原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)4月份，歐佩克參考籃子（ORB）環(huán)比上漲4.67美元，漲幅7.3%，至平均68.43美元/桶，布倫特原油和迪拜原油價(jià)格分別上漲近9%，而WTI原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格上漲6%。截至今年（y-t-d），or b的價(jià)值為13.85美元，或26.7%，高于去年同期的65.67美元/桶。地緣政治擔(dān)憂、產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存收緊和強(qiáng)勁需求為油價(jià)提供了支撐。在原油期貨方面，4月份，ICE布倫特原油期貨上漲5.04美元，漲幅7.6%，至71.76美元/桶，NYMEX布倫特原油期貨上漲3.55美元，漲幅5.7%，至66.33美元/桶。Y-t-d、ICE布倫特原油期貨上漲13.96美元，漲幅25.7%，至68.36美元/桶，而YMEX WTI原油期貨上漲12.15美元，同比增長(zhǎng)23.5%，至63.77美元/桶。受看跌的基本面影響，4月份布倫特/紐約商品交易所（TheICE Brent/NYMEX）的WTI價(jià)差大幅擴(kuò)大至5.44美元/桶，為今年以來(lái)最大價(jià)差。盡管原油期貨價(jià)格飆升，但投機(jī)性凈多頭倉(cāng)位收低，不過(guò)，洲際布倫特原油的多空比進(jìn)一步上升，創(chuàng)下歷史新高。布倫特和迪拜市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)都在強(qiáng)勁的即期價(jià)格和健康的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的推動(dòng)下進(jìn)一步進(jìn)入了滯銷(xiāo)狀態(tài)，而紐約商品交易所（NYMEX）的WTI在滯銷(xiāo)狀態(tài)下仍保持在同一水平。歐洲和亞洲的糖醋差距進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，而美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸地區(qū)的糖醋差距進(jìn)一步縮小。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)全球GDP增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)在2017年增長(zhǎng)3.8%之后，2018年仍為3.8%。預(yù)計(jì)2018年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與上月持平，為2.7%，2017年增長(zhǎng)2.3%。歐元區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)率在2017年增長(zhǎng)2.5%之后，于2018年下調(diào)至2.2%。日本2018年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)仍為1.5%，2017年增長(zhǎng)1.7%。2018年，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的GPD增長(zhǎng)率似乎沒(méi)有變化，為4.4%，上年同期增長(zhǎng)率為4.0%。盡管印度2018年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率在2017年達(dá)到6.3%之后小幅上調(diào)至7.3%，但中國(guó)2018年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率在2017年達(dá)到6.9%之后仍保持在6.5%不變。巴西和俄羅斯在2017年分別增長(zhǎng)1%和1.5%后，2018年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)分別為2.1%和1.8%。盡管對(duì)經(jīng)合組織和非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)進(jìn)行了一些相互抵消的調(diào)整，但2017年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)與上個(gè)月的評(píng)估持平。據(jù)估計(jì)，世界石油需求在2017年增長(zhǎng)了165萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均9720萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2018年石油需求增長(zhǎng)將增加約165萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均9885萬(wàn)桶/日。與上個(gè)月的評(píng)估相比，增長(zhǎng)被調(diào)高了25 tb/日。這主要是為了說(shuō)明經(jīng)合組織在2008年第一季度的數(shù)據(jù)。非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的石油需求增長(zhǎng)也向上修正，主要是由于印度和拉丁美洲等其他亞洲地區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期。預(yù)計(jì)2018年中國(guó)將引領(lǐng)石油需求增長(zhǎng)，緊隨其后的是其他亞洲國(guó)家和經(jīng)合組織美洲國(guó)家。歐佩克2017年世界石油供應(yīng)量略微下降0.01百萬(wàn)桶/日，目前顯示增長(zhǎng)0.87百萬(wàn)桶/日，年平均增長(zhǎng)57.89百萬(wàn)桶/日。這一修正是在對(duì)歷史非常規(guī)生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行審查后作出的，這些數(shù)據(jù)導(dǎo)致了向下調(diào)整，主要是巴西的調(diào)整，以及向上調(diào)整，尤其是對(duì)于經(jīng)合組織歐洲。此外，在2018，對(duì)美國(guó)、阿根廷、哥倫比亞和中國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)，在1Q18向上修正被部分地抵消了加拿大、墨西哥、挪威、英國(guó)和巴西爾的向下調(diào)整。這導(dǎo)致對(duì)2018年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量的上調(diào)，為0.01百萬(wàn)桶/日。與上月的評(píng)估相比，目前估計(jì)為1.72百萬(wàn)桶/日，平均為59.62百萬(wàn)桶/日。在2017年進(jìn)行了一次向下修正后，預(yù)計(jì)2018年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體產(chǎn)量將同比增長(zhǎng)18萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均649萬(wàn)桶/日。根據(jù)第二來(lái)源，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量在2018年4月增加了12 tb/日，達(dá)到平均3193萬(wàn)桶/日。大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)4月份強(qiáng)勁上漲。在美國(guó)，煉油利潤(rùn)率在桶的頂部和中部都有所提高。由于計(jì)劃內(nèi)和計(jì)劃外的煉油廠停產(chǎn)，煉油廠產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量減少，加上汽油出口量破紀(jì)錄，柴油庫(kù)存大幅減少，美國(guó)4月份利潤(rùn)率創(chuàng)下三年來(lái)新高。在歐洲，盡管所有其他產(chǎn)品都出現(xiàn)了虧損，但在汽油和柴油聯(lián)合企業(yè)的支持下，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了復(fù)蘇。與此同時(shí)，由于地區(qū)汽油市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)量高，在桶頂出現(xiàn)壓力，inAsia的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)走弱。4月份阿曼原油價(jià)格上漲，盡管春季煉油廠開(kāi)始維護(hù)，但進(jìn)一步加劇了亞洲市場(chǎng)的低迷。油輪市場(chǎng)臟油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)在4月份大多下降或保持在此前的低水平。超大型油輪的平均即期運(yùn)價(jià)與上月相比幾乎持平，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)分別下降了6%和3%-

Crude Oil Price MovementsIn April, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $4.67, or 7.3%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average$68.43/b, with Dated Brent and Dubai rising by nearly 9% each, while spot WTI increased by 6%. Year-todate(y-t-d), the ORB value was $13.85, or 26.7%, higher at $65.67/b, compared with the same period a yearearlier. Geopolitical concerns, tightening product inventories and robust demand provided support for prices.With regard to crude oil futures, in April, ICE Brent was up $5.04, or 7.6%, at $71.76/b, while NYMEX WTIgained $3.55, or 5.7%, to stand at $66.33/b. Y-t-d, ICE Brent is $13.96, or 25.7%, higher at $68.36/b, whileNYMEX WTI has risen by $12.15, or 23.5%, to $63.77/b, compared with the same period a year earlier. TheICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened significantly to $5.44/b in April – the widest this year – on bearishUS fundamentals. Despite the surge in crude oil futures prices, speculative net long positions ended lower,however, long-to-short ratios in ICE Brent increased further to record highs. Both Brent and Dubai marketstructures moved deeper into backwardation on strong prompt month prices and healthy physical crudemarkets, while NYMEX WTI remained at the same level, in backwardation. The sweet/sour differentialswidened further in Europe and Asia, while in the US Gulf Coast (USGC), the spread narrowed more.World EconomyThe global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018, following growth of 3.8% in 2017. Expected USgrowth in 2018 is unchanged from the previous month at 2.7%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in theEuro-zone was revised down to 2.2% in 2018, following growth of 2.5% in 2017. Japan’s 2018 growthforecast remains at 1.5%, after growth of 1.7% in 2017. For 2018, Developing Countries’ GPD growth is seenunchanged at 4.4%, following growth of 4.0% a year earlier. While India’s 2018 forecast was revised upslightly to 7.3%, following 2017 GDP growth of 6.3%, China’s 2018 GDP growth forecast remains unchangedat 6.5%, after 2017 growth of 6.9%. Brazil and Russia also saw an unchanged GDP growth forecast at 2.1%and 1.8% in 2018, respectively, following growth of 1% and 1.5% in 2017.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth for 2017 was kept unchanged from last month’s assessment, despite someadjustments to both OECD and non-OECD regions, which offset each other. World oil demand is estimatedto have grown by 1.65 mb/d in 2017 to average 97.20 mb/d. For 2018, oil demand growth is forecast toincrease by around 1.65 mb/d to average 98.85 mb/d. Growth was revised higher by 25 tb/d compared withlast month’s assessment. This is mainly to account for firm OECD data in 1Q18. Oil demand growth in thenon-OECD region was also revised upward, primarily on the back of better-than-expected data from OtherAsia, including India, and Latin America. China is anticipated to lead oil demand growth in 2018, followed byOther Asia and OECD Americas.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC supply for 2017 was revised down slightly by 0.01 mb/d to now show growth of 0.87 mb/d y-o-yand average 57.89 mb/d. The revision came on the back of a review of historical non-conventionalproduction data leading to downward adjustments, mostly for Brazil, as well as upward revisions, notably forOECD Europe. Furthermore, in 2018, upward revisions in 1Q18 to the forecasts of the US, Argentina,Colombia and China were partially offset by downward adjustments to Canada, Mexico, Norway, UK, andBrazil. This has led to an upward revision to 2018 non-OPEC supply of 0.01 mb/d. It is now estimated togrow by 1.72 mb/d y-o-y to average 59.62 mb/d, compared to last month’s assessment. Following adownward revision in 2017, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production in 2018 are forecast togrow by 0.18 mb/d y-o-y, to average 6.49 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in April 2018 increased by12 tb/d, to average 31.93 mb/d, according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin saw strong gains in April. In the US, refining margins strengthenedacross the top and middle of the barrel. Reduced refinery product output caused by planned and unplannedrefinery outages, along with record-breaking gasoline export levels and strong diesel inventory drawdownsdrove US margins to a record three-year high in April. In Europe, product markets saw a recovery, supportedby the gasoline and diesel complexes, despite losses in all other products. Meanwhile, product markets inAsia weakened due to pressure seen at the top of the barrel, attributed to high supply in the regionalgasoline market. Higher Oman crude prices in April, despite the onset of spring refinery maintenanceseason, further exacerbated the downturn seen in the Asian market.Tanker MarketDirty tanker spot freight rates mostly declined in April or remained at previously low levels. VLCC averagespot freight rates stayed almost flat compared with the previous month, while Suezmax and Aframax ratesdropped by 6% and 3% m-o-m, respectively. The decline in rates was attributed to limited inquiries,continuing tonnage oversupply, as well as reduced port and transit delays. Similarly, the clean tanker marketsaw lower monthly freight rates on most reported routes due to the same circumstances.Stock MovementsPreliminary data for March 2018 shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.7 mb to stand at2,829 mb, which is 9 mb above the latest five-year average. However, this current level of OECD stocks stillremains 258 mb above January 2014. Within the components, crude stocks in March 2018 indicated asurplus of 12 mb, while product stocks witnessed a deficit of 3 mb against the latest five-year average. Interms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in March to stand at 59.9 days, which is1.6 days lower than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandIn 2017, demand for OPEC crude is estimated to stand at 33.0 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d higher than a year earlier. In2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.7 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d lower than the 2017 level