10月份，歐佩克的一籃子參考原油價(jià)格上漲5.50美元/桶或8%，達(dá)到72.67美元/桶。在國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）對(duì)GDP數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行修正后，全球石油需求的上調(diào)增強(qiáng)了市場的看漲情緒。美元貶值和股票價(jià)格上漲也促成了油價(jià)上漲趨勢，同時(shí)美國汽油庫存出現(xiàn)反季節(jié)性下降。11月10日，這個(gè)籃子的價(jià)格為76.50美元/桶。最近的市場波動(dòng)表明，原油價(jià)格可能在不久的將來恢復(fù)到70美元的高位，價(jià)格走勢繼續(xù)受到經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和美元波動(dòng)的影響。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇，繼2009年增長1.1%后，預(yù)計(jì)2010年將增長2.9%。預(yù)計(jì)大部分增長將來自亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體。預(yù)計(jì)2009年和2010年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速分別為8.0%和8.5%，與上月持平。在史無前例的財(cái)政和貨幣刺激政策的推動(dòng)下，預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織2009年第3季度的產(chǎn)出將呈現(xiàn)正增長。不過，隨著政府支持力度的減弱，私人消費(fèi)支出何時(shí)會(huì)有足夠的增長，還有待觀察。預(yù)計(jì)2010年經(jīng)合組織所有主要地區(qū)都將恢復(fù)增長，其中美國增長1.4%，歐元區(qū)增長0.5%，日本增長1.1%。多數(shù)跡象表明，2010年世界石油需求增長將走高；然而，下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素凸顯了謹(jǐn)慎的必要性。2009年世界石油需求萎縮140萬桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)2010年世界石油需求將增長80萬桶/日，盡管潛在的疲弱經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可能會(huì)抑制未來一年的潛在需求增長。美國石油需求仍然是推動(dòng)2009年需求增長的主要因素。盡管夏末的表現(xiàn)有所改善，但最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，10月份的需求有所萎縮。預(yù)計(jì)非OPEC供應(yīng)量將在2010增加360個(gè)TB/D，達(dá)到51.2 Mb/d。巴西、阿塞拜疆、哈薩克斯坦、加拿大和美國被視為下一年增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)者，而墨西哥、英國和挪威預(yù)計(jì)將經(jīng)歷最大跌幅。預(yù)計(jì)2010年OPECNGLs和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到530萬桶/日，較上年大幅增長540噸/日。據(jù)估計(jì)，2009年非歐佩克的供應(yīng)量將增加410 tb/d，較之前的評(píng)估略有上升。10月份，歐佩克原油的平均產(chǎn)量為2899萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月高出約40噸/日。由于美國產(chǎn)品庫存減少、貨運(yùn)量增加以及工業(yè)部門需求相對(duì)較高，10月份產(chǎn)品市場情緒略有改善。然而，原油價(jià)格上漲已經(jīng)壓倒了產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的積極發(fā)展，并對(duì)煉油利潤率施加了壓力，特別是在大西洋盆地。盡管寒冷的冬季可能為成品油市場提供支持，并鼓勵(lì)煉油廠在未來幾個(gè)月增加產(chǎn)量，但過量的蒸餾油庫存可能進(jìn)一步限制煉油廠的運(yùn)營，影響原油庫存的變動(dòng)。歐佩克9月份的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量比上月增加了3%。來自歐佩克的航行相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。10月，原油油輪市場的運(yùn)價(jià)增長了11%，超大型油輪板塊增長了17%，蘇伊士型油輪板塊增長了7%。10月份，油輪的原油儲(chǔ)備量穩(wěn)定在約40 mb，但油輪上儲(chǔ)存的石油產(chǎn)品增加了約25 mb至90 mb。蘇伊士市場以東的muchfirmer產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)平均上漲2%。美國商業(yè)石油庫存10月份下降1940萬桶，至10890萬桶，為2007年12月以來的最大跌幅。汽油和餾分油庫存幾乎占抽簽量的一半。盡管如此，與五年平均水平相比，超額仍相當(dāng)可觀，約為7000萬桶。原油庫存下降170萬桶，將超額縮小至2200萬桶。雖然蒸餾出了430萬桶，但懸挑仍然很大。9月份，日本商業(yè)石油庫存總量逆季下降，下降了1100萬桶，初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示10月份進(jìn)一步下降了900萬桶。2009年，歐佩克原油需求量修正為70tb/d，目前為2870萬桶/d，比去年增加了230萬桶/d。2010年，石油輸出國組織原油需求量預(yù)計(jì)平均為2850萬桶/日，此前調(diào)整為110噸/日，這意味著與上一年相比下降了20萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged $5.50/b or 8% in October to reach $72.67/b. The bullishsentiment in the market was strengthened by upward adjustments to world oil demand followingrevision to GDP numbers by the IMF. US dollar depreciation and rising equity prices also contributedto the upward price trend along with counter-seasonal draws in US gasoline inventories. The Basketstood at $76.50/b on 10 November. Recent market volatility suggests that crude prices are likely toremain in the high $70s in the near future with price direction continuing to be impacted by economicdata and US dollar fluctuations. The world economy continues its recovery and is now forecast to grow by 2.9% in 2010 after acontraction of 1.1% in 2009. Most of the growth is expected to come from the emerging Asianeconomies. China is forecast to grow by 8.0% and 8.5% in 2009 and 2010 respectively, unchangedfrom last month. Fuelled by the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, OECD output isexpected to show positive growth in the 3Q09. Still, it remains to be seen when private consumptionexpenditures will pick up sufficiently as government support fades. All major OECD regions areprojected to return to growth in 2010 with the US forecast to grow at 1.4%, the Euro-zone at 0.5%and Japan at 1.1%. Most of the signs are aiming toward higher world oil demand growth in 2010; however, downwardrisk factors highlight the need for caution. World oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2010following a 1.4 mb/d contraction in 2009, although the potential weak economic recovery maydampen potential demand growth in the coming year. US oil demand remains the major factordriving 2009 demand growth. Despite the improved performance in late summer, recent dataindicates a contraction in demand in October. Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 360 tb/d in 2010 to reach 51.2 mb/d. Brazil,Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the US are seen to be the main contributors to next year’sgrowth, while Mexico, UK, and Norway are foreseen to experience the largest declines. OPECNGLs and non-conventional oils are projected to reach 5.3 mb/d in 2010, indicating a significantgrowth of 540 tb/d over the current year. In 2009, non-OPEC supply is estimated to increase by410 tb/d, representing a minor upward revision from the previous assessment. In October, OPECcrude production averaged 28.99 mb/d, around 40 tb/d higher than the previous month.Product market sentiment improved slightly in October due to product stock draws in the US,increasing freight movements and relatively higher demand from industrial sectors. However, risingcrude costs have overwhelmed positive developments in product prices and exerted pressure onrefining margins, especially in the Atlantic Basin. While a cold winter may provide support for productmarkets and encourage refiners to increase runs in the coming months, excessive levels of distillatestocks could further constrain refinery operations, impacting crude stock movements. OPEC spot fixtures increased in September by 3% compared to the previous month. Sailings fromOPEC were relatively steady. Freight rates in the crude oil tanker market increased by 11% inOctober with the VLCC sector increasing by 17% and Suezmax by 7%. Volumes of crude oil storedon tankers were steady at about 40 mb in October, but petroleum products stored on tankersincreased by about 25 mb to 90 mb. Product spot freight rates gained an average of 2% with a muchfirmer East of Suez market. US commercial oil stocks dropped by 19.4 mb in October to stand at 1,089 mb, the largest drawsince December 2007. Gasoline and distillate inventories accounted for almost half of the draw.Despite this draw, the overhang with the five-year average remains considerable at around 70 mb.Crude oil inventories dropped 1.7 mb, narrowing the overhang to 22 mb. Although distillates fell4.3 mb, the overhang remains large. In September, Japan total commercial oil stocks moved againstthe seasonal trend, falling 11 mb with preliminary data indicating a further decline of 9 mb inOctober.Demand for OPEC crude in 2009 was revised up 70 tb/d to now stand at 28.7 mb/d, representing adecline of 2.3 mb/d from last year. In 2010, demand for OPEC crude is expected to average28.5 mb/d, following an upward adjustment of 110 tb/d. This indicates a drop of 0.2 mb/d comparedto the previous year.