歐佩克5月份的參考價格平均為64.36美元/桶，比上月高出97美元。美國健康的原油庫存被主要在美國的一系列煉油廠故障所平衡，當時人們擔(dān)心在合并的駕駛季節(jié)需求上升。對西非供應(yīng)的持續(xù)關(guān)注保持了警覺。今年6月，該籃子依然不穩(wěn)定，隨著“貢努”氣旋威脅到中東的石油基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和航運業(yè)，加上新的地緣政治發(fā)展，價格推高至67美元/桶，隨后回落至略高于65美元/桶。6月13日，該籃子為65.56美元/桶。

據(jù)預(yù)測，2007年世界經(jīng)濟增長率為4.9%，略高于上個月，歐盟、中國、印度和俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟增長率將上調(diào)。繼一季度經(jīng)濟增長大幅下調(diào)后，美國的經(jīng)濟預(yù)測又下調(diào)了0.1個百分點，至2.1%。不過，最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管房地產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)疲軟，但第二季度的增長應(yīng)該會更高。自相矛盾的是，最近強勁的報告引發(fā)了債券市場的拋售，因為擔(dān)心強勁的增長會引發(fā)通貨膨脹并導(dǎo)致更高的利率。這在世界其他地區(qū)產(chǎn)生了連鎖反應(yīng)。日本經(jīng)濟在第一季度以3.3%的年增長率強勁增長，超過了歐盟和美國。隨著就業(yè)的進一步改善，歐盟的積極經(jīng)濟環(huán)境將繼續(xù)下去。對于發(fā)展中的國家，這一預(yù)測沒有改變，但印度的經(jīng)濟增長被修正了0.2%至8.2%，而中國的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)計為10.2%，比上個月的預(yù)測高出0.3%。

2007年世界石油需求增長預(yù)計為130萬桶/日或1.5%，與之前的預(yù)測基本持平。今年迄今，美國石油需求增長了2.3%或0.47百萬桶/日，推動健康的汽油消費。在中東地區(qū)，整個地區(qū)的建筑和石化行業(yè)是石油需求強勁增長的主要原因，而印度的經(jīng)濟活動卻使4月份的石油需求上升了7.1%，即18.9萬桶/日，4月份表觀需求同比增長9.8%或70萬桶/日，達到平均790萬桶/日。中國第二季度的藍寶石石油需求預(yù)計將增長50萬桶/日，達到平均780萬桶/日。2006年，由于發(fā)展中國家的歷史修正，世界石油需求預(yù)測比上個月的預(yù)測增加了15萬桶/日。據(jù)估計，2006年世界石油需求增長率為100萬桶/日，平均為8430萬桶/日，增長率為1.1%。

2007年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將達到5060萬桶/日，比上一年增加110萬桶/日，較上一次評估下調(diào)57000桶/日。此次調(diào)整是由于美國、蘇丹和俄羅斯的表現(xiàn)弱于預(yù)期，部分被英國和德國非常規(guī)石油的上漲所抵消。2006年，非經(jīng)營性供應(yīng)量平均為4950萬桶/日，比2005年增加了50萬桶/日，比上一次評估略有上升。今年5月，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為303萬桶/日，較上月下降8.27萬桶/日。

煉油廠停產(chǎn)的持續(xù)加劇了產(chǎn)品市場的看漲情緒，幫助煉油廠利潤率在全球范圍內(nèi)飆升。過去幾周，美國汽油庫存增加，有助于緩解產(chǎn)品市場的情緒。如果這一趨勢繼續(xù)下去，市場可能受產(chǎn)品方面的發(fā)展影響較小。不過，由于美國下游行業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性緊縮，市場可能仍面臨煉油廠故障的風(fēng)險，這可能會支撐未來幾個月的原油價格。

歐佩克5月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量平均為1210萬桶/日，較上月增加28萬桶/日，但較上年同期減少210萬桶/日。根據(jù)初步數(shù)據(jù)，歐佩克的出海量下降了140萬桶/日，至2310萬桶/日，同比下降了80萬桶/日。原油油輪市場仍然喜憂參半，中東部超大型油輪的運價在噸位需求增加的支撐下不斷上漲。東部目的地在本月初支撐了利率，而西部目的地則有助于維持上漲。

初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織4月份石油凈進口總量增加23萬桶/日，達到平均2580萬桶/日，其中大部分是由產(chǎn)品凈進口推動的，較上月增長約15%。5月份，美國夏季原油進口增加28萬桶/日，產(chǎn)品進口增加37萬桶/日，達到390萬桶/日。5月份，日本石油凈進口下降25萬桶/日，大部分損失來自煉油廠維護高峰期的原油。4月份，中國原油進口量增長34萬桶/日，達到平均360萬桶/日，產(chǎn)品進口量增長24%。中國原油和產(chǎn)品進口年增長超過18%。印度4月份原油進口量猛增31萬桶/日，平均為250萬桶/日，出口年增長率約為90%。

今年5月，美國商業(yè)庫存總量增長了近2200萬股，達到10.07億股，創(chuàng)下去年9月以來的最大增幅，顯示美國商業(yè)庫存比5年平均水平高出1000萬股。汽油庫存增長490萬桶，扭轉(zhuǎn)了2月份以來的下降趨勢。這些增長是由于進口的大幅增加而非煉油廠的產(chǎn)量，因為由于季節(jié)性維護和停產(chǎn)，產(chǎn)量仍低于90%。在歐盟16國（15歐元加上挪威），商業(yè)石油庫存總量創(chuàng)下11.69億歐元的紀錄，意味著超過5年平均水平的660億歐元盈余。4月份，日本商業(yè)石油庫存下降930萬桶，但初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于持續(xù)的大規(guī)模維修，5月份經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇。

預(yù)計2007年歐佩克原油需求平均為3060萬桶/日，較上年略有下降20萬桶/日。按季度計算，第一季度歐佩克原油需求量估計為3111萬桶/日，隨后幾個季度預(yù)計分別為2950萬桶/日、3060萬桶/日和3100萬桶/日。2006年，歐佩克原油需求量平均為3080萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $64.36/b in May or 97 higher than in the previous month. Healthy crude oil stocks inthe USA were balanced by a series of refinery glitches mainly in the USA at a time of concern over rising demand amid theemerging driving season. Sustained concern over West African supply kept alertness in place. In June, the Basket remainedvolatile, moving higher as Cyclone Gonu threatened petroleum infrastructure and shipping in the Middle East along with newgeopolitical developments pushed prices over $67/b before dropping back down to just over $65/b. The Basket stood at$65.56/b on 13 June. 

World economic growth is forecast at 4.9% for 2007, slightly higher than last month, on upward revisions for the EU,China, India and Russia. The forecast for the US has been revised down by another 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%,following a substantial downward revision in Q1 growth. However, recent data indicate growth in Q2 should be higher,despite persistent housing sector weakness. Paradoxically, the recent stronger reports have sparked a sell-off in the bondmarket on fears that stronger growth would spark inflation and lead to higher interest rates. This has had ripple effects inother parts of the world. The Japanese economy grew briskly in Q1 at a 3.3% annual rate, outpacing both the EU and theUSA. The positive economic environment in the EU is set to continue, with further improvements in employment. ForDeveloping Countries, the forecast is unchanged, but Indian growth is revised up by 0.2% to 8.2% and China is seen togrow at 10.2%, 0.3% higher than last month’s forecast. 

World oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, broadly unchanged from the previous forecast. Year-todate,US oil demand grew 2.3% or 0.47 mb/d, boosted by healthy gasoline consumption. In the Middle East, theconstruction and petrochemical sectors across the region were the main reason behind the strong oil demand growth, whilerobust economic activities in India pushed oil demand upward in April by 7.1% or 189,000 b/d. Due to the high summerseasonality in China, April apparent demand rose by a stunning 9.8% or 0.7 mb/d y-o-y to average 7.9 mb/d. China’sapparent oil demand in the second quarter is expected to grow by 0.5 mb/d to average 7.8 mb/d. For 2006, the world oildemand estimate was revised up by 0.15 mb/d from our last month’s estimate due to historical revisions in the DevelopingCountries. World oil demand growth for 2006 is now estimated at 1.0 mb/d or 1.1% to average at 84.3 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC supply in 2007 is expected to reach 50.6 mb/d, an increase of 1.1 mb/d over the previous year and a downwardrevision of 57,000 b/d from the last assessment. The revision was due to weaker-than-expected performance in the USA,Sudan and Russia, which were partially offset by gains in the UK and non-conventional oils in Germany. In 2006, non-OPECsupply averaged 49.5 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/d over 2005 and a slight upward revision over the lastassessment. Total OPEC crude production averaged 30.03 mb/d in May, down 82,700 b/d from the previous month.

  The continuation of refinery outages compounded the bullish sentiment of product markets, helping refinery margins tosurge across the globe. Gasoline stock-builds in the USA over the last few weeks have helped to ease the sentiment in theproduct market. If this trend continues, the market may be less affected by developments on the product side. However,due to the structural tightness of the US downstream sector, the market is likely to remain exposed to refinery glitches,which could support crude prices in the coming months. 

OPEC spot fixtures averaged 12.1 mb/d in May, which corresponds to a 280,000 b/d increase from the previous month buta decrease of 2.1 mb/d over a year ago. According to preliminary data, sailings from OPEC fell 1.4 mb/d to 23.1 mb/d,showing a y-o-y drop of 0.8 mb/d. The crude oil tanker market remained mixed with rates increasing for VLCCs from theMiddle East supported by the increased demand for tonnage. Eastern destinations supported rates at the beginning of themonth while Western destinations helped sustain the gains.

  Preliminary data show that OECD total net oil imports increased 230,000 b/d to average 25.8 mb/d in April, mostly drivenby net product imports which increased around 15% from previous month. US crude imports increased 280,000 b/d inpreparation for the summer season in May and product imports rose 370,000 b/d to 3.9 mb/d. In May, Japan’s net oilimports dropped 250,000 b/d with most of the losses coming from crude on the back of the peak refinery maintenanceseason. China’s crude oil imports showed a rise of 340,000 b/d in April to average 3.6 mb/d and product imports increased24%. China’s crude oil and product imports rose by more than 18% on an annual basis. India’s crude oil imports increasedsharply by 310,000 b/d in April averaging 2.5 mb/d with exports increasing around 90% on an annual basis. 

Total US commercial stocks rose by almost 22 mb in May, the largest increase since last September, to stand at 1,007 mb,indicating a surplus of 10 mb above the five-year average. Gasoline stocks rose 4.9 mb, reversing the downward trenddisplayed since February. These gains were driven by a significant jump in imports rather than production from refineries asthroughputs remained below 90% due to seasonal maintenance and outages. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway), totalcommercial oil stocks hit a record of 1,169 mb, implying a surplus of 66 mb above the five-year average. Japan’s commercialoil stocks fell 9.3 mb in April but preliminary data indicate a recovery in May due to the ongoing heavy maintenance. 

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 30.6 mb/d, representing a slight decline of 0.2 mb/d from the previousyear. On a quarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 31.11 mb/d in the first quarter and forecast at29.5 mb/d, 30.6 mb/d and 31.0 mb/d in the subsequent quarters. In 2006, demand for OPEC crude averaged 30.8 mb/d.