在連續(xù)三個月上漲之后，歐佩克參考籃子指數(shù)在4月份下跌，收于118.18美元/桶，跌幅為4.79美元或3.9%。由于與持續(xù)的地緣政治因素有關(guān)的風(fēng)險，價格仍在上漲?；@子價值的下降是在第二季度典型的低需求季節(jié)的第一個月開始的。在供應(yīng)增加和消費疲軟的情況下，原油價格一年多來首次進(jìn)入了持續(xù)上漲的狀態(tài)。原油價格下跌的原因是成品油價格從前幾個月的峰值水平回落。此外，全球供應(yīng)量的增加導(dǎo)致庫存增加，從而阻止了價格上漲。5月9日，歐佩克參考價格為109.85美元/桶。2012年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期保持在3.3%不變。美國繼續(xù)保持強(qiáng)勁勢頭，增長預(yù)測上調(diào)0.1個百分點至2.3%。相比之下，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)走弱，目前預(yù)計將收縮0.4%，而上個月的預(yù)測為負(fù)0.3%。日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期保持在1.8%不變。隨著經(jīng)合組織（OECD）的這些抵消性修正，出口導(dǎo)向型新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長也發(fā)生了變化。2012年，印度預(yù)計將增長6.9%，而中國預(yù)計增長8.2%?？傮w而言，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景依然脆弱，歐元區(qū)不確定性加劇，新興市場可能出現(xiàn)溢出效應(yīng)。2012年世界石油需求增長目前為90萬桶/日，與上一份報告基本持平?？紤]到美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定和日本核電站的關(guān)閉，世界石油需求增長——至少在短期內(nèi)——已經(jīng)停止了下降趨勢，并呈現(xiàn)出一定的增長。非經(jīng)合組織國家的石油需求也顯示出輕微改善。美國即將到來的駕駛季節(jié)可能會受到汽油零售價格上漲和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不確定性的影響。如果日本重新啟動核電站，日本的石油使用也可能放緩。預(yù)計2012年非歐佩克的石油供應(yīng)將增長60萬桶/日，2011年將增長10萬桶/日。這是對上一次報告50 tb/d的向上修訂。對今年增長的調(diào)整主要是由于2012年第一季度公布了實際生產(chǎn)的初步數(shù)據(jù)，特別是美國的數(shù)據(jù)。預(yù)計2012年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將比上年增加40萬桶/日。據(jù)第二位消息人士估計，今年4月，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為3162萬桶/日，較上月增加0.32萬桶/日。4月，成品油市場出現(xiàn)上揚，汽油趁著大西洋盆地產(chǎn)油人氣好轉(zhuǎn)，提前開季。這一點，再加上亞洲地區(qū)在煉油廠大修期間產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)緊張的額外支持，使得全球煉油廠利潤率得以提高。原油價格下跌也支撐了產(chǎn)品市場，4月份油輪市場漲跌互現(xiàn)，超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運價上漲，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪現(xiàn)貨運價下跌。較低的噸位需求和煉油廠維護(hù)推動蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪運價下降。超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運價的上漲是由更高的需求和浮動倉儲要求支撐的。4月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量增加了20%。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的出海量增加，北美的到港量增加。4月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存逆轉(zhuǎn)了上個月的增長，減少了430萬桶。美國股市仍較上年同期水平高出201萬股，較五年平均水平高出3080萬股。由于原油庫存增加1350萬桶，產(chǎn)品價格下跌1750萬桶。在日本，最新的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，3月份商業(yè)石油庫存增長了660萬桶，比一年前增加了140萬桶，仍比五年平均水平低520萬桶。原油庫存總量增加850萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存下降190萬桶。2011年歐佩克原油需求與上一次評估持平，為3010萬桶/日，較上年增長40萬桶/日。預(yù)計2012年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3000萬桶/日，與上一份報告中的水平相同，并較去年下降了10萬桶/日

After three consecutive monthly gains, the OPEC Reference Basket declined in April to settle at$118.18/b, representing a drop of $4.79 or 3.9%. Prices remain elevated by the risk premiumassociated with ongoing geopolitical factors. The decline in the value of the Basket came with thestart of the first month of the typically low demand season in the second quarter. Crude pricesshifted into contango for the first time in over a year amid higher supplies and weak consumption.The decline in crude oil prices occurred as refined product prices came down from the peak levelsseen in previous months. Moreover, rising global supply contributed to an increase in inventories,preventing prices from moving higher. On 9 May, the OPEC Reference Basket stood at $109.85/b.World economic growth expectations for 2012 remain unchanged at 3.3%. The US continues toenjoy solid momentum, with the growth forecast revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.3%. In contrast, the Eurozonecontinues to weaken and is now expected to contract by 0.4%, compared to the minus 0.3%forecast in the previous month. The growth forecast for Japan remains unchanged at 1.8%. Withthese offsetting revisions in the OECD, growth in the export-led emerging economies is alsounchanged. India is expected to expand by 6.9% in 2012, while China is projected to grow at a solid8.2%. Overall, the global economic outlook remains fragile, with heightened uncertainties in theEuro-zone and potential spill-over effects in the emerging markets.World oil demand growth in 2012 now stands at 0.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previousreport. Given the stabilization of the US economy and the shutdown of Japanese nuclear powerplants, world oil demand growth has – at least for the short-term – stopped its declining trend and isshowing some growth. Oil demand in non-OECD countries is also indicating a slight improvement.The upcoming driving season in the US might be affected by higher retail gasoline prices anduncertainty regarding economic developments. Japan’s oil usage also could slow if the country wereto restart its nuclear plants.Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2012, following an increase of 0.1 mb/d in2011. This represents an upward revision of 50 tb/d over the previous report. The adjustment to thisyear’s growth was mainly due to the release of preliminary 1Q12 data for actual production,particularly for the US. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils in 2012 are expected to increase by0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In April, total OPEC crude oil production, according to secondarysources, was estimated to average 31.62 mb/d, an increase of 0.32 mb/d over the previous month.Product markets showed an uptick in April with gasoline taking advantage of the improved productsentiment in the Atlantic Basin, ahead of the driving season. This, along with the additional supportfrom tight product supplies in the Asian region amid heavy refinery maintenance allowed refinerymargins to increase across the globe. The decline in crude oil prices also supported productmarkets.The tanker market saw mixed movement in April, with VLCC spot freight rates increasing andSuezmax and Aframax spot rates encountering declines. Lower tonnage demand and refinerymaintenance drove the decline in Suezmax and Aframax rates. The rise in VLCC spot freight rateswas supported by higher demand and floating storage requirements. In April, OPEC spot fixturesdecreased by 20%. Sailings from OPEC were higher and arrivals in North America increased.US commercial oil stocks in April reversed the build of the previous month, declining by4.3 mb. US stocks remain 20.1 mb above the year-ago level and 30.8 mb over the five-yearaverage. Products, which fell by 17.5 mb, were responsible for the decline, as crude stocks roseby 13.5 mb. In Japan, the most recent monthly data shows that commercial oil stocks increasedby 6.6 mb in March to stand 1.4 mb above a year ago, which was still 5.2 mb below the five-yearaverage. The total stock-build was concentrated in crude, which rose by 8.5 mb, while productinventories fell 1.9 mb.Demand for OPEC crude for 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at30.1 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.4 mb/d compared to the previous year. Demand for OPEC crudefor 2012 is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, the same level as in the previous report andrepresenting a decline of 0.1 mb/d from last year