上漲11.77美元，至67.48美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油價格上漲9.93美元，至62.96美元/桶。截至本月底，俄克拉荷馬州庫欣（Cushing）的庫存出現(xiàn)短暫下降，布倫特WTI原油價格價差大幅收窄，至3美元/桶左右。對沖基金將ICE Brentand NYMEX WTI的凈多頭頭寸減至101萬份。布倫特和迪拜的滯銷有所緩解，而wt的滯銷有所加強。除歐洲外，全球糖醋差距縮小。

世界經(jīng)濟

2017年和2018年的全球GDP增長預測仍為3.8%。在2017年增長2.3%之后，美國2018年的增長預計將保持在2.7%不變。預計2018年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長率將保持在2.2%，2017年增長率為2.5%。在2017年實際增長1.7%之后，日本的2018年增長預測下調(diào)至1.5%。印度2018年的GDP增長預測保持在7.2%不變，高于2017年6.4%的實際增長。在2017年增長6.9%后，預計2018年中國GDP增長將保持在6.5%。

世界石油需求

2017年，為反映最新數(shù)據(jù)，世界石油需求增長比2月份的評估值高23 tb/d。目前，2017年世界石油需求總量增長預計為162萬桶/日，平均為9704萬桶/日。目前，預測2018年石油需求增長約為160萬桶/日，略高于2月份的計劃，石油需求總量為9863萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的石油需求增長在2008年第一季度被調(diào)高，目前顯示2018年增長為32萬桶/日。在非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)，2008年第一季度的增長預測也增加了20 tb/d，現(xiàn)在顯示2018年的增長為127 mb/d。

世界石油供應

2017年，非歐佩克石油供應量較2月份的評估略有增加0.01百萬桶/日，主要原因是第四季度產(chǎn)量增長高于預期，同比增長0.87百萬桶/日。2018年，非歐佩克石油供應量同比增長1.66百萬桶/日，同比增長0.28百萬桶/日，非歐佩克國家的總供應量為5953萬桶/日。向上修正的主要原因是，經(jīng)合組織（美洲和歐洲）、金融穩(wěn)定聯(lián)盟和中國在18年第一季度的產(chǎn)出比預期高出360噸/日。目前，預計歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量在2018年將增長18萬桶/日，上年同期為17萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量在2018年2月下降了77 tb/d，平均為3219 mb/d。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務

所有主要交易中心的產(chǎn)品市場上個月都顯示出積極的結(jié)果，主要是受基本面改善的推動。在美國，盡管本月大部分時間都出現(xiàn)虧損，但由于受到汽油和柴油庫存的強勁支撐，煉油廠利潤率顯示出季節(jié)性同比增長，在本月最后一周，由于煉油廠的維護，汽油和柴油庫存分別下降了80萬桶/日和60萬桶/日。在歐洲，由于汽油需求增加和燃料油出口機會改善，產(chǎn)品市場走強。同樣，除柴油市場外，亞洲產(chǎn)品市場全線上漲。支持來自更高的產(chǎn)品需求，符合季節(jié)性趨勢，以及由于東北亞的寒冷天氣，在強勁的航空燃料需求下，更高的取暖要求。

油輪市場

油輪市場現(xiàn)貨運價繼續(xù)下降，如前幾個月所見。二月份臟油輪的平均即期運費進一步下降了6%。盡管天氣和港口出現(xiàn)延誤，但由于管理需求有限和長噸位清單阻止了幾個地區(qū)的運價上漲，所有報告的臟艙運價都有所下降。2月份清潔油輪市場基本平靜，現(xiàn)貨運價普遍疲軟，原因是盡管天氣寒冷，偶爾會出現(xiàn)延誤，但假期和活動不足。

股票變動

1月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫存總量增加1370萬股，達到286500萬股，比最近五年的平均水平高出5000萬股。原油庫存顯示有7400萬桶的盈余，而產(chǎn)品庫存則出現(xiàn)2400萬桶的季節(jié)性赤字。從遠期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股1月份小幅下跌，至60天，比過去5年的平均水平低0.6天。

供需平衡

2017年，預計歐佩克原油需求將保持不變，達到3290萬桶/日，比2016年的水平高出60萬桶/日。2018年，預計歐佩克原油需求為3260萬桶/日，較上一次評估下降20萬桶/日，較上年同期下降20萬桶/日

Crude Oil Price Movements 

In February, the ORB dropped 5% m-o-m, lower for the first time in six months, to average $63.48/b, butremains above levels seen in more than two years. Year-to-date, the ORB was 23.4%, or $12.37, higherthan seen in the same period a year earlier, at $65.25/b. Similarly, Dated Brent dropped by $3.97 m-o-m toaverage $65.16/b and spot WTI declined by $1.55 to average $62.15/b. Oil futures also ended lower, but byvarying amounts. The sell-off in crude oil futures started early in the month with oil prices pulled lower, asmajor US stock markets declined sharply and the dollar firmed. The ICE Brent was $3.35, or 4.8%, lower, at$65.73/b, while NYMEX WTI slipped $1.48, or 2.3%, to $62.18/b compared to a month earlier. Year-to-date,ICE Brent was $11.77 higher than the same period a year earlier at $67.48/b, while NYMEX WTI rose by$9.93 to $62.96/b. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed significantly to around $3/b by the end of the month, onsteep declines in inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma. Hedge funds reduced net long positions in ICE Brentand NYMEX WTI to 1.01 million contracts. Brent and Dubai backwardation eased, while that of WTIstrengthened. The sweet-sour differentials narrowed globally, except in Europe. 

World Economy 

The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018. US growth is expected to standunchanged at 2.7% in 2018, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in the Euro-zone is expected to remain at2.2% in 2018, following growth of 2.5% in 2017. Japan’s 2018 growth forecast is revised down to 1.5%, afteractual growth of 1.7% in 2017. India’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 7.2% in 2018, higher thanactual growth for 2017 at 6.4%. China’s GDP growth is projected to remain at 6.5% in 2018, after reportedgrowth of 6.9% in 2017. 

World Oil Demand 

In 2017, world oil demand growth is revised higher by 23 tb/d from February’s assessment to reflect thelatest data. Total world oil demand growth for 2017 is now pegged at 1.62 mb/d, averaging 97.04 mb/d. For2018, oil demand growth is now forecasted at around 1.60 mb/d, marginally higher than February’sprojections, with total oil demand at 98.63 mb/d. Oil demand growth in the OECD region was revised higherin 1Q18, now showing growth of 0.32 mb/d for 2018. In the non-OECD region, growth projections were alsoadjusted higher by 20 tb/d in 1Q18, now showing growth of 1.27 mb/d in 2018. 

World Oil Supply 

For 2017, non-OPEC supply is revised up slightly by 0.01 mb/d from February’s assessment, mainly due tohigher-than-expected output growth in 4Q17, representing growth of 0.87 mb/d y-o-y. For 2018,non-OPEC supply is revised up by 0.28 mb/d, representing y-o-y growth of 1.66 mb/d, with totalnon-OPEC supply reading 59.53 mb/d. The upward revision is mainly due to higher-than-expected output in1Q18 by 360 tb/d in OECD (Americas and Europe), FSU and China. OPEC NGLs are now expected to growby 0.18 mb/d in 2018, following 0.17 mb/d a year earlier. According to secondary sources, OPEC crudeproduction decreased by 77 tb/d in February 2018, averaging 32.19 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in all main trading hubs showed positive results last month, mainly driven by improvedfundamentals. In the US, and despite losses seen through most of the month, refinery margins showedoutstanding seasonal y-o-y growth on strong support from gasoline and diesel stocks, which fell by 0.8 mb/dand 0.6 mb/d, respectively, in the last week of the month, due to refinery maintenance. In Europe, productmarkets strengthened, supported by higher gasoline demand and improved fuel oil export opportunities.Similarly, product markets in Asia recorded gains all across the barrel, except in the diesel complex. Supportcame from higher product demand, in line with seasonal trends, and higher heating requirements due tocolder weather in northeast Asia, amid firm jet fuel demand. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market spot freight rates continued to drop as seen in the previous months. Average dirty tanker spotfreight rates declined further by 6% in February. Lower rates were seen in all reported dirty classes as limitedtonnage demand and lengthy tonnage lists prevented rates from rising in several regions, despite someweather and ports delays. The clean tanker market was mostly quiet in February and spot freight rates weregenerally weak, due to holidays and insufficient activity despite cold weather and occasional delays.

Stock Movements 

Preliminary data for January showed that total OECD commercial stocks rose by 13.7 mb m-o-m to standat 2,865 mb, which is 50 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude stocks indicated a surplus of 74 mb,while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 24 mb to the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks fell slightly in January to stand at 60 days, which is 0.6 days lower than the lastfive-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is estimated to remain unchanged to stand at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d higherthan the 2016 level. In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.6 mb/d, down by 0.2 mb/d from theprevious assessment and 0.2 m/d lower than a year earlier