原油價(jià)格變動

在上月看漲因素延續(xù)的情況下，歐佩克5月份參考籃子價(jià)格再度上揚(yáng)，創(chuàng)下年內(nèi)新高。本月該籃子指數(shù)平均為62.16美元/桶，漲幅為4.86美元/桶。原油需求增加、精煉產(chǎn)品市場堅(jiān)挺和庫存減少是支撐市場的關(guān)鍵因素。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

2015年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期保持不變，為3.3%，與2014年的增長一致。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)2015年的增長率為2.1%，高于去年的1.8%。由于第一季度的增長低于預(yù)期，美國2015年的增長率已下調(diào)至2.4%。歐元區(qū)2015年的增長率修正為1.4%，日本的增長率也調(diào)整為1.0%。中國和印度對2015年的預(yù)期分別保持在6.9%和7.5%不變。

世界石油需求

2015年，全球石油需求增長為118萬桶/日，高于去年96萬桶/日的增長，與上月的報(bào)告持平。預(yù)計(jì)2015年下半年石油消費(fèi)總量將加快步伐，2015年石油需求總量將達(dá)到9250萬桶/日。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2015年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長68萬桶/日，與之前的預(yù)測一致，低于去年217萬桶/日的強(qiáng)勁增長。歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長19萬桶/日，至2015年平均620萬桶/日，2014年增長18萬桶/日。二級消息人士稱，在去年，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量上升至3098萬桶/日，上升了0.02萬桶/日。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

5月份，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場發(fā)展喜憂參半。美國駕駛季節(jié)的開始推高了汽油需求，達(dá)到了五年來的最低水平。這為桶頂?shù)牧芽p擴(kuò)展提供了強(qiáng)有力的支撐，抵消了桶底的疲軟。在亞洲市場，由于維修季節(jié)的緊張，煉油廠利潤率在區(qū)域需求增加的背景下有所上升。

油輪市場

受高噸位需求和活動增加的影響，5月份臟油輪市場對所有報(bào)告級別船舶的信心普遍改善。清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)平均下降，主要是因?yàn)樘K伊士西部的運(yùn)價(jià)疲軟。今年5月，歐佩克和中東的出航量逐月上升，除遠(yuǎn)東地區(qū)外，其他地區(qū)的出航量均有所改善。

股票變動

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）4月份商業(yè)石油庫存進(jìn)一步上升，達(dá)到27760萬桶。在這一水平上，庫存比五年平均水平高1.05億桶，其中原油和產(chǎn)品的盈余分別約為8900萬桶和1600萬桶。從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，4月份經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為61.3天，比五年平均水平高出3.0天。

供需平衡

預(yù)計(jì)2015年歐佩克原油需求為2930萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，比去年增加30萬桶/日。歐佩克2014年原油需求量預(yù)計(jì)仍保持在2900萬桶/日不變。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

Amid a continuation of the previous month’s bullish factors, the OPEC Reference Basketmoved up again in May to a new high for the year. The Basket averaged $62.16/b for themonth, representing a gain of $4.86/b. An increase in crude oil demand, firm refinedproduct markets and inventories drawdowns were key elements supporting the market. 

World Economy 

Expectations for global economic growth remain unchanged at 3.3% for 2015, in line withgrowth in 2014. The OECD is seen growing at 2.1% in 2015, up from 1.8% last year. USgrowth for 2015 has been revised down to 2.4%, due to the lower-than-expected growth inthe first quarter. Growth in the Euro-zone has been revised up to 1.4% for 2015 andJapan’s growth has also been adjusted higher to 1.0%. Expectations for China and India in2015 remain unchanged at 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand is seen growing at 1.18 mb/d in 2015, higher than in the previousyear’s growth of 0.96 mb/d and unchanged from last month’s report. Total oilconsumption is expected to pick up pace in 2H15, leading to a total oil demand of92.50 mb/d for 2015. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2015 is projected to grow by 0.68 mb/d, in line with the previousforecast and below last year’s strong growth of 2.17 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are forecast togrow by 0.19 mb/d to average 6.02 mb/d in 2015, following growth of 0.18 mb/d in 2014. InMay, OPEC production rose to 30.98 mb/d, up by 0.02 mb/d, according to secondarysources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product market developments in the Atlantic Basin were mixed during May. The start ofthe US driving season pushed up gasoline demand, hitting levels not seen in more thanfive years. This provided strong support to crack spreads on the top of the barrel andoffset the weakness seen at the bottom of the barrel. In the Asian market, refinerymargins strengthened on the back of higher regional demand amid tighteningsentiment due to the maintenance season. 

Tanker Market 

The dirty tanker market enjoyed a general improving sentiment in May for vessels in allreported classes on the back of high tonnage demand and increased activities. Cleantanker freight rates declined on average, mainly as freight rates reported on the West ofSuez were weak. In May, OPEC and Middle East sailings were higher month-on-month, asarrivals in all regions improved, except in the Far East. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose further in April to stand at 2,776 mb. At this level,inventories are 105 mb higher than the five-year average, with crude and productsindicating surpluses of around 89 mb and 16 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forwardcover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 61.3 days in April, 3.0 days higher than the fiveyearaverage. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 is projected at 29.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport and representing a gain of 0.3 mb/d over last year. The estimate for demand forOPEC crude in 2014 remains unchanged at 29.0 mb/d.