據預測，2003年世界國內生產總值將增長3.5%，比上個月的估計增長0.3%。這一增長反映了美國經濟復蘇的基礎不斷擴大，并已擴展到東南亞和日本。受10月和9月更好的就業(yè)數據支持，美國第三季度GDP年增長率高于預期，為7.2%。日本第三季度數據也超出預期，GDP年增長率為2.2%。然而，歐元區(qū)繼續(xù)落后于其他發(fā)達經濟體，同期增長1.6%。亞洲的增長預期變化最大。第三季度，中國經濟增長約9%，2003年全年GDP增長預期提高到8.5%。印度受益于一個非常平靜的季風季節(jié)，預計今年的經濟增長率將達到6.8%。2003年對亞太地區(qū)的估計也從3.6%上升到3.9%。對拉丁美洲和非洲的預測沒有明顯變化，因為2003年對發(fā)展中國家整體增長的估計上升了0.1%至3.6%?？紤]到第三季度全球經濟表現好于預期，對北美和日本2004年的預測有所增加。2004年對歐洲的預測沒有變化，但亞洲地區(qū)增長了0.1%。據預測，2004年全球經濟將增長4.1%，這是自1990年以來僅有的一次緩慢的年增長率。繼9月份的暴跌之后，歐佩克的一籃子參考原油價格上漲了2.32美元/桶或8.43%，至10月份的平均28.54美元/桶。過去一個月的強勁復蘇推動今年迄今的平均水平接近價格區(qū)間機制的上限，為27.91美元/桶，而9月底為27.84美元/桶。繼11月第一周小幅下跌1.73%后，該籃子指數持續(xù)反彈，在11月13日的周末平均為28.61美元/桶，11月19日接近30美元/桶大關，收盤價為29.79美元/桶。10月，產品價格上漲通常跟蹤三個市場的原油漲幅，每種產品的增量增長都要考慮到地區(qū)基礎。美國海灣和新加坡的煉油利潤率不錯，但鹿特丹的煉油利潤率則跌至負值。10月份原油運價波動較大，特別是超大型油輪運價，上半月超大型油輪的高噸位運價將中東兩條長距離航線的運價都壓低至近WS-60，在本月的最后一周，幫助利率升至非常高的水平。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的地區(qū)租船業(yè)務恢復了前兩個月的大部分虧損，10月份增加了380萬桶/日，至1543萬桶/日，這是2000年6月以來的最高水平。鑒于2003年和2004年經濟增長前景較好，世界石油需求預測分別上調15萬桶/日和31萬桶/日，至78.33萬桶/日和79.56萬桶/日。2003年，中國的實際需求預計將增長44萬桶/日，增長8.76%，這使中國在世界石油需求增長中處于前列。盡管中國在世界消費中的份額為7%，但今年中國在世界需求增長中的份額應達到33%。按第二來源計算，歐佩克10月份原油產量估計為2741萬桶/日，比9月份的數字增加了25萬桶。據預測，2003年非歐佩克國家石油供應量為4864萬桶/日，比2002年的4776萬桶/日多出88萬桶/日。預計2004年非歐佩克石油供應將達到4989萬桶/日，比2003年的預測增加124萬桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的凈出口量估計分別為556萬桶/日和634萬桶/日，預計2004年將增至685萬桶/日。10月3日至31日期間，美國商業(yè)地產和石油庫存幾乎保持不變，而原油庫存繼續(xù)上升，增加了630萬桶。在16歐元區(qū)，由于原油庫存增加了150萬桶，石油庫存總量減少了630萬桶，主要是由于中間餾分油中含有阿德克林。9月份，日本的商業(yè)石油庫存顯示為230萬桶，主要是由于煤油的增加。第三季度末，經合組織商業(yè)石油庫存較上季度強勁增長7100萬桶，目前較去年同期增長2300萬桶。

World GDP is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2003, a rise of 0.3% over last month’s estimate. This increase reflects thewidening base of the economic recovery that began in the USA and has spread to South East Asia and Japan. TheGDP of the US grew at higher than expected annual rate of 7.2% in the third quarter, supported by betteremployment data for October and September. Third quarter data for Japan also surpassed expectations with GDPrising by 2.2% at an annual rate. However, the Euro-zone continued to lag other advanced economies, growing by ameager 1.6% in the same period. Asia saw the largest changes in growth estimates. The Chinese economy grew by about 9% in the third quarter whilethe GDP growth forecast for 2003 as a whole was raised to 8.5%. India, which benefited from a very peacefulmonsoon season, is expected to see economic growth of 6.8% this year. The 2003 estimate for the Asia Pacificregion also increased to 3.9% from 3.6%. Projections for Latin America and Africa did not changed significantly asthe 2003 growth estimate for developing countries as a whole rose 0.1% to 3.6%. Forecasts for North America and Japan for 2004 were increased to take account of the better than expectedperformance the global economy in the third quarter. The forecast for Europe in 2004 was unchanged but the AsiaPacific region showed an increase of 0.1%. The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.1% in 2004, arapid annual pace that has been seen only once since 1990. Following the slump in September, the OPEC Reference Basket surged by $2.32/b or 8.43% to average $28.54/b inOctober. The strong recovery of the past month pushed the year-to-date average to approach the upper limit of theprice band mechanism at $27.91/b, compared to $27.84/b at the end of September. Following a small decline of1.73% in the first week of November, the Basket has made a sustained comeback, averaging $28.61/b for the weekending 13 November and approaching the $30/b mark on 19 November when it closed at $29.79/b. Product price increases generally tracked crude gains in all three markets in October, with regional fundamentalsfactored in the incremental rise of each product. Refining margins were good in the US Gulf and Singapore, butplunged into negative territory in Rotterdam. Crude freight rates fluctuated considerably in October, especially the VLCC rates where high tonnage availabilityduring the first half of the month depressed rates to nearly WS 60s on both long-haul routes out of the Middle East.Increasing oil supply, together with tight vessel availability, in the last week of the month helped rates to move up tovery high levels. OPEC area spot chartering regained most of the losses of the previous two month, increasing by3.8 mb/d to 15.43 mb/d in October, a level not seen since June 2000. Given higher prospects for economic growth in 2003 and 2004, world oil demand forecasts for these years have beenrevised up by 0.15 mb/d and 0.31 mb/d to 78.33 mb/d and 79.56 mb/d respectively. China’s expected rise in apparentdemand of 0.44 mb/d or 8.76% in 2003 places the country at the forefront of world oil demand growth. Despite amere 7% share of world consumption, China’s share of the world demand increase should reach 33% in the currentyear. OPEC crude oil production in October, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 27.41 mb/d, an increase of 0.25mb over the September figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is forecast at 48.64 mb/d, which is 0.88 mb/d morethan the 47.76 mb/d estimated for 2002. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 49.89 mb/d, an increase of1.24 mb/d over the 2003 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.34 mb/drespectively, and expected to rise to 6.85 mb/d in 2004. US commercial onland oil stocks remained almost unchanged during the period of 3-31 October, while crude stockscontinued their upward trend, increasing 6.3 mb. In Eur-16, total oil stocks decreased by 6.3 mb, mainly due to adecline in middle distillates, as crude oil stocks rose 1.5 mb. In September, Japan’s commercial oil stocks displayed aslight build of 2.3 mb, mainly due to an increase in kerosene. At the end of the third quarter, OECD commercial oilstocks registered a strong 71 mb build over the previous quarter to now stand 23 mb above the same period last year.